Jair Bolsonaro: a difficult defeat to overcome

When history repeats itself, tragedy turns into a farce. This is the most appropriate phrase to describe the end of the political scenario followed by Jair Bolsonaro, who called for demonstrations on Tuesday, September 7 and called on his hosts to rebel against Justice and Parliament. This Thursday, the head of state had to apologize to the two other powers in one: “Declaration to the Nation”. It was after realizing that, if he did not proceed to the “pacification” of relations with other institutions, he was going to face impeachment as soon as possible. Under these conditions, his fate would be his replacement before the end of the mandate. Worse yet, he could no longer stand for re-election in October 2022.

When history repeats itself, tragedy turns into a farce

To deflect the political hurricane, Bolsonaro had to bury all his statements from previous weeks, when, for example, he asked his supporters: “Buy weapons. Because the armed people will never be enslaved ”. The president had to plead with the hundreds of truckers, who make up a significant part of his electoral base, to abandon the blockade of the Supreme Court building in Brasilia. And he called on many others to stop blocking access to various Brazilian capitals. With an absolutely rare plea in his life, the Head of State told the judges of the Court and the legislators of Parliament: “I never intended to assault them. The harmony between the powers does not respond to my will but to the constitutional determination that we must all respect ”.

The celebrations of Brazil’s Independence Day, September 7, still has a military parade, the presence of the president, ministers and the first lady. But last year, and this one, the pandemic forced to limit these public events. With all, Bolsonaro has managed to turn this national holiday into protests in his favor. And it’s a digital success, especially in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. In these two large cities, large columns marched with posters demanding the closure of Justice and Congress, through “military intervention”.

How and why did the Brazilian government, including the ministers of the army, have the idea of ​​promoting these marches with the slogans of “putschists”? The reasons are now obvious: the ante the decline in presidential popularity, which reached its lowest levels in August (23%), it was necessary to carry out a style of communication capable of galvanizing the Bolsonarist bases. And we can well say that they had succeeded. As Arminio Fraga, former President of the Central Bank under Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s second government, lucidly judged, “Government approval ratings are dropping and appear to be very focused on the closest group, insufficient for re-election.”. For this reason, Fraga envisioned a president whose conduct is “that of a wounded and cornered beast.” And it is very dangerous “.

The Bolsonaro’s extreme phrases in Tuesday’s two speeches consoled his supporters, but horrified Federal Supreme Court justices, MPs and Senators, the Catholic Church, center-right, center and left

The truth is that the extreme phrases uttered by Bolsonaro in Tuesday’s two speeches consoled his supporters, but they horrified the judges of the Federal Supreme Court, deputies and senators, the Catholic Church, the center-right, center and left parties. This official harangue, which the journalistic media have described without exception as “undemocraticWas the one that ended up pestering the government as a whole. More and more isolated from the political and social environment, with 61% of rejection by the population, the military ministers, like General Eduardo Ramos, understood that it was necessary to seek help to avoid a tsunami.

AND This is how it occurred to them to seek advice from former President Michel Temer, the very one who orchestrated the impeachment against former President Dilma Rousseff. This politician reappeared in Brasilia after three years of anonymity, happy as he suggested, with his new role as mediator. He drafted the letter Bolsonaro would later publish as his own and put President Jair in touch with the member of the court who touched him the most.: Alexandre de Moraes.

This Supreme Court judge has a court case against presidential children; especially against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, committed to crimes such as the dissemination of Fake News, which in Brazil are reprehensible. To him, Bolsonaro Sr. publicly called it “Canalla», In his message last Tuesday during the demonstration in São Paulo. With the help of Temer, a friend of Moraes, the magistrate went to the head of state and accepted the apology.

Those who feel betrayed now are those Bolsonarist politicians who played against this judge: “You cannot compromise with tyranny,” said the Brazilian Labor Party. The organization recalled that its leader “Roberto Jefferson pays a high price for the struggle for freedom and justice. He neither gives up nor backs down ”, as his ally Jair Messias Bolsonaro did. Another great support from the government, the editor of the site “Free Tuesday” dsaid Bolsonaro’s words asking for forgiveness were “horrible” and they constitute “an admission of his bravado”.

*Author from Brazil, 7 days. From São Paulo, Brazil.

CP