Juan Guaidó and Nicolás Maduro play political chess on the border separating Venezuela from Colombia

From Bogota. On February 23, Juan Guaidó will try to distribute the impressive humanitarian aid that the United States and other countries have taken to Colombia to appease the social and economic crisis affecting millions of Venezuelans. But Guaidó's intentions can provoke a national tragedy: Nicolás Maduro has already stated that boxes containing food and medicines will not cross the border. and announced a "special deployment plan" designed to address their threats.

Maduro believes that Donald Trump is planning an invasion of Venezuela and argues that the the distribution of American boxes hides the principle of a coup d'etat designed by the CIA and the Pentagon. For the time being, Guaidó is preparing his peaceful march to collect the humanitarian aid that is currently in Cucuta, Colombia, while Maduro continues to be supported by a handful of generals who manage the weapons, the police and the police. economy and the darker businesses of Venezuela.

The power of foreign actors

The democratic exit of the Venezuelan crisis depends on certain geopolitical movements conceived outside of Caracas. Trump wants to end Maduro and his alternatives range from a coalition government to the downfall of the populist leader. China and Russia support Maduro and consider Venezuela as a territorial proxy allowing him to play himself in an area of ​​influence belonging to history in Washington. And in the midst of this global tension, the Lima group, the European Union and the Vatican are using their relative power to prevent the Venezuelan crisis from ending like Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq or Vietnam.

For his strategy in Venezuela, Trump organized a working group that could call "Falcons of the White House": Mauricio Claver, Eliott Abrams and John Bolton, three Republican leaders who have realpolitk as a daily credo. These hawks may justify the Venezuelan invasion or the international support granted to Guaidó as interim president, depending on the political circumstances of the moment. Everything is related to the correlation of forces in the international system.

For that, February 23 could mark a turning point in the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela. And this turning point will depend on the pressure exerted by the United States and the balance of power exerted by the European Union, the Lima group and the Vatican. For the Falcons of the White House, if Maduro banned humanitarian aid, it would have generated a great excuse to ship the Marines to Venezuela. On the other hand, if Guaidó stays at an equal distance and shows that Maduro's strategy deepens the suffering of Venezuelan society, she will have added a new quota of political volume without bloodshed.

Trump has already stripped his strategy of putting pressure on the generals for them to betray Maduro, and the feeling in Caracas and Bogota is that his inflammatory speech at the University of Florida has only served To abolish the military leadership that still holds the populist leader. The generals will not let go if there are no agreed conditions for consummating their betrayal, and these negotiations – secret and delicate – have not yet been completed.

While Maduro and Guaidó decide to move on February 23, At the borders of Venezuela and Colombia is a media battle that confronts the populist government to the interim presidency that calls for a democratic transition without delay. Political auctions occur in the media, in the entertainment world and in social networks. Everything serves to resolve a conflict that faces two different ways of managing a state and applying the basic concepts of democracy.

Guaidó and Maduro will organize open recitals. Both will lead marches to deliver humanitarian aid. And both will take care of their political capital so as not to lose initiative in a key moment of the stand-off.. Guaidó enjoys international media coverage, while Maduro manages the armed forces, civil groups and intelligence services. Next Saturday, on the border between Venezuela and Colombia, will develop a huge arm that has a beginning format and an end between the signs of the issue.

To international diplomacy that supports his agenda, Guaidó announced that he would lead a march to the Colombian border to force the delivery of humanitarian aid under the control of the government of Ivan Duque. Maduro, in turn, reiterated that he would not accept humanitarian aid and that this international proposal conceals the intention of invading Venezuela. These are two irreducible positions, which can cause a historical tragedy.