Italy: the contagion curve increases due to the new …

From Rome

The new contagion curve is developing rapidly in Italy, in part due to the English variant of the coronavirus which is 37/40% more contagious than the original virus, according to the Higher Institute of Health (ISS). And no longer attack the youngHealth Minister Roberto Speranza said at a press conference after Prime Minister Mario Draghi signed a new decree with restrictions. But the growth of the contagion curve it is also due to the South African variant, which has already caused the first two deaths in the north of the country, the Brazilian and the Nigerian, which were recently discovered in the peninsula.

In general, health experts estimate that viral variants account for 50/60% of new cases of covid and that in 15 days the growth of the contagion curve will reach its highest peak. The ISS also warned that for the first time since the start of the pandemic, the highest values ​​of infected aged 15 to 19 have been recorded (around 200 cases per 100,000 inhabitants). In the past month, for example, 6,000 students and teachers who are covid positive have been detected in the region of Emilia Romania alone.

Vaccinations, on the other hand, because of production problems encountered by pharmaceutical companies (Pfizer and AstraZeneca among them) but also because of problems of organization of distribution on Italian territory, they move very slowly. There are only 1.5 million people vaccinated with both doses, which means a minimum figure when it comes to 40 million who would need the vaccine. For that, some political parties are pushing for the Russian vaccine Sputnik V to be adopted as well, which has not been officially accepted by the European Medicines Agency, but this is already used in many other countries like Argentina.

For all these reasons, the government of Mario Draghi was forced to publish the decree on Tuesday which includes new restrictive measures, from the ban on travel between the regions of Italy (except for justified reasons), to the closure of businesses, restaurants and schools, primary and secondary, and universities. The spread of covid among young people alarmed the government, which preferred to send nearly one student to three of the Italian schools.

Yellow, orange and red

The country will continue to be divided into colors (white, yellow, orange and red) depending on the severity of the situation. Blanco is just the island of Sardinia. Restrictions at all grade levels, from kindergarten to high school, will apply mainly in the red regions (Molise and Basilicata) and the red provinces and municipalities such as Perugia, Pistoia, Siena, Brescia, Bologna from tomorrow, in addition to 11 other municipalities where the contagion has exceeded certain limits, regardless of the color of the region. In the orange regions (including Abruzzo, Tuscany, Umbria, Lombardy, Campania, Piedmont) and yellow (Veneto, Liguria, Lazio, Sicily, Calabria, among others) they will go to school ( and apparently also at the University) for shifts, up to 50% of the students in each class at a time. But that will depend on the contagion data in each area. If the city or town reaches 250 or more infected people per 100,000 inhabitants, they will have to close schools and universities.

The decree will apply from March 6 to April 6, that is, it will end after Holy Week., dates that have always been important for Italy, not only from the religious point of view, but by various family gatherings foreseen at the time by the Italian tradition. But, apparently, this year, like last year, they will come to nothing.

“The contagion curve is increasing significantly, we have to fight it energetically,” said Health Minister Roberto Speranza, “From all regions there are indicators that speak of the increase in the curve. The number of infections has risen dramatically over the past week. The next few weeks will not be easy, “he added. In the last week of February, in fact, the country rose from 13,452 new cases on the 21st. February to 17,455 new cases on February 28. And in the regions, the significant increases also began in the last week of February.

Speranza also said at the press conference that the government “considers it important to differentiate the territories by color as this allows us to give the appropriate response to each situation. The actions taken are important and necessary. To rebuild the country, for the development of the country, we must overcome the pandemic ”.

The new decree recalls certain measures already respected in many regions, such as the “curfew” between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. and the impossibility of moving from one region of the country to another. Local flights will, in principle, be limited between regions (except for documented work or emergency reasons). And about international flights, the only thing that the decree says is that Italy has expanded the list of countries interested in “covid free” flights which are promoted and which require, among other things, levies on boarding and upon disembarkation. On the other hand, we are talking emphatically about the creation of a “vaccination passport” which should be presented by those who travel, although there is still no decision in this regard.

In the red zones, all businesses except supermarkets, pharmacies and other essentials will be closed. As for the restaurants, they can be open until 6:00 p.m., but seated consumption is only allowed in the white and yellow areas and for a maximum of 4 people per table. The sale of take-away meals is authorized until 10 p.m.

All events involving a crowd of people in closed or open spacessuch as gymnasiums, swimming pools, fairs, discotheques, conference or concert halls, theaters, cinemas, will be banned until March 27 in all regions. But then some of these rooms will be able to open as long as the seats are pre-assigned and spaced.

The economic impact

Another encouraging news for Italians is added to the panorama of infections. In 2020, gross domestic product (GDP), an important indicator of an economy’s progress, fell 8.9%, in part because industrial production fell 11.5%. GDP data resembles that of Italy in 1997, experts say. According to official data from ISTAT (Italian Institute of Statistics), there has also been a considerable drop in domestic demand since, among other things, household spending fell by 10.7%, largely because some family members remained unoccupied. Still according to Istat, the unemployment rate was 9% in December 2020. For young people under 25, unemployment reached 29.7%. More than 500,000 people were unemployed in 2020.