Knowing how to lose: one of the keys of the presidency after STEP

The OSP elections of today are the third in the history of Argentina to elect presidential candidates since the entry into force of the reform. and this time, there is no internal competition. In other words, presidential candidates compete only to obtain the minimum of 1.5% of the votes required by law to participate in general elections.

From the background, it is badumed that the elections will be a "first round" in reality, where a trend or base can be established that will rethink the vote for October. Nobody wins, but rhetorical competition is important. Moreover, what is the difference between one and the other (in an alleged polarized election). And in a multi-jurisdictional election, it's important not only to try to win, but also to "know how to lose." To understand it, we must review the recent history of the presidents; especially Nestor Kirchner and Mauricio Macri.

In previous presidential stages, situations were diverse.

The 2011 primaries had a spectacular result in favor of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who was accompanied by Amado Boudou. The elections were held on August 14 and the Victory Front won over 10 million votes, followed by the UDESO alliance, which lost nearly 8 million votes. It was a "formal" election that already marked the way, as Cristina would win in the second round with more than 54% of the vote.

The second presidential PASS experiment was much more nuanced. In 2015, the electoral scene was divided into three: Daniel Scioli, "heir" of Kirchnerism and no internal competitor; the Front Let's change that there was internal competition (with disproportionate forces) between Mauricio Macri and Ernesto Sanz and Segio Mbada, involved in the conflict.

The election had a favorable outcome for the Front of Victory. But the scene did not seem closed. Scioli was the most voted candidate, Macri was elected in Cambiemos and Mbada in third place. At the general level, no candidate had the required number of votes to win (45% of the vote or 40% and a difference of 10 points) and there was one vote. Macri had lost in October, but became president in the second round.

Argentina has changed its electoral system since the reform of the National Constitution in 1994. The direct elections, the single constituency and, above all, the polls laid the foundation for the new system, which took a long time to become operational. because of the political dynamics of Argentina. Most elections were resolved by "an overwhelming majority". He arrived at Menem during his reelection. Also in De La Rúa in 1999. Both won the first round.

In 2003, after the institutional chaos and the explosion of parties, the conditions were met for the vote. Menem had won the first round and Nestor Kirchner was second (with Duhalde's votes). But the former president had a bad image and everything indicated that the second round would be radical. La Rioja left, there was no second round and Kirchner became the president who took the smallest number of votes in history and who went second.

Cristina Fernández, with Julio Cobos as teammate, also won the first round in 2007, the same in 2011, and with PASO as a candidate selection system.

The second round of 2015 marked a turning point and the one that capitalized it was Mauricio Macri, a regular in this system. Has he already had the electoral formation of the city of Buenos Aires, where the second round is almost a constant (to win, it takes half plus one of the votes and not the most lax requirements of the Nation).

This expertise is one of the benefits of Macri: losing an election and rebuilding strategies.