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President Jair Bolsonaro He promised to break with "old politics" and unblock the economy at the beginning of his government, but the beginning of his tenure at the head of Brazil was marked by power struggles and mistakes this has eroded their popularity and challenged their reforms.
The former army captain, nicknamed "the trump of the tropics" because of his admiration for the US president, has kept some of the promises of the first hundred days of his government, which will materialize Wednesday, with the Authorization of the possession of weapons or the launch of privatizations.
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But intrigues, divisions and awkwardness put an end to the euphoria of the markets and sectors that voted for the right-wing candidate, thus ending the decades of center-left and center-left governments.
Thus, Bolsonaro knows the worst evaluation of the first three months of a first mandate since the new democratization of Brazil in 1985, according to a survey published this Sunday. The investigation of Datafolha reveals that 30% of Brazilians judge their government "bad or bad", while 32% deem it "good or excellent" and 33% "regular".
However, 59% of respondents expect the ultra-right leader to do "good or excellent" management. Before starting his term on January 1, this percentage was 65%, according to Datafolha.
"It would not be an understatement to say that the performance of the president so far has been disappointing," said Thomaz Favaro of Control Risks, a political risk control consultancy. "There was a false perception that Bolsonaro had come with a very strong support base and I think we are now starting to see that maybe he's not that strong," he adds.
Bolsonaro won with simple messages that would put an end to rampant crime, violence and corruption.
But the current president, who for decades as a deputy has become better known for his racist, misogynistic and homophobic insults and statements and his defense of the military dictatorship (1964-1985) than for his legislative work, discovers that his style inflexible and your inclination for Twitter They do not work in Congress, where they do not have a majority.
His unsustainable pension reform project is stalled after a dispute with key political allies.
"In recent weeks, we have really seen the side of Bolsonaro that people feared the most," said William Jackson, an economist at London-based Capital Economics. "His lack of experience in government, exemplified by the deterioration of his relations with Congress, and his struggles to maintain his coalition, seem to have led to paralysis in policy-making."
In recent days, the President has given the impression of adopting a more conciliatory tone, by organizing meetings with leaders of different parties.
He may have finally accepted the "compromises" of Brazilian politics, says David Fleischer, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Brasilia. But it also risks failing key reforms and the government "drifting until 2022," he adds.
Bolsonaro has won a few victories since taking office on January 1st.
These include the flexibilization of gun ownership laws and the concessioning of 12 airports, as part of successful bid solicitations, which have been seen as evidence of the foreign investor confidence.
But it will be harder to get more controversial policies adopted in the Congress' heterogeneous lower house, where his liberal social party control only 54 of the 513 seats.
This means that he will be forced to enter into ad hoc alliances with the legislators of several parties belonging to caucuses "3 B": Bible, Bullet and Ox, ie the evangelicals, the lobby of weapons and advocates of agribusiness. .
The confusion affects the executive itself, plagued by factional fighting including the army, ultraconservative ideologues and the president's children. All compete for greater political influence.
President "is constantly on the line""Favaro explains, for whom" Bolsonaro's strategy depends on his political ability to create a viable coalition in Congress, which is complicated because we now find that the approval rate of the president has decreased. "
The former captain's popularity, which was 67% in January, fell to 51% in March, the worst recorded by a president since his first term in his first three months of leadership.
A series of errors and horrors have further undermined Bolsonaro's credibility and laid bare the inexperience of his government.
The recent initiative of the President to commemorate the coup of the military state of 1964 provoked contempt and protests. And his statement, during a visit to the Holocaust Museum in Israel, this month, that the Nazis were "left behind" was ridiculed.
The promise to transfer the Brazilian embbady to Israel to Jerusalem, for the time being postponed, may also provoke commercial retaliation by Arab states, some of which are important importers of Brazilian meat.
And a series of scandals, including allegations of illegal financial transactions involving one of his children, have tarnished his image as "anti-corruption activist".
"He did a lot of nonsense"says Fleischer. "There are not enough advisors at his side to say," Well, it's better you do not do that. "
Even investors, who praised its rise to power because of its favorable market position and its proposals to reactivate the struggling economy, are losing confidence.
"Even a proven president in coalition building should fight to solve this problem," Jackson said.
PB
Source: AFP and EFE
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