Is the apocalypse coming? UN report paints devastating scenario for decades to come

Climate change it will change dramatically and irreversibly life on Earth over the next 30 years, from water scarcity and malnutrition to the exodus and extinction of species, according to a draft of a key UN report obtained by the AFP.

The devastating effects on nature and humanity will accelerate regardless of the rate of reduction in greenhouse gas emissions achieved, warns the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

“Life on Earth can overcome major climate change evolving into new species and creating new ecosystems ”, according to the technical summary of this 137-page project. But “humanity cannot” abandon the text.

The 4,000-page report, which must be approved by the 195 member states of the IPCC, paints a much darker picture than the previous one in 2014.

But it will not be published until February 2022That is to say after the major international meetings on climate and biodiversity at the end of the year.

Some scientists believe that its disclosure it will come too late.

About ten years ago, limiting warming to + 2 ° C compared to the pre-industrial era had become a reasonable objective. But now the IPCC estimates that an increase of more than 1.5 ºC it could already lead to “consequences progressively serious over the centuries and irreversible in certain cases”.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimates that there is a 40% chance that the ceiling of +1.5 ºC is exceeded for at least one year within the next five years.

“The worst is yet to come: (Global warming) will affect the lives of our children and grandchildren much more than ours, ”warns the IPCC.

In addition, only the increase recorded since the middle of the 19th century of 1.1 ° C will already have more and more serious repercussions, even if CO2 emissions are now under control and the objectives of the Paris Agreement to limit the warming are achieved. + 2 ºC and if possible at 1.5 ºC.

And with the current trend, the world it is heading for an increase of +3 ºC.

Life

Thus, it is probably too late to save some animals and plants: “Even at + 1.5 ° C, living conditions will change, exceeding the capacity of some organisms to adapt”, according to the report, which quotes in example coral reefs. , on which some 500 million people depend.

Also arctic animals, a region that heats up three times faster than the world average, they could disappear, eradicating the way of life of the peoples of the region.

Climatic disturbances also cause the “multiplication of sudden losses” in food production systems such as agriculture, animal husbandry and fisheries.

Despite the inevitable worsening of living conditions on Earth, the world is not prepared to face it: “Current levels of adaptation they are insufficient to respond to future climate risks, ”warns the IPCC.

At + 2ºC, up to 80 million more people who will go hungry in 2050 and 130 million people could slide into extreme poverty over the next decade.

By 2050, hundreds of millions of coastal city dwellers will be threatened by more frequent flooding, due to the rise in sea level which will also cause great migrations.

With +1.5 ºC, in cities, 350 million additional inhabitants will suffer from water scarcity, and they will be 400 million with +2 ºC. With that extra half-degree, 420 million more people they will be exposed to extreme heat waves.

“The costs of adaptation in Africa will increase by tens of billions of dollars annually above +2 ºC ”, foresees the report.

The project also highlights the danger of spillover effects. Some regions, such as eastern Brazil, Southeast Asia, central China, and almost all coastal areas they could endure three or four weather disasters simultaneous and even more: heat waves, droughts, cyclones, fires, floods, mosquito-borne diseases …

He also cites the harmful effects of human activity, such as the destruction of habitats, overexploitation of resources, pollution, invasive species, spread of disease …

“The world is facing complex and overlapping challenges“said Nicholas Stern, a climate economist, who was not involved in the report.

“If we don’t face everyone at the same time, we will not overcome any“, he adds.

Optimism?

The project also highlights the “Turning points” climatic conditions, likely to radically and irreparably change the climate system.

An example is melting ice caps Greenland and West Antarctica, which contain enough water to raise the sea level by 13 meters. Scientists establish this point of no return at a temperature rise of more than 2 ° C.

Another case could happen in the Amazon, one of the lungs of the planet, which warming could turn into a savannah.

The good news is that solutions to these problems could have positive ripple effects.

For example, conservation and mangrove restoration and underwater kelp forests could increase CO2 storage, protect coasts from submersion, provide habitat for many species, and feed coastal populations.

While some negative effects are inevitable in the short term, the report also leaves room for optimism: Humanity can still hope to stop warming in the second half of the 21st century, by taking decisive action now, he says.

“Need a radical transformation of processes and behavior at all levels: individuals, communities, companies, institutions and governments ”, advocates the project.

“We need to redefine our way of life and consumption,” he concludes.

Source: AFP