Lacunza doubts the viability of debt

The International Monetary Fund is currently receiving Hernán Lacunza and Guido Sandleris to begin technical discussions on the issue of debt sustainability. While the finance minister on Tuesday said figures indicating that it accounted for 68 percent of GDP, according to the calculations they made, it comes out of the international organization at 93 percent this year.

Beyond the difference in numbers – and the calculations used to reach them – debt talks are one of the four areas on which the IMF wants more certainty for the coming months.

While reperfilation is underway but is still waiting for definitions (which will surely have to wait for the change of government) for medium and long-term debt, the IMF is reviewing its regulations for the case of a loan like the one granted to the government. Argentina, exceptional access.

The possibility of a loan greater than that corresponding to each country according to its quota (that of Argentina is 1001%) is given if there is a "high probability" that the debt of the member of the IMF in question is sustainable.

On this aspect, there are three possibilities: if the high probability condition is given, the IMF can lend unhindered. At the other extreme, "if this condition is not met, a debt restructuring is usually needed deep enough to restore debt sustainability with a high probability before the IMF can activate a loan." , details the context

But Argentina is in the "gray zone": in this case, the IMF will grant exceptional access without requiring reduction of the previous debt, provided that the country also receives funding from other creditors (official or private) during the program.

If market access is lost ", and the private rights that expire during the program would drain considerably the resources available, it would generally be appropriate to change the profile of these rights." Thus, "this could lead to a slightly less restrictive adjustment path and, at the same time, reduce the amount of financing required by the IMF." Although the profile change is a form of debt restructuring, it is probably less expensive for the debtor., the creditors and the system than a definitive restructuring of the debt ", explains the agency.

The IMF's meetings with Argentina began yesterday at a technical level between the team led by Roberto Cardarelli and secretaries Santiago Bausili, Sebastián Katz and Rodrigo Pena.