Jair Bolsonaro, intimate: what he thinks of Macri, of a military intervention in Venezuela and of its relations with the United States and Israel

(Special envoy to Brasilia) Jair Bolsonaro saves his personal relationship with Mauricio Macri, relying on the flexibility of Mercosur, will support the diplomat only by the possible detention of Juan Guaidó in Venezuela and saves his geopolitical strategy against the United States and Israel. The President of Brazil will celebrate a hundred days at Plbadto Palace and he is satisfied with his government. He knows that there are strong political insiders in his office and that his positive image has deteriorated in recent weeks. But Bolsonaro believes in God and ensures that God illuminates Brazil and its leadership as the leader of the most powerful country in the region.

Bolsonaro was a military and a national deputy. He has little experience in foreign policy and gives the initiative to his Chancellor Ernesto Araújo, career diplomat who admire Donald Trump and knows thoroughly multilateral logic of Mercosur.

Unlike all his predecessors, Bolsonaro did not begin his international program with a trip to Buenos Aires to ratify the bilateral relationship with Argentina and the continuity of Mercosur. On the contrary, he chose United States e Israeland proposed a "flexibility"of the multilateral organization that unites the economic aspirations of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.

The breakdown of this tacit protocol in a president who wants to recover the concept of Brazil as a regional empire has caused noise on the first floor of Balcarce 50. Bolsonaro knows these critical murmurs and explains in detail the reasons for his trip to Washington and Jerusalem. For the President of Brazil, Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are two powerful leaders who can help their country after an economic debacle that is based on the badumption of Dilma Rousseff And that's why, he says in the privacy of power, he's headed to North America and the Middle East.

Bolsonaro says that he had a very good meeting with Macri in Brasilia and this was recorded when the two presidents commented on their personal lives and their families together. During this meeting, Bolsonaro and Macri agreed to question the crisis in Venezuela and in the desire to aggiornar el Mercosur face a complex and very unstable global agenda.

During his tour in the United States, the Brazilian president agreed with Trump to authorize the entry into your country of 750,000 tons of wheat. Some Macri officials interpreted this political decision as a tacit flexibilization of Mercosur, because it excluded its three partners and bracketed a tariff preference protecting certain commodities in the region.

At the Plbadto, yesterday afternoon, they explained the political and multilateral sense of these controversial 750,000 tons of wheat: it is a Brazil's obligation to the World Trade Organization (WTO) that had never been fulfilled by the predecessors of Bolsonaro. It is more a sign of proximity to the White House, according to them, a tactical retreat to strengthen the Mercosur.

In this context, Brasilia supports all efforts of Macri to close a bilateral agreement between Mercosur and the European Union (EU). Bolsonaro instructed his minister of the economy, Paulo Guedes, to close a proposal with Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay – there were intrabloc differences – and he ordered him to put himself at the disposal of the Argentine President.

Plbadto expects a lot of bilateral agreement with the EU and considers that key solutions Macri's visit to Paris meet with its president Emmanuel Macron. "We are less than one kilometer," they said yesterday in the Brazilian capital, "and it depends more on Macron's will than on the influence of (Angela) Merkel."

Bolsonaro badumes that he has a topic pending during his state visit to Argentinabut still has not decided when he will meet Macri at Government House. This could happen in May or shortly before the Mercosur summit to be held in Santa Fe. The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Araújo, is currently traveling to Buenos Aires and will discuss with Foreign Minister Jorge Faurie about the date. likely a bilateral meeting between Macri and Bolsonaro. The Mercosur-EU, the Triple Frontier, drug cartels and Venezuela are the subjects that, in principle, are addressed by the two heads of state.

Trump and a military offensive in Venezuela

Bolsonaro is aligned with Trump, but his international agenda has national boundaries. Nicolás Maduro to arrest Venezuela's acting president, Juan Guaidó, Bolsonaro will only approve a diplomatic offensive in multilateral organizations (OAS and UN) and in consultative forums (Grupo Lima and Prosur). NOTor there is a political space in Brazil to support a military invasion financed and led by the Pentagon.

However, the Brazilian president believes that Maduro will not make the mistake of capturing Guaidó. Assesses that Cuban advisers reject this hypothesis and that only will play to Guaidó's wear and his offensive to start a democratic transition in Venezuela.

Bolsonaro badumes that possible take of Guaidó will be read at the White House as a provocation and affirms that the status quo in Venezuela complicates the possibilities of the opposition and favors the populist regime, despite power cuts, hunger in the streets and international pressure. For the Plbadto, Maduro survives by the decision of Russia, China and Cubaand this support is difficult to reverse because Guaidó has not yet managed to convince the military elite to desert the Bolivarian army and head for the Miraflores Palace.

In this scenario, Bolsonaro badyzes that the diplomatic path will be prosperous if Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and Trump are personally involved. The Brazilian president is committed to the creation of a negotiating table with China, the United States and Russia, as well as some representatives of the Lima Group – Argentina, Brazil and Colombia– Design a transition program that protects the interests of the three powers and ensures a democratic transition as traumatic as possible.

Bolsonaro will celebrate his 100 days at Plbadto Palace. He is pleased with his management, although opinion polls show his fall in the public image: bad or bad (31.2%), fair (32.4%) and good or excellent (30.5%), according to a poll Poll Atlas that was commented yesterday around the Brazilian president.

Bolsonaro, as you know, believes more in God than in polls.