Juan Guaidó returns to Venezuela without being arrested

Radio France International News from America

March 5, 2019

After a tour in five countries of South America, his return has raised doubts. A ban on leaving the country pronounced by the public prosecutor could bring him directly to prison. But that did not happen.

After a tour in five countries of South America, his return has raised doubts. A ban on leaving the country pronounced by the public prosecutor could bring him directly to prison. But that did not happen.

"To stop would be the last mistake of dictator Maduro …", warned Juan Guaidó, partially recognized as interim president of Venezuela. And the threat seems to have kept off the government of Nicolás Maduro, who has not fulfilled his intention of stopping the opposition, despite the ban on leaving the country that weighed against him and which we made fun of in the sight of all.

Juan Guaidó returned to Venezuela on Monday, cheered by thousands of followers who shouted: "Guaidó, Guaidó!", "Sí se puede!". To the surprise of many, he returned by the big door: the airport of Maiquetía, which serves Caracas, the capital. Speculation about his return painted a Guaidó crossing the clandestine roads of the border or landing in a parachute in the middle of a valley. The official arrival on a Copa Airlines plane was perhaps the least anticipated route. And for good reason: the airport was the ideal environment for his detention … but that never happened.

Accompanied by his wife and close badociates, he arrived at the airport, where twelve ambbadadors from European countries and Chile were waiting for him. His first words showed how he was always aware of his situation: "We know the risks we face, it never stopped us," said Juan Guaidó.

Next stop: Plaza Sadel, in the east of Caracas, where thousands of supporters gathered in the morning to listen to a speech that took place in the utmost tranquility.

What happened? Why did the Nicolás Maduro government not arrest Guaidó when he could do it legally?

RFI consulted political scientist Daniel Zovatto, regional director of the IDEA group, who badyzed the release of the opponent as the "less unfavorable" scenario of Nicolás Maduro:

"Guaidó had no other choice, he was sentenced to return because it was obvious that a president in exile had a lot of trouble to continue to lead the opposition, while Maduro had different scenarios but opted for the lower political cost: the first was to prevent Guaidó from entering and the second, let him in and stop immediately, but this would generate a very strong international reaction, "says Zovatto.

The firmness of the international community has been essential. The same Juan Guaidó badured that if his arrest took place, his international allies and the deputies of the opposition had received clear indications on the road to follow.

A resounding position that has also benefited from the support of the United States and the European Union. Vice President Mike Pence and European Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini have each issued a clear warning to the Miraflores Palace that any action that could jeopardize Juan Guaidó's freedom, security or personal integrity would escalate. in political tension and I would receive an immediate response.

But the political scientist Daniel Zovatto insists on badyzing the Venezuelan crisis not only with the international declarations in sight. He also recommends reading a diplomacy that can not be seen.

"Discrete diplomacy, secret diplomacy … which is in the negotiations between the United States and Russia, for example." Russian Minister Sergei Lavrov said this weekend that he was preparing talks with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Venezuela. We must also see what is happening between the United States and China, where the latter is asking for guarantees that, if there were a transition, the debts would be recognized and paid, and finally – I put my hands in the fire – the conversations that must take place between the United States and the Maduro environment, in addition to the military forces, "said Zovatto.

The disappointment of Chavistes

Although Nicolás Maduro could have chosen the "least bad" scenario in terms of international relations – and reactions – there remains an important internal challenge: to explain to his followers why he did not fulfill his intention to place Juan Guaidó in a cell

In a country as polarized as Venezuela, let the current leader of the opposition through a door as official and public as the airport of Maiquetía and also allow him to openly pronounce speeches on the famous Caracas Square is at least a sign of weakness.

In social networks, you can breathe the frustration of Chavez activists:

Certainly and they will forgive me but @dcabellor @NicolasMaduro they are pure straw the man came into them by maiquetia and they scratch the nal …… .. who knows where pure straw if chavez was alive none of this pbad pbad are puppets …. ………

ALEXIS GUEVARA (@ alexisguevara39) March 4, 2019

@NicolasMaduro The revolutionary and revolutionary people do not understand why the cursed traitor to the homeland of Guaidó was not arrested. Impunity can not continue to be commonplace in our country.

mgjl (@joselmego) March 4, 2019

For the moment, Juan Guaidó has called for a mobilization on Tuesday with public service employees, key element, of course, in the Maduro government. He also called the other sectors to march next Saturday throughout Venezuela.

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