Jair Bolsonaro pushes democracy to its limits in Brazil

In the past month, Jair Bolsonaro intensified its threats against the institutions of Brazil to the point that even those who elected the former army captain to the presidency in 2018 now fear for the future of the young democracy.

The last crisis started when Bolsonaro, faced with the drop in its approval ratings, said that “there will be no elections” next year and Brazil has not changed its system of electronic voting include ballots, which he believes are necessary to avoid fraud.

When the highest courts in the country opened investigations into the unfounded allegations, got angry with several of the judges and threatened to act outside the “four lines”, or limits, of the Constitution. Here is his threat: “I play in the four lines of the Constitution, and I play, if necessary, with weapons on the other side“.

The question that Brazilians are now struggling to answer is: what does the president count?

Despite some grassroots support, it is far from clear that the Armed forces will approve any type of military adventure. Meanwhile, their attacks on democracy They only deepen his estrangement from the main voters who voted for him three years ago, but have since disappointed with his style of government and, in particular, with its chaotic management of Covid-19 pandemic.

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Analysts say Bolsonaro is aware of rapid deterioration of their number in surveys: Study published last week suggests that if elections were held now, the president would lose to his political nemesis, the former left-wing leader Luiz Incio ‘Lula’ da Silva, by nearly 20 percentage points.

With this in mind, you develop a strategy that is reminiscent of that of Donald trump to United States, who has continually questioned the integrity of the electoral system and then challenged the results of the November ballot of last year.

“Bolsonaro follows the steps of Donald trump while being careful not to follow the fate of Asset», Declared Thomaz Favaro, director of Brazil through risk control. “While some of the critics of Bolsonaro towards the electoral system precedes the electoral defeat of Asset in 2020 it is clear that the Brazilian president feels empowered by what happened in the United States. and hopes that a sustained offensive will allow him to retain power even in the event of electoral defeat“.

The weakness of Brazilian institutions can make you more successful than your American mentor. Meanwhile, he Judicial power tried with limited success to slow down the Bolsonaro’s excesses, the Congress He showed himself ready to bow to the will of the ex-ratrooper.

The motion of introduction printed ballots You fail only because you have to cross a three-fifths threshold: a majority of lawmakers (229) voted in favor of the president’s request, while 218 voted against. The president of the Lower chamber is one of the allies of Bolsonaro, while the holder of the Senate maintains an ambiguous position.

“Bolsonaro defended the right of people to demonstrate freely and that we have elections with the possibility of an audit, ”said Carla Zambelli, lawmaker of the right-wing Social-Liberal Party and ally of Bolsonaro.

Bolsonaro: “I play within the four lines of the Constitution, and I play, if necessary, with weapons on the other side.”

From this perspective, The president made the decision to focus on his bitterest base in the hopes that this 20% group of voters will push him to the second round of elections. Once in the final phase, you will be able to scream if the result fades.

This game plan baffled observers of Brasilia. Many think he will more chances in the elections if he was silent and strove to reap the fruits of a saving gradually improving.

Instead, his rhetoric sparked a series of judicial inquiries, this could end their disqualification at the polls, and have contributed to the decline of its popularity figures.

Your allies in the Congress have so far avoided several impeachment requests, but like the pandemic give in and the demonstrators take to the streets again, it is likely that their courage will soon be tested by the relentless strength of Brazilian public opinion.