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As Leader of the Opposition, it is up to Jeremy Corbyn to file a no-confidence motion against Johnson, who could win with the support of the seats – including several Conservatives – opposed to saying goodbye to Europe on October 31 without an agreement with Brussels The main objective of Corbyn is to force the convocation of early parliamentary elections to overthrow the Tory. The latest polls, however, are not favorable to the Labor Party, whose voters in big cities are wary of the ambiguity with regard to the leader's Europe, a leftist very critical of l & # 39; EU.
It is then that the Scottish independence party SNP enters the scene, radically contrary to a Brexit for the brave, but who uses this threat to justify a new referendum (there had already been one in 2014) on the subject. independence of the autonomous territory. For the first time, the Labor Party says it is ready to "not block" the call for a new plebiscite on sovereignty in exchange for the conclusion of a post-election alliance with the SNP in the event early elections. Although Nicola Sturgeon, head of the Scottish Government, does not declare himself "great supporter" of Corbyn, especially because of its confusing and changing position on the Brexit, it has opened the door to a "progressive alliance" with the Labor Party to prevent the Conservatives from holding the government back.
"It's the Scottish Parliament that has to decide to hold another referendum. We [los laboristas] we would not block such a decision that corresponds to the Scottish people. That's democracy, "he said on Tuesday number two from Corbyn, John McDonnell. This statement went unnoticed by many observers, but The times He inserted it yesterday as the main theme of his cover in a warning to Johnson. That the United Kingdom will eventually dismember if the Prime Minister persists in his efforts to bring Brexit to its ultimate consequences.
The prospect that Corbyn can raise Johnson as head of the government does not seduce her or see her as a solution for the multi-party front that wants to avoid at all costs the British break-up of the EU in October. This heterogeneous bloc in terms of political affiliation, but united in its determination to put an end to a wild Brexit, plays with the scenario of the success of a motion of censure against Johnson proposing to immediately propose a government of national unity. The only objective of this operation would be to stop the Brexit clock and ask the EU to extend the activation of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty when one of its members leaves.
Not all Labor MPs would support this initiative – seats were won in constituencies that include Brexit – but Europeans from the Liberal Democratic Party, Scottish and Welsh nationalists and a handful of independent parliamentarians rallied. These are the calculations of the conservative Dominic Grieve, former Attorney General, leader of the rebels in his own ranks and militant against the hard Brexit.
scenarios
Given Grieve's position, Downing Street's senior advisor, Dominic Cummings, has been implanted, claiming that the eurosceptic victory of the 2016 referendum would not be overturned, regardless of the means to fill it. Cummings, the great strategist behind the Vote Leave campaign backed by many lies, has come to suggest that if Johnson loses a motion of censure, he would not feel obliged to leave office immediately. The schedule of new elections that he would convene after October 31 and once the Brexit would be run for the brave would be on the agenda. With this motto, having made possible the outcome of the 2016 polls, it would aim to neutralize the eurosceptic ultra-right (Brexit, Nigel Farage) and win the elections.
The Cummings scenario involves a constitutional crisis. If Johnson retains his post after losing his majority in a motion of censure, what should Isabel II do as an arbitrator? "The dispensing of his services" is Grieve's answer. Cummings' counterattack seems to be a lapidary: the most populist Boris will use the slogan "of the power of the people against politicians" to resist.
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