Joe Biden in Power: Now What Do We Do with Latin America?

Latin America has reacted as always, between extremes, to the novelty of the coming to power of Joe Biden. From the celebration nourished by an exaggerated belief that it will be the beginning of a powerful turn of attention with this space as evidenced by the Argentinian or Venezuelan enthusiasm, to the disgust and disdain in Mexico, Brazil, Honduras or El Salvador . It is clear to everyone, or it should be, that the region will not be high on the priorities of the new White House, stuck with the internal crisis and the restoration Biden will attempt to restore the damaged American image. Conversely, for Latin America, the change of power in the United States is a first order fact which will modify its geopolitics and will have enormous repercussions. However, the arrival of the Democrat in the White House perhaps It will be less festive than many leaders in the region assume or imagine.

Donald Trump lacked a real policy towards this space. The one that took place was to let Latinos vote communities in Florida, among other states, do or play in an exclusive fashion, which the outgoing president followed even in the strategic failure to demolish the thaw with Cuba that the government of Barack Obama. Juan González, a Colombian from the United States, a former official in this administration and who advises the new president on the region, explains this behavior in harsher terms. The Republican effectively had “only one electoral strategy in South Florida, but his legacy was deportation and turn a blind eye to rampant corruption “ in all this space.

Biden, unlike his predecessor, is a founding president and for his new national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, also a longtime direct adviser on international politics, the new head of state “considers it essential that United States operates in an environment of mutual respect and shared responsibility “towards Latin America. This last point is central because involves necessary agreements and coincidences. In reality, Biden will overreact as he needs to regain his country’s prestige. Former Mexican Foreign Minister Jorge Castañeda expands on the concept, saying that “the region needs inspiration and foreign policy from Washington, not clunky slogans or slogans. Trump appeased presidents such as Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil, Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico and Nayib Bukele of El Salvador, who saw him as an ally. Biden must significantly change US foreign policy towards the region, despite a possible Republican majority in the Senate, “he wrote in The New York Times.

The axes of this change will be neither free nor unilateral. Nor is it a strict continuation of Obama’s policy. It is in this sense that for many regional leaders, the arrival of the Democrat can be rather a rude awakening. In this context, promote democracy and fight corruption, as well as human rights, judicial independence, press freedom and the defense of the environment, which with Trump have deteriorated, they will have new energy. It is a two-way street. “Biden’s insistence on resuming anti-corruption efforts … will become a concern for any corrupt political elite in the region,” he summed up. Los Angeles Times, Tiziano Breda, an analyst based in Guatemala with the International Crisis Group, a watchdog on such detours.

It is not just about corruption, but more fundamentally about the freedom of justice to independently punish these crimes. In this universe, there are not a few countries that have become imbalanced and which, at the same time, have the urgent need for economic support from the United States because of the crisis they are going through. “Mutual responsibility”, he says in these terms.. In any case, make the challenge they represent visible in a large part of the area imperfect democracies, as defined by the specialized index of The Economist. The meaning of this concept is understood by contrasting it with that of full democracies, which respect civil liberties and there is a political culture which leads to the flourishing of democracy. In imperfect countries, there are free elections, freedoms are respected, but there are weaknesses in governance and in the balance of power.

A very general look at the region reveals that democratic stability and respect for the path to justice are central chapters of the crisis of maturation that the continent exposes. In particular the first element, tainted with alibis like the lawfare device to politicize justice and, at the same time, a pretext to subdue and colonize this power.

The depth of these degradations is significant. The lack of independence of the judiciary is identified by 58% of the citizens of the region as the main problem of justice, according to the Latin American Strategic Center for Geopolitics. The results of the latest survey of the “Barometer of the Americas,” which surveys some 30 countries, revealed a decline in support for democracy as a system of government in Latin America. Among the factors that contribute to the lack of support for democracy are corruption, insecurity and economic vulnerability. Only four in ten citizens of the region are satisfied with how democracy works in their country, the report says.

Beyond the zenithal importance that this question will have, as this column has already underlined, Biden will also make a strong axis on climate change where the region has a central chapter in the global question of the fate of the Amazon. . The president-elect proposes the creation of an international fund of 20 billion dollars to preserve this space and warns Brazil that there will be “economic consequences” if they don’t stop deforestation. This initiative will be undertaken beyond resistance from the Bolsonaro government, which will surely be short-lived. Sullivan has no doubts that while Washington will seek to be collaborative “The relationship can be strained” with Brasilia. The truth is that in the end, the two governments will not jeopardize the historic link between the two largest economies in the hemisphere.

With Mexico, we can not expect any significant change in the agreements reached by the two countries in recent years. Biden cannot convey a sense of openness that generates an expansive new round of immigration, so that the most important country on its southern border will continue to hold back migrants trying to reach the United States, but there is will have significant funding of $ 4 billion in the so-called Central American Triangle, in El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, the main sources of refugees, to try to contain this problem at the origin, by changing the rules and alleviating the misery.

On Cuba, analysts strongly agree that Biden will not recover from the total thaw Obama carried out. What will be noticed and in no time it’s a relief from the restrictions for travel, remittances and commerce with Havana. In this sense, special importance will be given to the island’s link with Venezuela. “We will see some harshness and firmness in the approach, but it will not be threatening, nor will it suggest military intervention,” Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue said of the Nicolás Maduro regime. “There will be a more sophisticated diplomatic process than the one we saw with Trump,” he added. It is recognized that the sanctions and criteria of the outgoing government to consolidate Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua into a single tyrannical enemy it was not a smart strategy.

Castañeda notes that Venezuela “This is the most sensitive issue for Biden in Latin America.” On the one hand, he says, any attempt to end Maduro’s dictatorship failed. On the other hand, the economic, social, political and humanitarian situation in Venezuela is deteriorating day by day. “Obviously, the only way out is free, fair and internationally supervised presidential elections, without Maduro and with guarantees for Chavism and the former Cuban benefactors of Venezuelan oil generosity. All attempts to put this result on the negotiating table have failed. Biden could possibly make it work. “To do this, it would involve China, the main creditor of the Bolivarian regime, as well as Cuba, hence the re-establishment of the link. He will insist that “Raúl Castro cooperate with Washington and the rest of Latin America, in particular Colombia”., to find a way out of the tragic Venezuelan situation. But Biden would also seek “Recruit Mexican and Argentinian support for a definitive solution” to this crisis.

The appointment of Janet Yellen as Secretary of the Treasury at the US Department of the Economy may be good news for the region. The official will continue with low rate policies to stimulate the economy and ease the unemployment crisis. What he has already done notoriously since the presidency of the FED. This process, coinciding with that led by the European Union, will free up cheap flows of funds which will seek investment spaces. The process is also part of a new tailwind, not as intense as that of the last decade, but important that China is stimulating due to its surge in purchases of grains and energy raw materials, which will worsen next year. and which partly explains the persistent rise in the price of soybeans.

This is an opportunity that can only be exploited if this notion of “shared responsibility” transcends the changes that are removing the business environment and institutional obstacles in this southern part of the world.
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