It does not take off: the first half of Bolsonaro, marked by disappointment

RIO DE JANEIRO.- Owner of a beauty salon, Carioca Luana Monteiro was certain that before the presidential elections last year and she reiterated to her clientele under the Mantra form: the far right

Jair Bolsonaro

He was the only one able to change Brazilian politics, to clean up the legacy of corruption that had accumulated within left-wing Workers' Party (PT) governments, to revive economic growth and restore the economy. Order in Brazil after the turbulent past years.

Barely six months after the inauguration of Bolsonaro, Monteiro, 52, is full of doubts, but is embarrbaded to share them aloud in his premises in the Botafogo district, in the southern zone of Bolsonaro.

Rio de Janeiro

"I'm trying not to talk about politics there because I regret all the trust I've placed in Bolsonaro and I know my clients agree that things do not happen. not as expected. " Everyday, I wonder if anyone has not benefited me. my frustration, my anger and my fears, "he said.
THE NATION on the sidewalk, while smoking a cigarette with anxiety. "I'm afraid to think at the end," he added.

Like her, thousands of Brazilians who supported Bolsonaro's candidacy today feel cheated. According to the latest poll Ibope, the new president was removed from 49% in January, against 49% in January, while the number of people who fail has increased from 11% to 32%, and that of those who consider it. the regular rate rose from 26% to 32%. The reasons for such a rapid erosion of popularity are superfluous.

In his speech on a so-called "new policy" (although he spent 28 years as a deputy), Bolsonaro came into direct conflict with the traditional forces of Congress, where his small liberal social party (PSL) Is revealed to be totally ineffective for generating consensus and building a stable coalition

Thus, the two main legislative proposals of the government, namely an ambitious pension reform and a package of measures against corruption and crime, have not yet been approved by the lower house. For its part, the Senate has already overturned controversial presidential decrees aimed at easing the carrying of firearms.

"With his attacks on" old politics "and his lack of articulatory capacity, Bolsonaro has squandered the huge political capital he has entered in. He has spoiled the possibility of a honeymoon with Congress that allow the other presidents to advance their projects. " explained Paulo Calmon, professor of political science at the University of Brasilia.

Inside Plbadto Palace, internal struggles also weakened the executive and created further instability. The most difficult clashes took place between the ministers of the army and the ideological wing of the government, composed mainly of the Bolsonaro clan – the president and three political sons – and several key advisers, all disciples of the philosopher from the far right Olavo de Carvalho.

Between these struggles and the first allegations of alleged corruption in the PSL's electoral financing, the first semester ended with four ministers outside the cabinet.

In addition, in recent weeks, the figure of "Superintendent" of Judge Sergio Moro, star of the Lava Jato operation, was very worn by revelations of alleged improper communications during these anti-corruption investigations between prosecutors and the prosecutor. magistrate of the time.

Controversies

To all these incidents, Bolsonaro reacted bragging, attacking via his account on Twitter and endilgando the absolute representation of the "popular will". It has not stopped raising controversy with its always-bewildering opinions transmitted through social networks – as was the case with the obscene video of Carnival, which only serves to exacerbate polarization within. electoral logic and to divert attention from the real problems of the country. .

Meanwhile, the economic scenario shows no signs of improvement; completely the opposite. The GDP contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter, the unemployment rate remains higher than 12% and growth forecasts, which after the Bolsonaro victory were 3% for this year, have already fallen to a draw 0. 8% (less than the 1% increase occurred each year from the administrative cap of former President Michel Temer, who ruled between 2017 and 2018).

The only positive indicator last week was that the delayed pension reform proposal had finally been approved by the House of Commons Special Committee.

But there is still a long way to go before this project, which markets deem essential to end Brazil's growing budget deficit and pave the way for significant growth.

"The political performance of the Bolsonaro government has been disappointing in the face of great expectations," warned badyst Rafael Cortez. "The president's political mistakes have compounded economic challenges and triggered new warnings of instability." the consulting firm Tendencias, in San Pablo.

From now on, the Brazilian and international investors' great hope is that, despite the government's lack of skills, pension reform will be approved sooner or later in the second half of the year.

Remains the question of whether Bolsonaro will have learned the lessons of his first six months under the Brazilian presidency and sharpened his survival instinct or will he continue to adopt the behavior that he has had until now , accentuating its decline.

A start dominated by conflict

Braked proposals

The Bolsonaro Social-Liberal Party (PSL) has proved ineffective in building a stable coalition in Congress. The two main legislative proposals of the government, namely an ambitious pension reform and a package of measures against corruption and crime, have not yet been approved by the lower house. The Senate has already overturned the president's controversial decrees aimed at easing the carrying of firearms.

Internal struggles

Internal struggles have weakened executive power and created increased instability. The most difficult clashes took place between the ministers of the army and the ideological wing of the government, composed mainly of the Bolsonaro clan and several key advisers, all followers of the far-right philosopher Olavo de Carvalho. In addition, the figure of "superminister" of judge Sergio Moro, Lava Jato's ex-star, was very worn after a portal denounced the fact that several prosecutors had acted deliberately and even coordinated with Moro to harm the former president Luiz Lula da Silva.

The ties

The attitude of Bolsonaro did not help either. The president responded with bravado, Twitter attacks and endilgándose the absolute representation of the "popular will". He raised controversy with his views on social networks that have helped to exacerbate polarization and divert attention from the real issues.

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