Jesús Rodríguez: “Argentina is the country that has generated the most poverty and the one that will take the longest to recover from the pandemic”

The nation’s auditor general, Jesús Rodríguez, has expressed concern that Argentina will take longer than most OECD countries and many of its International Monetary Fund (IMF) counterparts to recover from the pandemic. In addition, he stressed that, as indicated by ECLAC, it is the country in the region that has generated the most poverty in relative terms.

The former Minister of the Economy, former national deputy and current vice-president of the Alem Foundation said in an interview with Infobae that this delay is not due exclusively to the lack of economic tools, but to the absence of political rules that consolidate democracy and institutional predictability. These are the problems that are delaying the recovery, largely due to the populist and aimless nature of Alberto Fernández’s government, he warned.

-Why do you claim that Argentina will take longer than other countries to recover from the pandemic based on OECD and IMF data, and, moreover, that it is the one that generated the most poverty in 2020?

-For two reasons: because the conditions to overcome the consequences of the pandemic have two key variables: the international context and the national political system. Regarding the first point, there are positive aspects for international prices and the interest rate, but there are complexities in terms of global governance. Concerning the domestic, there is no sustainable approach to recovery if there is no political system capable of helping to generate certainty; For these reasons, it is expected that there will be less capacity to meet increasing social demands.

There is no sustainable approach to recovery if there is no political system capable of helping to generate certainty

-What problems are there in global governance?

-Among others, the World Trade Organization has not resolved the controversy system, and there is a strategic impetus between China and the United States.

– Did the international financial institutions function well?

-Yes; They were doing well and the capitalization of the IMF is an example in this regard. The Covax fund also, where the United States and Europe have invested more than China and Russia.

-Why then in Argentina is there a more favorable view of Russia and China than of the United States?

-There is a widespread prejudice by which they said that a small bug would upset capitalism and an official who is no longer there said that this pandemic was a reflection of neoliberalism; it is more a problem of prejudice than of ideology.

-And why did the independent V-Dem institute place Argentina among the worst marks in terms of democratic solidity?

-Argentina went into decline because the populist mode of government – which has nothing to do with economic policies – which has a common thread among Menem, Duhalde, Néstor, Cristina and Alberto, who have always governed with urgency economic; And this is not linked to the fact that you are a promercado or the other way around, but to respect for the balance of powers and institutional quality, In 18 months, this government has signed more decrees than Cristina and more DNUs than Macri. There were more DNUs than laws.

-The ruling party could say this is due to the pandemic …

-The 10 emergencies dictated by Congress predate the pandemic, so this is no excuse; and we must add the absences of the chief of staff in Congress, not appointing the head of access to information and colonization of regulatory entities, among other facts.

-The problems did not also come from the management of Macri?

-Yes, but he suffered 14 tons of stones in Congress when he tried to pass a law; Beyond that, there have been political miscalculations on President Macri’s part with the naive belief that the change of administration could change the situation in itself.

-President Fernández generally appeals to Alfonsín’s rhetoric and emphasizes it. Do you see them similar?

-Just because of the mustache.

-Why is there a lack of predictability in Argentina?

-Capitalism hates uncertainty. In China, certainty is given by the one-party regime and the Chilean miracle gave birth to the dictatorship; corn in a democracy, predictability is ensured by the rules of the game so that the actors can act effectively.

-There are countries that are more unstable in institutional terms in the region, such as Peru …

-There is instability, but clear rules.

-Does this mean that an autonomous central bank is necessary, as many economists point out?

-No, that means that the actors know that the rules will not be changed 180 degrees from one day to the next.

Predictability means players know the rules won’t change 180 degrees overnight.

-Given the government’s need to come to an agreement with the IMF, don’t you think that there will be more room to reach these consensuses after the November elections?

– I hope that there is a political maturity of political actors to establish substantial agreements and not declarative, or figurative.

– What should these agreements be based on?

-Institutional quality, integration into the world (with regard to human rights and an agreement between Mercosur and the European Union), economic competitiveness and social cohesion; Regarding competitiveness, the gas law for cold areas is unjustifiable because a property on the Nahuel Huapi will be subsidized. AND social cohesion means that there can be no management of plans by people; they must be universalized sectorally, and not with a criterion of subordination to particular interests.

-You said a few days ago that it was necessary “to distance oneself from the manual of procedures of governments of populist roots of all ideological latitudes and all continents”. What does mean?

-Bolsonaro spoke about the flu and Trump and Erdogan said covid was not an issue. As the political scientist said Daniel Innerarity populist fashions do not believe in external knowledge, as here when neoliberalism is blamed for the pandemic; they are not inclined to learn from international experience when we claim that we are better than the Swedes; and the modes of consensus are suspicious: “they learn it by blows or blows” they warn.

– Wasn’t populism the answer to the limits that liberal democracy showed after the 90s?

–There is a state of unease in democracy, that we must avoid becoming a state of unease with democracy; This is why the Olivos photos affair is so damaging, which is an episode that reveals the double bar and the sham in government action.

– These types of episodes are not repeated for lack of institutional sanction?

-There is a section of society that is indulgent and willing with this type of social behavior; it is social anomie. President Sebastián Piñera had to apologize to Chile for not wearing a chin strap on a beach and in Uruguay no one thinks that could happen.

– Isn’t part of the opposition responsible for this indulgence?

-The opposition must improve every day its capacity to propose alternatives.

-Sometimes it seems very testimonial …

-This is a popular verdict, but it doesn’t mean you should shut up or make yourself invisible.

-To what extent does the current power pattern in government with a vice-president who has more political power than the president detract from the institutional quality?

-This is a very clear institutional anomaly, which is the result of Cristina’s weak leadership, as she cannot exercise it in first person, which has repercussions on a weak president and results in an administration that has countless actors with veto power; This results in a government without initiatives, with a series of laws that were not official initiatives, and government initiatives that were not debated in Congress. This is part of the links that the official scheme has self-imposed: Peronism from 1983 on has offered us two types of leadership: one typical of the Peronist leadership structure like Duhalde and Kirchner, and another which has transcended party boundaries, Menem and Cristina. But Alberto doesn’t meet any of those categories and that’s why everything is blocked and the time horizon is the next 24 hours.

– Were the IFE and ATP programs implemented with transparency and fairness, or did they contribute to this opacity you are talking about?

-There is an obvious lack of transparency in the administration. Citizen Power has a purchasing observatory, with nearly 100 organizations, and it is revealed that a good part of public purchases are made outside the Buy portal, with three ad hoc references sought; This opens the door to the discretion that can be seen in these programs and other government initiatives.

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