Jair Bolsonaro’s image crumbles and Lula asserts himself as the favorite in the 2022 presidential elections

In Brazil, support and voting intentions for former President Lula da Silva are growing rapidly. At the same time as the rejection of President Jair Bolsonaro sets a record. Two opinion polls published this Thursday point the wrong time for the image of the Brazilian president. In addition to indicating that Lula would be elected president of Brazil, in the second round, if the presidential election of 2022 takes place now.

Surveys XP Ipespe Yes DataFolha showed that the negative assessment of the management of Jair Bolsonaro maintains an upward trend. According to XP Ipespe, the rise started eleven months ago, when those who said the government is “bad or very bad” were 31%. Now in the new survey this rate is 52% – “the biggest since the beginning of the government”, underlines the pollster. The opinion company also reported that those who rate the government as “good or very good” fell from 39% to 25%.

In the DataFolha uprising, the president’s disapproval also recorded its worst moment since Bolsonaro arrived at the Planalto Palace in 2019: 51 percent. Both surveys were carried out in the first days of this July and have a national scope.

The DataFolha report states that most Brazilians consider Bolsonaro to be “Not honest, incompetent, false, unprepared, indecisive and bossy.” A year ago, in June 2020, 48% thought Bolsonaro was honest and 38% of Brazilians said the opposite about him. Now it’s the other way around. While 52% see him as not honest, 40% see him as honest.

The XP Ipespe survey, to which Bugle viewed firsthand, shows that the government’s image is blurry despite the improvement in the perception of the economy.

Lula, favorite

We have the impression that the economy is on the right track, while fear of the coronavirus pandemic increased from 45% to 38% – This Thursday, Brazil recorded a downward trend in cases and deaths for the first time in a year.

But, there is a political context that can explain the degradation of the image of Bolsonaro and his government. The government is questioned in the Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry (‘ICC’) about negotiations in which there would be iRegularities for the purchase of vaccines against Covid-19.

In this chapter, 81% of Brazilians say they are aware of “suspicion of irregularities”. And 63% say they are “probably true”. For 41% of Brazilians, members of the government are involved and 15% say Bolsonaro is too.

Added to this is the fact that for three consecutive weekends, the Brazilians, critics of the president, they take to the streets to protest and ask for his departure. The president, for his part, gathered his motorcycle supporters, in Rio de Janeiro for example. When they ask the Brazilians if Bolsonaro should be impeached, there is almost a tie in the answers: 49% say they are for and 45% against.

It is in this scenario of dissatisfaction with the figure and the government of Bolsonaro, in addition to the ICC which dominates the Brazilian television news, that Lula continues to emerge as the main political rival of the current president in the presidential election of October 2022.

According to the XP Ipespe survey, fifteen months after the first round, the former president is maintaining his growth among Brazilians. He has now, in July, 38% of voting intentions and Bolsonaro 26%. The other possible candidates are far behind in this race. Former Ceará governor Ciro Gomes records 10% and former minister Sergio Moro 9%. And the governor of São Paulo, João Doria, barely 2%. In the case of the second round, Lula would have 49% of the vote and Bolsonaro 35%.

PB