Iran and its biggest intersection: between suicide and a bitter and radical change to try to survive

The only options that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Weighing at your table does not even make a handful. They are: regime change or absolute change in behavior. Just these two there. For the time being there is no third alternative of output while United States and the theocratic regime has arrived at an unprecedented level of tension for the last 40 years.

The sanctions could quickly lead to an absolute collapse of their workforce in a climate of social unrest on the rise. Even before the warnings, the local economy was characterized by deep insecurity, low productivity and high inflation. Demonstrations against the capital are becoming more frequent and noisy.

Upon learning that he could no longer sell his barrels China, India and in six other countries, the Shiite authorities had a first blood reaction. Propagandistic and risky. They threatened to block the Strait of Ormuz, a fundamental channel for mineral trade and a gateway to the Persian Gulf. There the 3 is transported0% of the world's gross. Not only your own but also that of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and other producers.

Trying to completely close the pbad would be to cross one of the few red lines presented by regional news. Tehran He threatened several times but never played this dangerous card. I'm just going to do it now. Yes, on the other hand, he will begin to perform reckless actions by flirting with the precipice. As he does so far. The attack perpetrated against two Saudi ships, a Norwegian and another emirati Perhaps it was only a sample of the escalation at which the diet is arranged. Neighboring intelligence agencies that operate in the place attribute it to 99%.

In this way, he manages to be crouched and active in this strait without blocking it. Their attack launches – which respond to the IRGC- They will continue their sabotage, tending the area more and more. I bet for the moment neither Saudi Arabia nor the United Arab Emirates – two of their fierce enemies – will launch a direct attack on their territory. Yes, they could hit small boats, but that's not a big problem. For Iran, it is essential not to transfer armed conflict to their lands. He always avoided it.

The theocracy would not have the way to repel it. Despite the world's attempts to perceive it as an armament power, Tehran it does not have a modern infrastructure for an open war and on several simultaneous fronts. Much less if the conflict is opposed to countries with near-futuristic technology and aviation that exceeds it in power, capacity and number. How to win a confrontation without an advanced air force?

The regime is very weak militarily. Exaggerately more in the heavens. Their ships are old, almost obsolete and most of their war material goes back to the endless and bloody war years with Iraq, in the 80s. "In 10 hours, your air force would disappear only if you fight the United Arab Emirates.", says a retired American general who knows Middle East like little. Iran is 20 times bigger than the United Arab Emirates. However, the Sunni country far surpbades it in arsenal and training. And economy. What would happen if in a hypothetical contest, they added United States, Israel Saudi Saudi and other neighbors?

"This moment in history – because the enemy has entered the field of confrontation with us with all possible capabilities – is the most decisive moment of the Islamic revolution"says the general Salami Hossein of the IRGC Thursday morning. Rhetoric and reality are confused in the statements of the radical in uniform. In any case, thousands of jihadists have also been invited to watch the clergy..

Threats and increased presence of These United States in the region highlights another of the red lines that Iran should not cross. The escalation of hostilities proposed by the regime must have the necessary expertise not to put American life in jeopardy. It would be a fatal mistake to find an immediate and devastating response. Tehran knows it perfectly.

These groups are composed of Pakistani and Afghan mercenaries to whom the regime pays them a fortune. The salary of these entrepreneurs reproduces that of an Iranian doctor in his own country. Infinitely superior to that of a teacher or a worker. It is also a source of indignation and protest among the population. The little money he has is intended for foreign terrorists.

In addition, IRGC of Soleimani It keeps a third of the total budget of the nation. Citizens know that it is time for this money to shift to other priorities instead of funding the regime's maneuvers beyond its borders and its geopolitical goals. Among the mouths that feed the Shiite treasure is the most expensive: the terrorist organization Hezbollah.

Khamenei will move these chips into their area of ​​influence. The most important of them is precisely the Lebanese who could be his spearhead to harbad the North's strategic partner. States United In the region: Israel. He has already done so in the past. He will do it from Lebanon and Syria, where the presence of theocracy is more explicit. In this second country – where they and the Russians behave as if Bashar al-Assad do not exist – there are bases and Iranian missile launch sites that are on the Israeli radar. Tel Aviv He would settle his destruction in a few minutes when he feels that the danger becomes more tangible.

Meanwhile, to simulate the force, It is likely that the Supreme Leader will maintain threats through small actions and provocations. The breakdowns on four merchant ships are an example. There would be more. Of course: have the necessary caution not to exceed the limits that do not have emergency doors.

Another piece of these chess has been moved to the set. It's the one that moves the president Hbadan Rouhani. Nuclear After the sanctions that drown an already devastated economy, he warned Europe that it will not continue to limit its production of heavy water and enriched uranium. It is a threat that has sounded the alarm in the other signatory countries of the Common global action plan signed in 2015 and abandoned by the United States in 2018.

Rouhani He claims only one thing: financial oxygen before the punishments of Washington. Germany, United Kingdom and la France they prefer to hold the threat of a nuclear weapon at a distance. They must convince Donald Trump lift the sanctions. This will not happen for the moment despite the pressure they will exert.

The sky is hovering Khamenei It's getting dark. Know that is in a position of extreme weakness: It does not have the military capability to cope with an open war on its territory and much less durable. He does not have enough resources. The sanctions will end up drowning him economically and financially. It will not be easy for him to specify his nuclear threat. Too much pushing, it will also be against the European countries with which has a dialogue (for the moment) friendly. It will strike with its militias and terrorist groups, but without exaggerate. It must be surgical if you do not want to trigger a conflict that you can not control.

The process of rhetoric and escalation of actions will take a while. "I bet that in six months, Iran will sit down to finally talk with the United States, says senior government badyst Israel a Infobae. It is the same that explains that the only way out of theocracy is a "absolute change in behavior" What is this mutation? Goodbye to the nuclear program, last point of the rhetorical aggression and the absolute abandonment of the financing of terrorist groups abroad like Hezbollah. "It's hard to achieve, but it's the most realistic of the scenarios"he says.

For these hours, Khamenei it's discussed. Follow the advice of Soleimani, architect of hostilities and determined to get to a bloodier confrontation or more ready to the strategy of Rouhani? It is likely that you will use both: his general for climbing and his president for the diplomatic table. The first is not aware of the danger in which he is immersed and "is an extremist who only serves in irregular war situations, as in Iraq"explains the warned observer, whose second wishes the survival of part of his nuclear program.

One can imagine that a summit of the highest level will be realized before the end of the year, as it happened with North Korea and meetings between Jong Kim-a and Trump. However, an error of the head of the Qods Forces would collapse the regime and power that today focus on ayatollah and the mullahs for 40 years, it would collapse.