Lacunza assumed and inaugurated the transition mode to the government

The minister was clear to appear in society in the microcine of the Palacio de Hacienda. With regard to the dollar, he baderted that "a higher exchange rate is not necessary", that "volatility affects the ordinary citizen" and that "we have sufficient reason to believe that after the rise, the exchange rate is greater than the point of equilibrium ". He added that "any upward pressure will not be due to real problems but to speculation", which he considered "harmful to the economy". According to the new exchange criteria that will defend the government and which would be coordinated in a double band between Macri, Lacunza and Guido Sandleris and economists close to the opposition "albertismo", the dollar should evolve between 57 and 62 maximum pesos. Any modification would allow a larger intervention than usual by the Central Bank, including, eventually, a dose greater than 250 million US dollars authorized by the IMF. This value should be adjusted to account for accumulated inflation from the second half of August and the September CPI in order to arrive at the October elections (or later, if the political reality requires it) with an updated level. According to Sandleris' vision, for this currency exchange to be completed, the markets should be convinced of the desire to execute the Lacunza-Sandleris tandem in the last days of August. In the meantime, two accounts will be tracked daily to badess the foreign exchange supply: the dollar amount that exporters continue to liquidate (which continues in recent days at a good rate between US $ 100 and 200 million and which could be accelerated given the certainty of some stability of the exchange rate) and the evolution of the trade balance. In this last story, the official figures are, in a sense, auspicious. It is said that the trade account shows a surplus of 1 billion US dollars, which will lead to a positive figure of more than 12 billion US dollars at the end of the year. It is true that this result is obtained with a collapse of imports and a concentration of primary exports. But addressing this reality will be one of the tasks of the next government. No from Lacunza.

The new direction of the Creole economy is convinced that only the week beginning September 2ndIf a certain exchange rate were maintained, the daily attention paid to the evolution of the demand for foreign currency could be somewhat relaxed. And only then will it be necessary to start badessing the effects of September's inflation and the potential delays of that rise. And chat relaxes with Macri.

The second mission that Lacunza will begin to execute will be to restore relations with the IMF. And he will make sure that the agency releases the US $ 5.6 billion of the third disbursement of the year and that with that, it has completed the closing of 2019 and, therefore, the management of Mauricio Macri without risk of failure. The minister will face the task by using tax figures and diplomacy in equal shares. In the first case, the new minister has prepared figures for the first half, which would show that the outgoing leadership of Dujovne has completed his task with a primary surplus higher than the targets set at the agency. This would represent about 34,514 million pesos, or 0.2% of GDP. And that the package of post-election spending announced last week will cost $ 59,986 million, which represents 0.3% of GDP, which would then be offset by the collection of VAT and other taxes that would result . Improvement of the internal market. The intention of Lacunza and his collaborators is that the visitors of the Fund "buy" the data of the first semester, close the inspection with the results until July and give an indulgent glimpse of what happens between August and September. We know that, on the part of the IMF, this type of approach is not very receptive. And The mission that Ricardo Cardarelli will command will be difficult to take into account when calculating this tax cost with the inflation-collection comparative variable. The IMF has always struggled to take into account the gap between tax resources and rising prices, which, at the best time (June), still maintained a negative gap of 3 percentage points. In September, there will be an acceleration of inflation and the cost of the budget envelope of nearly $ 60 billion will only worsen the situation. The whole diplomatic strategy of Lacunza should appear to visitors of the IMF. The argument will be simple. If you do not get the $ 5.6 billion that should be released from Washington in September, the general agreement may yield, just weeks before the Argentines vote. And one must explain from Washington why the most important agreement reached in the history of the organization collapsed two years after its signing and a few hours after its local mentor (Macri) was defeated by democratic elections with the IMF as coach in the corner. If that fails, there may still be a plan B: the open phone line between Mauricio Macri and Donald Trump.

If these negotiations with the IMF were to be successful, as expected, the year with the agency would be virtually closed. A final payment of $ 1 billion would be made in December, well below the three projects in 2019. The program was specially designed by the macrismo of the time, handcrafted so that this year's dollars come before the presidential elections; so that there is then a reasonable time to negotiate the eventual change of expectation into an extended facility. Something happened on the way to this goal. The PASS elections have certainly led to another management with IMF Managing Director Alejandro Werner to discuss the new conditions. Guillermo Nielsen and the "albertistas" have already provided data: international banks escape the fact that, at the end of the negotiating track ", the IMF will sign the expiry of the confirmation and a long-term agreement (10 years), with The new government