Joe Biden and the eyes of Vladimir Putin

Joe Biden, US vice president in 2011, was visiting Moscow. The White House’s relations under Barack Obama with the Kremlin were not good at the time and, rather, very fluid. This scenario only improved with Donald Trump and for reasons many of which are murky. Biden has been outspoken in reflecting on these tensions. Barely greeted, he told Putin: “Mr Prime Minister, I look you in the eye and I don’t think you have a soul.”

The anecdote was told by the current president long later. And there were witnesses. But its importance is rather historical to get an idea of ​​where the link is currently being established between Russia, already with Putin as president, and the new American president.

The arrest of dissident Alexei Navalni after overcoming proven poisoning during five months of hospital therapy in Germany, is how the Russian leader welcomes Biden. The arrest of the politician who fights hardest against the Kremlin autocracy, it took place on the Sunday before the Democrat took office as president of the United States.

This measure was justified by a bureaucratic court ruling that required Navalni to appear from time to time. Officials did not take into account the seriousness of the health situation of the politician for the poisoning of which Moscow has always denied any responsibility and even that the incident existed.

New North American Government’s demands for Navalny’s release answered the violent repression of the marches of his supporters this Saturday throughout Russia. They slam doors and warnings. But also a dubious strategy bordering on internal risk. Never seen a wave of protests across the country like the ones today, reflecting both acute questioning against the Russian leadership and citizen exhaustion at the democratization of the plan.

Putin reacts in this visceral way not only because of the loss of Trump’s partner who was always ready to protect the Russian government. The translation of these provocative actions is to ensure a place of power and tension to limit the offensive it expects from Washington before it becomes obvious. Henry Kissinger once described the Russian leader as “a serious strategist, but an understanding of American psychology and values ​​is not his strong suit.” Just as “the understanding of Russian psychology and history for American politicians was not either,” he explained. .

There are reasons which have multiplied Russian mistrust. Biden appointed William Burns as head of the US intelligence station, a former ambassador to Moscow who played an important role in limiting the Kremlin’s influence in the Middle East and North Africa during the expansion of the Arab Spring ten years ago. Newly appointed senior political officer at the Foreign Office, newly appointed Victoria Nuland was a very tough diplomat who collaborated politically and financially in the popular uprising that upset Viktor Yanukovych’s corrupt pro-Russian government in Ukraine in 2014.

The loss of control of this country, crucial for Russian geopolitical interests, then forced Moscow to seize the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine where, in Sevastopol, its navy is installed and from where it projects its power towards the Mediterranean. Biden differentiated Russia as a threat to his country’s national security from China, which he characterized as a competitor.

The Navalny thing has a duller echo in our region. In Venezuela, now practically a Russian satellite, the threats multiplied by the regime to stop the entire opposition leadership, with Juan Guaidó at the helm, It has a matrix similar to the one we see with the Moscow unrest. And maybe his influence. There is also a way to warn Biden that things will not be easy, although it is difficult for the Democrat to have naively taken on that.