Italy: municipal elections could change the direction of the right | Today and tomorrow, voting takes place in 1,348 districts across the country

From Rome. On October 3 and 4, they will be elections in 1,348 municipalities in Italy, including five of the country’s main cities (Rome, Milan, Turin, Naples and Bologna), for which they are called to vote about 12 million people. But the forecasts which have been published by numerous polls after more than a year and a half of the pandemic, present a rather uncertain outlook but which this could produce some changes within the right wing, especially in Matteo Salvini’s La Liga.

In two regions (equivalent to the Argentine provinces), Tuscany (the Florence region) and law (the Rome region) will also vote to elect two new deputies who will have to replace two who have resigned because they are assigned to other positions. In the region of Calabria (South of the country) will also vote to replace the regional authorities.

Electoral Veda

Since September 17, it is forbidden to disseminate new election polls so as not to influence the result of the vote and until then the figures were not clear. The ban on disseminating surveys also includes the second round, which will take place on October 17 and 18 between the two main candidates who did not exceed 50% of the favorable votes on October 3 and 4.

Many candidates present themselves as representatives of the center-left (Democratic Party -PD-, 5-star Movement -M5S-, Italia Viva by Matteo Renzi, socialists and communists) and of the right and center-right (Forza by Silvio Berlusconi Italia, the League of the far right Matteo Salvini, and Fratelli d’Italia -FDI- of the far right Georgia Meloni). Sometimes they are presented as alliances from the start. Most of the time, however, they calculated not to ally with their friends until the second round.

In some municipalities such as Rome, candidates for mayor are numerous (23 in Rome), even from very small parties. But they are teaming up with other parties to vote in the second round the candidate of their political tendency (center-left, center-right) who obtained the most votes in the first round, thus negotiating a position or a role in the Council. Municipal.. An agreement for the second round would also pave the way, according to analysts, for possible alliances before the next election of the new president of the republic. (voted only by parliamentarians), in January, and for the political elections of 2023.

In Rome, apart Virginia Raggi, current mayor of M5S to be nominated again, the first three candidates are Roberto Gualtieri of the PD, Enrico Michetti of the center-right and Carlo Calenda, a former PD who presents his own list. Raggi, who has not had a highly regarded career, is helped at all costs by her fans. The founder of M5S, the actor Beppe Grillo, uploaded a photo montage of Raggi dressed as in ancient Rome, with a warrior’s helmet and shield, and captioned “Virginia, Courageously Forward!”.

According to some surveys, the center-left could get more votes than the right and the center-right in Milan, Bologna and Naples. But the outcome of the elections in Rome and Turin is still uncertain. Raggi, according to the polls, could fall behind the center-right and center-left candidates in the first round results.

The case of Turin

Turin is the other rare case. Turin and Rome are currently run by two women, both from M5S. According to a survey by the Luigi Bobbio Center commissioned by the University of Turin and published before September 17, 42% of those questioned in this city did not answer the question of whether or not they would vote, since the vote no. is not compulsory in Italy. They also did not answer who they would vote for. Traditionally regarded as the industrial heart of Italy – as it has always been the basis of Fiat among other companies – Turin has a long tradition of people who do not vote. In 2016, for example, 42.82% of the population with the right to vote did not vote. Five years earlier, 34.5% had not voted. For this reason, some media have claimed that in Turin the candidate “Mr. abstentionism.” Other polls indicate on the contrary that in Turin the fight will be very hard, because the candidates will obtain a similar number of votes, about 40 percent of preferences.

The M5S, which in the last municipal elections of 2016 and in the policies of 2018 was among the most voted parties, has lost many voters in recent years but could nevertheless become the needle of the scales, that is to say change the panorama of Rome. and Turin if in the second round if they ally with the center-left or the center-right. The current Minister of Relations with Parliament was in favor of a possible alliance with the PD during the election, Federico D’Inca, M5S. And this arrangement seemed very good to the leader of the PD, Enrico Letta. “I think he said something very wise that I share,” Letta said. It is part of our spirit of convergence with which we try to work for the broadest and most incisive coalition possible ”.

Center right changes

What seems clearer to analysts of the Italian press is that these elections could considerably limit the leadership that Matteo Salvini had at the center-right at the national level. Showing the polarization of the country – another of the problems facing Italy -, These elections could certainly pave the way for the far right Georgia Meloni as the leader of the entire right-center-right arc. His party, the FDI, is not part of the current government led by Mario draghi, unlike La Liga and Forza Italia. And that perhaps favors her among “No vax” (who refuse to be vaccinated) and “no Green Pass” (They reject the green pass that the Italian Ministry of Health gives after the second dose of the anticovid vaccine and which allows circulation in the workplace and in Europe). Meloni has apparently gotten good opinions from critics, who only know how to hurl insults at the government when in fact he has handled the pandemic well. The government is made up of opposition groups like the PD, M5S, Forza Italia and La Liga (Salvini doesn’t spare the critics anyway) because the pandemic and the economic aid that Europe has allocated to each country to face this crisis, have pushed these parties to accept to take up the challenges of the moment under the coordination of an economist with a great experience of the international banking world like Draghi.

The center-right candidate in Rome, Enrico Michetti, A lawyer who has defined the coronavirus as something of little importance, officially does not belong to any of the parties that will support him but has apparently received the most support from Meloni. If he manages to place first or second among the most voted in these elections, he could also help to lower the importance of Salvini at the national level. Indeed, the polls carried out by the company IPSOS on September 14 indicate that the League would obtain 20.5% of the vote while the FDI would only reach 18.8%. Another Secure Web Gateway (SWG) survey spoke up 20 percent for the League and 21 percent for the IDF.