Iran, another scenario where global tensions are disputed

The importance of this fact lies in the participation of the main state actors. As soon as UKAlthough it's positioned contrary to Washington's unilateral decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal with Iran and impose sanctions on the regime, it is trying to preserve at all costs his "special historical relationship" with the government. United States. The British government is now a defeated boxer who is on the defensive in the last round, waiting for the buzzer to sound for a decent technical tie that will allow him to keep his head up for the next fights after the Brexit. This is clearly reflected in the hesitations and the eloquent errors: on the one hand, we find a United Kingdom asking for moral and executive support for NATO; that is to say, the same (former) European allies, Germany and France, with whom he lives in an eternal and tense dispute over Brexit. And to continue to engage on the ground – without any sense for the Iranian logic – the British intelligence services accused Moscow of helping Tehran to falsify the GPS signal to seize its ship, to which they added that "the Guardian Corps of the Islamic Revolution and the Russian intelligence services collaborated very closely in Syria to protect and promote their interests." Not only did they discover nothing but they did not generate a contribution to the conflict.

It is obvious that any state – including a historic economic, political and military power such as the United Kingdom – which is experiencing a huge internal disorder that will inevitably lead to various structural changes that will affect most of its citizenship, will never pbad. a complex diplomatic scenario and leave unscathed. The inner cohesion to face the world, one would say. Boris Johnson's recent confirmation as prime minister has allowed him to put in place, at least, a certain "institutional order" allowing the UK government to deal with current dilemmas at the regional and global levels.

As for his partner, as it happens (almost) always, the economic "bombardment" is the one that hurts the most. US sanctions, using the so-called Iranian nuclear power, have had a negative impact on a historical enemy member of its so-called "axis of evil". However, and beyond the objective justified or not Donald Trump, your reading of the potential conflict scenario might find some limitations if you understand the history, culture and religion of the Persian state.

In this regard, it should be noted that since the 1979 revolution, the Iranian State has adopted the form of the Islamic Republic; where the supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Jamenei since 1989, is not only responsible for defining and controlling the general policy of the state (for which he is above President Hasan Rohaní ), but He is also commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces and controls the intelligence operations and the security of the state.

Therefore, knowing the US power differential (Iranian defense spending – about $ 18 billion a year – is 40 times lower than that of the United States), Iran, a medium-power military, no has never feared or refused to struggle beyond the goals of power and wealth. Iraq, Israel and Saudi Arabia have seen it. In this sense, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard (Pasdaram), the religious militia (Basij), fighter jets or the fast ships of the Persian navy, do not hesitate to embark with enthusiasm in all kinds of ways. asymmetric actions, including suicide bombers. Moreover, a possible aggressive reaction from the West would not be relegated to its own territory: the Iranian government is already trying to extend the conflict to other countries where it has the support of many Shiite populations: the Houthis in Yemen, the Hazaras in Afghanistan, 60% of the Iraqi population, the Alawis in Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the vast Shia majority of strategic Bahrain, in addition to the Iranian diaspora in the world. And even the Shia minority (about 5% of the population) living in Saudi Arabia could be mobilized, not to mention the support that can be provided by Hamas, an organization that, although Sunni, may feel obliged to make the favors of fed by Iranian economic and military resources for years.

When the Islamic Revolutionary Guard shot down the unmanned American plane earlier this month, it sent a clear message to the United States: "The Iranian borders are the" red line "", published in a statement from the Persian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Despite this specific fact, to which the nuclear conflict adds, the US government continues its aggressive but meaningless rhetoric in terms of actual execution. After the unfinished threats against North Korea and Venezuela, the demolition of the drone has resulted in a new threat of the Trump war via Twitter – as it usually does -; However, the president himself suspended the retaliatory air attacks a few minutes before the acts began.

In return, he continues to insist on economic sanctions – a foreign policy rather than recurring in American history – by ending exemptions granted to oil buyers or by impeding exports to suppliers of oil. 39, Persian State, among others; this has affected the value of the rial, its currency, the decline in investment and the shortage of basic necessities for the population. In short, the ultimate goal of the White House seems to be that Iran collapses economically in a short time and generates a kind of internal subversion that puts the current government in check. However, the recent death sentence of most of the 17 agents who allegedly worked for the CIA in strategic areas and industries, all Iranian citizens, shows us how far we are from that.

For its part, Iran enjoys the explicit and implicit support of China, in the current logic of geopolitical bipolarization since the badignment of the current US President. As for the first, Moscow has already shown its power and influence in an adjacent geographical space, such as Syria, and has faced Washington's ambitions. And he will do it in every area of ​​influence where he is geopolitically immersed in a scenario involving NATO and its missile defense strategy, as opposed to the vision of Western Europe that argues that it must respond to what they call an "aggressive" advance of the government of Vladimir Putin in the areas of influence of the former Soviet Union.

China, for its part, is not only the main importer of Iranian oil, but the interest of Xi Jimping is part of a broader context that implies access to the Mediterranean – and therefore the European market – to a series of agreements and projects carried out as part of the "New Silk Road": that it is a railway or a port, of a road or river – with its various ramifications in different economic zones – Beijing recognizes Tehran as a key ally in its multiplier logic.

Moreover, it can be said that Iran is an ally which, given its geographical position and hydrocarbon capabilities, plays a relevant role as an articulator in a tripartite approach. In this sense, Rohani witnessed the historic signing of the Russian gas supply agreement between Russia and China in 2015, which provided for investments of 400,000 million – after Western sanctions against Russia for Crimea -; from which the government, from that moment, also engaged in discussions, agreements and contracts with companies of the Asian giant to work together; not only in the sale of gas and oil, but also in the financing of hydrocarbon exploitation and exploration projects, as well as for the construction of ports and railways supporting the pipeline.

Finally, and given the scenario described, what we can say is that Iran has refused to negotiate as long as it is subject to the sanctions imposed; In addition, he redoubled his efforts and threatened to increase the purity of uranium enrichment beyond the limit of 3.67%, agreed upon upon signature in 2015, and aimed at preventing the Persian state from producing material for military purposes. In the midst of pbadages, counterpoints and ambiguities, the only thing we can say today is that, even if some are wondering how far this conflict can get worse with borders that dangerously involve high global politics Abbas Mousavi, spokesperson for the Department of National Defense. A foreigner from Iran, he clearly explained the current and future position of his country. Is there any sanction that the United States has not imposed on our country and our people in the last 40 years ?, he said at a recent conference Press. then calmly ask yourself, "And what did they accomplish?".

(*) Economist and Doctor in International Relations. Author of the book "The Anesthetized Society. The global economic system from the point of view of the citizens. "