Lebanon, an example of how a country can collapse in a very short time

After years of reconstruction, the historic center of Beirut sparkled. The famous Clock Tower in the Solidère district has regained its original shine. Place Nejme, where it is located, is once again flowered and green. The new promenade of Zaituna bay It showed the power of the sheikhs of the Emirates who moored their extraordinary yachts there. The Corniche, Beirut’s traditional waterfront, filled with families as the sun set to receive the cool Mediterranean breeze. Almost a quarter of a century had passed since the end of the civil war (1975-1990) and Lebanon seemed to have healed the wounds and regained the splendor of the time when we spoke of “The Paris of the Middle East”.

Civil war in neighboring Syria began to dismantle the recovery in 2011. One million refugees weighed too heavily on the Lebanese economy. The south of the country was still affected by the wars of the militarized Shia Hezbollah party with the Israelis. The same terrorist group has mingled on behalf of Iran in the war in Syria and the peoples of the south have lived ever since from funeral to funeral. Then came the political crisis that left the country no formal government for years. Popular protests erupted. People have complained about the economic crisis. A financial corral has been imposed. The final straw was the terrible explosion of the port of Beirut of August 4, 2020 which devastated a good part of the city and left 200 dead. From now on the widespread collapse started with a crisis in the energy sector which resulted in a water shortage. The other tokens for lack of food and fuel were dropping very quickly.

The World Bank describes the country’s situation as “One of the most serious crises in the world since the middle of the 19th century.” And in the study centers, they already place Lebanon as an example of “How deep and how fast can a country fall.” Writer and translator Lina Mounzer told the Lebanese daily L’Orient Today: “I never thought I would live to see the end of the world. But that is exactly what we are experiencing today in Lebanon. The end of a whole way of life. I have read the headlines on Us and they are a list of facts and figures. Society is on the verge of total implosion”.

Cash lost more than 90% of its value since 2019; we calculate that 78% of the population lives in poverty; there is a serious shortage of fuel and gas; food increased by 500% in one year; and the minimum wage is less than $ 50. Social networks are full of requests for help because a large part of the drugs are not available. Some announce that they change some pills for cancer treatment in exchange for bottled water. The lines at gas stations are endless, drivers line up at midnight and sleep in their cars while waiting for the opening the next morning. Many times this is all unnecessary. They spend the whole night in vain because no truck with fuel arrives.

The economic crisis, as always in the Middle East, launched a geopolitical offer. After the abolition of the fuel subsidy and a 66% increase in the price of gasoline, solutions have been sought abroad. Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah, who functions as a power parallel to the government, went to ask for help from his Iranian allies. From Tehran, they immediately announced that in the coming days an oil tanker with hundreds of thousands of liters of fuel will arrive at the port of Beirut. The move defies US sanctions imposed on Iran for its nuclear career. US Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea then announced the possible importation of fuel from Jordan via Syria. Another risky gesture because it gives air to the regime of Bashar al Assad. There is also the possibility of receiving gas from Egypt. And everything seems closer to the interests of the authorities than to the Lebanese people. “No matter which of these options comes to fruition, it’s not a solution, it’s like putting a bandage on a tumor. It’s a media stunt rather than a real solution to the catastrophic gasoline crisis», Says Karim Merhej, analyst at the Institut del Tahrir.

According to Merhej, the duel between the pro-Iranian and pro-American camp reflects the attempt of the Lebanese political elite to prolong a system that led Lebanon to economic collapse. One of the keys to this crisis is the inefficiency of the public electricity company which costs the Lebanese over a billion dollars per year and is unable to generate more than three hours of electricity per day. For Merhej, the solution lies in three structural reforms: “the transition to renewable energies, a complete reform of the electricity company and a well-connected public transport system. Unfortunately now all that could happen too late, these reforms should have been implemented 20 years ago”.

Lack of electricity is the worst punishment. Each neighborhood has electricity between one and three hours a day. The rest comes from the huge generators installed on the sidewalks or, directly, in the streets. But neither can they work several hours a day, no diesel. The lack of electricity, for example, put an end to Beirut’s important nightlife. Last year more than 1,000 restaurants closed which has put more than 25,000 people out of work directly and many more indirectly.

“Beirut, as we knew it, is gone. Even during the 1975-90 civil war, the city had a certain bohemian air to it. There was bombardment, but also glamor, a joie de vivre. But now the nightlife areas are mostly closed and dark. During the war, there was a cease-fire which allowed a certain rest, even if it was ephemeral. But in a world that runs on fossil fuels, what life is possible when they are no longer available? What a life without electricity, without cars, without gas for cooking, without Internet, without drinking water? There is no rest in this type of economic war, ”describes writer Lina Mounzer.

The middle class, which still has some resources, has taken the same path it took during the war: expatriation. The closest and most direct point is that of Cyprus. Larnaca is 25 minutes by plane. In the 1980s, more than 100,000 Lebanese families settled on the island. Now there are no exact figures, but around 60,000 Lebanese have arrived in recent months. Lebanese businessman Georges Chahwan, owner of dozens of real estate projects in Cyprus, told French television that sold “nearly 400 apartments to the Lebanese between 2016 and 2021 … including a hundred in the last six months”. The island is a member of the European Union and offers permanent residence for a certain level of investment in real estate, he explained. Of course, all this is for those who have been able to perpetuate their savings because 65% of the middle class, some 3.25 million people, have fallen into poverty.

The Lebanese were proud of their resilience. They said they could survive anything. They had overcome 15 years of war, the invasion and political tensions with Syria, the wars with Israel, the collapse of the economy. But now they realize that you can always fall a little more. Lebanon is a test for many other societies on the planet who feel invulnerable and which, overnight, can lead to an immeasurable abyss have everything to be prosperous.

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