Late vaccination rate in southern US could lead to summer wave, experts warn

As the United States advances its vaccination plan to have 70% of the population inoculated with at least one dose by July 4, and, Although the last few days have shown encouraging figures that explain the reduction in infections and deaths from the coronavirus nationwide, specialists warn that some southern states could face an increase in coronavirus cases over the summer.

A dozen states, including many in the Northeast, including Maine, Massachusetts and Connecticut, have already reached a threshold of at least 70% adults with a single dose of the vaccine. On a national level, 51.08% of the population has received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, while 41.55% are fully vaccinated, according to Our World in data. But in the South, this marker is different in several states.

In fact, in 15 states, including Arkansas, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia and Louisiana, about half or less of adults have received a dose of the vaccine, according to an analysis of the New York Times. In two states, Alabama and Mississippi, it would take about a year to deliver a dose to 70% of the population at the current rate of distribution..

Public health experts and officials in states with lower vaccination rates say the president’s benchmark will help reduce cases and deaths, but it is somewhat arbitrary: even though 70% of adults are vaccinated, the virus and its more contagious variants can spread among those who are not.

But they remain concerned that residents are more susceptible to infection as restrictions ease across the country, the sense of urgency to get vaccinated decreases, and many Americans in warmer climates avoid the disease. heat and head inside, where the virus is spreading.

However, if there is a summer wave in the south, experts believe it won’t be as bad as last summer because at least some people are vaccinated and treatments have improved. Younger people, who are the least likely to be vaccinated, will be the most vulnerable during any peak this summer, said Edward Trapido, epidemiologist and associate dean of research at Louisiana State University School of Public Health. While death or serious illness is not as common among young people with COVID-19, it is possible, he warned.

“The wave is unlikely to end up crippling hospitals and causing many deaths,” Trapido added. “There are some populations that are under-vaccinated, and that’s where we expect to see an increase.”. To avoid a sudden rise in summer, southern states should catch up with northeastern states which have already received at least one dose for 70% of their populationsaid Peter Hotez, vaccine expert at Baylor College of Medicine, who predicts a new wave in the South because “we are far from underperforming in terms of immunization.”

Mississippi, for example, has the lowest vaccination rate in the country, with 34% of the population receiving at least one dose. Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves said on Sunday that despite the low number of vaccinations, the number of cases indicates that the risk of contracting COVID-19 in his state is low.

Another concern of experts is the number of trials. Trapido said a decrease in the number would make it difficult to control outbreaks before a possible summer increase.

Nationally, the number of reported daily tests has dropped significantly. As of Thursday, per case, some 316,000 tests were performed, well below the winter peak, when more than 2 million were administered on certain days, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

“We don’t have a lot of people rushing to get tested because all the posts are about vaccines,” Trapido added. “It’s important to remind people that if they are concerned, it is worth testing.”

Even statewide numbers that look promising may miss local problem areas, warned Joseph Kanter, a U.S. health official in mid-May. Louisiana. In some jurisdictions in this state, people vaccinated with a single dose make up less than 20% of the population.

Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, US accumulates more than 33.3 million infections and 597,600 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center monitor. Yesterday, Sunday June 6, 5,395 positive cases were reported nationwide for COVID-19 and an average of 500 Americans a day still die from this infection, almost all without vaccination.

Last year, even in summer, the United States had peaks of more than 65,000 cases per day. With the arrival of autumn in late 2020 and winter 2021, cases have increased sharply. The highest point in infections was January 2, a day that reported 300,462 new infections, according to Our World in Data. And the highest point in deaths was on January 12, with 4,477 in a single day. During that month, the average number of deaths was 3,000 per day.

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