Keys to understanding the political earthquake in Chile after the election of constituents, mayors and governors

A 3.3% devaluation of the peso and a drop of nearly 10 points on the stock market. This is how the Chilean market reacted to the unforeseen results on Sunday, when the trans-Andean country chose its founding convention and traditional coalitions have suffered a resounding defeat. The nearly 17,000 candidates for different posts opened up a range of unthinkable options to the public and the result was a convention full of independents, identified with the left, who do not respond to traditional political hierarchies.

Only 51 of 155 voters (138 of whom were elected by universal vote and 17 by Chileans identified with indigenous peoples) are party members. Most of the rest were elected from lists registered outside the traditional coalitions, with some of them supposed to run in various constituencies across the country.

The most emblematic case is that of “La Lista del Pueblo”, an organization that started in front of the massive demonstrations in Plaza Italia. who defines himself as anti-party and left. Chilean analysts place him on the left of the broad front and of the Communist Party. They have 25 voters. The “Independents for a New Constitution”, heirs to the DNA of Social Democracy, won 11 seats. A total of 48 independents from outside the parties will constitute the new body.

Even traditional coalitions, such as the old Concertación (now the Constituent Unit) or Chile Vamos (the ruling party) have given quotas in their lists to independents. And among them, many were elected, a reflection of the disaffection of citizens by traditional politicians or historical activism. A total of 39 were elected under these conditions, in addition to the 48 others and the 17 constituents of indigenous peoples total 104.63% of the Convention.

Piñera’s legacy

If there is a legacy of Sebastián Piñera, it will be that during his two governments the right suffered some of the most painful defeats in its history. Already in 2012, in its first government, the ruling coalition made water in the mid-term municipal elections. But nothing like what happened on Sunday.

The pro-government electorate in Chile simply participated or punished the government and, therefore, its coalition less. Without going any further, the list “Chile Vamos” obtained a little over a million votes, almost 500,000 less of those who obtained the “Reject” option during the plebiscite, considered an option for very conservative voters.

The figures are more dramatic if the bar is measured against the presidential election: in the second round, Piñera obtained around 3,400,000 votes, almost 2,400,000 votes more than his coalition obtained yesterday. In the opinion of analysts, the emerging middle class which gave him an overwhelming triumph in 2017, he lost his affection and attachment to the coalition after the social epidemic and economic aid in the face of the Covid crisis.

Communist Santiago

Despite the unfavorable scenario, the right hoped to obtain a solid result at the Municipal. And although it has retained two electoral strongholds such as Puente Alto and La Florida, considered two of the three most populous municipalities in the country, suffered a painful defeats in the municipality of Santiago, Ñuñoa, Maipú and Viña del Mar.

In the case of the head of the country, the mayor Felipe Alessandri (of the Piñera party, Renovación Nacional) saw his vote affected by the decrease in the mobilization of voters in his sector and the decline in citizen participation. He was beaten by two percentage points by Communist councilor Iraci Hassler, now elected mayor.

La Concertación, this coalition that has brought 30 years of institutional stability to the trans-Andean country, and among its figures the former presidents Ricardo Lagos and Michelle Bachelet, became the third political force from the country. It won only 25 seats, while the coalition formed by the Broad Front and the Communist Party won 28.

Chilean social democracy is going through a deep crisis. They came to yesterday’s election with four potential presidential candidates for November, but none scored more than four points in the polls. Christian Democracy, the emblematic party of the Chilean transition, obtained only two conventional voters.

Chile disrupted its constitutive process, guaranteeing two principles: the participation of indigenous peoples and parity not only for the same number of candidates for women and men, but also the initial parity to correct the result and remain equal.

However, although the idea was thought to favor women, it was the men who ultimately benefited from the correction. Without her, there would be 83 elected women. Today, there are only 78. A symbol of the new times that the Chilean voter expressed at the polls.

PB