Lebanon’s collapse between Saudi Arabia-Iran dispute

To understand the final phase of the disappearance of a state that hangs over Lebanon, it is not necessary to go back to the years of its civil war (1975-1990). The gravity of the situation and its current consequences must be analyzed in the deterioration of Lebanese democratic institutions at the hands of the politico-terrorist group Hezbollah from 2005 to the present day. However, the current state of affairs was not the sole responsibility of the pro-Iranian organization, the active or passive complicity of all political parties was decisive in arriving at the current scenario.

However, the aggravation of the crisis which threatens to be terminal has its origin in the middle of the year 2017. It is at this time that the Saudi Royal House addressed an official letter to the presidential palace of Baabda, it described a series of policies carried out by the parliament and the presidency of Lebanon which were seen as a plan of aggression against Saudi Arabia. It was the turning point that marked the fate of the country and worsened relations between Riyadh and Beirut due to the ultimate influence on all Lebanese institutions of the Iranian-backed group. The Iranian regime is a sworn enemy of Riyadh, therefore, King Salman has decided to turn his back on the land of the cedar.

At that time, the minister – currently appointed, but without taking office for lack of being able to form a government – Saad Hariri, also held the same post in Beirut, but had traveled to the Saudi capital from where he had sent his resignation. .

Alongside these events, the Saudi Minister of Security Affairs of the Gulf Cooperation Council Group (CCPG), Thamer Al-Sabhan, made a very harsh statement to Michel Aoun, the President of Lebanon, where he was warned that the Lebanese government would be treated as an enemy government of Saudi Arabia if it persisted in its approach to Tehran. At that time, Iran’s influence over Beirut was already total in Lebanese national decisions. In response, Lebanon accused Saudi Arabia of generating intrigue and greater tension that did not work with the complex political scenario of the Cedar Country.

At the same time, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah overtook Riyadh in a nationally televised speech where he blamed the kingdom for attempting to impose its policies on Lebanese decisions and threatened with reprisals, Nasrallah was praised by his supporters and allies. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Saad Hariri announced his resignation from his post in November of the same year in Riyadh.

It has never been clear why Hariri resigned from the Saudi kingdom, where he stayed for several months before returning to Beirut, whether or not he stayed there voluntarily. What was clear at the time was that Lebanon has definitely lost the only Arab regional partner to support it financially and economically throughout its history.

From that point on, Nasrallah waged a campaign of constant criticism of any Saudi policies towards Beirut, accusing the kingdom of creating confusion and overturning the foundations of sectarian coexistence in Lebanon. The Shiite group, allied with Iran and Syria, believes that the authorities in Riyadh are guilty of creating the climate of tension that has fragmented Lebanon to weaken the Islamic Republic of Iran. Hezbollah accuses the Saudis of having promoted – along with Israel and the United States – the actions of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (TEL), which tried in The Hague the assassins of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, the father of Saad Hariri, which happened via a terrorist truck bomb attack on February 15, 2005. The three defendants in this investigation, one of whom was convicted in absentia for the crime, belong to Hezbollah. But he’s on the run. Nevertheless, Nasrallah, denied that there is any evidence of this political assassination or any other political assassination for which Hezbollah can be held responsible, and despite his current fragile state of health, in one of his last televised speeches, the secretary general of Hezbollah asked Ironically, Lebanese, why in this time of severe economic crisis in the country, Saudi Arabia is not helping Lebanon?

The answer to Nasrallah’s question is simple and common sense, every Lebanese citizen knows it as well as the international community, this is because: as long as the Iranians retain control of the country’s national decision-making and Hezbollah continues to claim the right to establish policies that lead the country to war or peace on behalf of Iran and acting as its army of occupation in LebanonSaudi Arabia will not help Lebanon out of its political and economic crisis.

There was also an official response last Thursday from the authorities of the Council of Gulf Countries which highlighted the impossibility of injecting money into the Lebanese economy given the systemic corruption of its political leaders, including the Bank. Central Lebanon which can no longer support local currency, the Lebanese pound has been brutally devalued, reaching a price of 15,000 LL for every US dollar, which has led 70% of Lebanese to live below the poverty line, while 80% of the population suffers from problems meeting their needs. basic food, wages have fallen to between 100 and 200 US dollars per month, the fuel shortage is undeniable and electricity is rationed between 6 and 8 hours a day.

The calamitous state that Lebanon is going through has worsened since August last year when the explosion in the port of Beirut took place, placing the country on the brink and on the verge of being considered a state failing by the international community. This did not happen simply because economic aid from France and the European Union (EU) is expected, given the current but delayed pledge from President Macron who has twice visited Beirut to deliver a programmatic document to President Michel Aoun which calls for the urgent formation of a new government and a series of points and commitments to clean up the economy, something very complex to do given the state of the country and the current policies of Iran that are contrary to these objectives.

For 42 years, Saudi Arabia and Iran have competed to acquire the greatest regional influence and impose on the Muslim world the supremacy of their own branch of Islam (Sunni and Shiite) and have known a constant confrontation that some specialists of the world Arab To qualify as a new cold war in the Middle East, this can be seen in the support for various organizations and violent groups in the conflicts in Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria. Thus, after the “Abraham” agreements concluded under the Trump administration, the Saudis, on behalf of the Gulf States, explain to the United States and France their refusal to help Lebanon while it continues to be a Iranian protectorate ruled de facto by Hezbollah.

It is also clear that in the case of Lebanon, one cannot blame all the Lebanese for having been hostages to the Arab-Islamic causes of others or for having used the territory of the country as a battleground for the problem. Palestinian-Israeli, while the reality of these facts, they do not represent the totality of the feelings and thoughts of all their citizens. However, in the past, many Lebanese naturalized without responsibly analyzing the damage done to the country by the movements of Hezbollah and Iran and did not bother to neutralize the policies of the Shiite group, which transported them all to this ruinous present and to the brink of destruction, vanishing as a state.

These, and not others, are the reasons why Saudi financial aid will never come and without it the current scenario of poverty and breakdown will exacerbate the very bad situation facing the Lebanese. And this was clearly demonstrated a few days ago, when at a televised conference by the local LBC network attended by regional and European diplomatic representatives, an expressionless and worn-out prime minister, Hassan Diab, made an urgent appeal and desperate to international credit agencies; which he also extended to the Saudi Crown Prince and European leaders to help prevent what he called: the definitive disappearance of Lebanon.

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