Lacunza budget for 2020 | It provides a dollar …

The Ministry of Finance on Wednesday released the main variables that will appear in the 2020 budget, which will be sent to Congress next week. The official project, which should be the road map of the election winners of October 27, provides for a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 1%, an average annual dollar of 67 pesos, a trade surplus of 17 473 million dollars and inflation at the end of the 34% period.

The only thing that has circulated for the time being to the Treasury is a table which, in addition to the variables mentioned above, forecasts consumption growth of 0.7%, a 7% increase in exports and 1.3% of imports. , a decrease in investment of 4.3% and a current account surplus of 0.4%.

This is the fourth budget bill introduced by the Macri government. The project approved by the Senate in December 2016 predicted for the following year an annual inflation of 17%, an economic growth of the order of 3.5% of the GDP, a dollar to 20 pesos and a budget deficit of 4%. , 2 percent. That year, the economy finally grew by 2.9%, the dollar to 18.95 and the budget deficit by 3.9%. Although projection and reality showed some differences, they were official forecasts closer to what was happening.

In 2018, however, the official forecasts were ridiculed by the crisis. The project presented in September 2017 by then Minister Nicolás Dujovne, then approved by the National Congress, provided for growth of 3.5%, a budget deficit of 3.2%, an average dollar of 19% . , 30% and inflation of 15.7%. "We believe that inflation in Argentina will continue to decline, that is why we will work on the basis of inflation targets of the BCRA, which by 2018 provide for a target of 10 % with a 2% up or down difference, giving an annual average of 15.7% for the CPI, "said Dujovne.

Among the causes supposed to explain this GDP growth, the project cited a 3.3% increase in private consumption and 12% of investments (which it even planned to represent 17% of GDP). GDP). In terms of trade balance, the national administration estimated that imports (6.8%) would increase more than exports (5.6%).

Finally, the closure of external credit, the devaluation and the return to the IMF were the expression of a major failure that was highlighted by figures very different from the official figures. GDP did not rise by 3.5% but fell by 2.5%, inflation was not 15.7% but 47.6% and the dollar exceeded 25 pesos in May and then rose to 30 pesos in August Already 40 pesos in September.

Dujovne also had to prepare the 2019 budget and the data was once again far from reality. The former TV columnist was expecting a drop in revenue of only 0.5%, to one dollar to reach 40.10 pesos and 23% inflation from December this year. "We are planning a slowdown in inflation in 2019, after the inflationary shock of the last months of 2018," says the official text. Although the final figures for 2019 are not yet available, the draft 2020 budget itself includes projections for the end of this year and GDP may fall by 2.6%, an average exchange rate of 48 pesos . and 53% inflation.