Legalization of marijuana in Mexico: what real impact it will have on narco

One of the main motivations for the regularization of marijuana in Mexico is to fight drug trafficking, but experts doubt its impact since cannabis is no longer the main source of income for the cartels.

The House of Representatives this week approved legislation that regulates the recreational use of marijuana to comply with a Supreme Court warrant that declared its ban unconstitutional, and the only thing missing is the Senate vote.

During Wednesday’s debate, MP Arturo Hernández, ruling The National Regeneration Movement (Morena), defended regularization, arguing that the military war on drug trafficking initiated by Felipe Calderón (2006-2012) “has caused more damage than the health effects” of drugs.

Reducing drug-related violence

In 2020, despite imprisonment by the covid-19 pandemic, Mexico recorded 34,515 intentional homicide victims, which almost equates to the all-time high of 34,582 murders in 2019.

According to the NGO Criminal Stoplight, 80% of homicides recorded each year in the country are attributable to organized crime, clashes and account adjustments.

Therefore, to the director of the organization, Santiago Roel, does not doubt that “the regulation of marijuana and other drugs that have a black market in Mexico can help reduce violence”.

“The only way to fight this violence is through economic principles and not through bullets,” Roel told Efe on Sunday, who believes that regularization will divert the market away from drug cartels.

The new federal law on the regulation of cannabis and the reforms of the The General Health Law and Penal Code discussed in Congress provide for expanding licensed possession of marijuana to 28 grams, growing eight plants at home, and permits for planting and selling cannabis for recreational purposes.

Mexico will thus join Uruguay, Canada and certain states of the United States which have regulated the issue.

The director of Criminal Stoplight estimated that this regulation comes “late”Mexico should have been a “pioneer” in the world because of the violence it endures, and demanded that poppy cultivation continue on the same path.

Although he admitted that the United States, the world’s biggest drug user, has traditionally used Mexico as a “scapegoat”., blaming him for selling narcotics and urging him not to regularize drugs.

According to the RIA Institute, which studies drug policy in Mexico, marijuana production in that country ranges between 15,000 and 27,000 tonnes per year.

The cultivated area is approximately 114,000 hectares, 72% of which are located in the region known as the Golden Triangle, located between the states of Sinaloa, Chihuahua and Durango, an area virtually dominated by the Sinaloa cartel.

Researcher Falko Ernst, from the Crisis Group, told Efe that regularization is good because it can empty the prisons of consumers and small vendors.

But he said “there are doubts about reducing levels of violence because marijuana for the majority of cartels is no longer as relevant as other drugs.”

A Senate study of Mexico calculated in 2016 that Mexican cartels received between $ 1,000 and $ 2,000 million per year for the sale of marijuana in the United States and calculated losses of between 15% and 26% of their total income if Mexico were legalized..

In addition, he foresaw “An economic prejudice for the cartels, in particular that of Sinaloa” due to a drop in demand from the Mexican plant due to the expansion of legal production in the United States.

Something that is already starting to be a reality, according to the US Anti-Drug Agency (DEA) in its 2020 National Drug Threat Assessment report.

Although he still considers Mexico as “The largest source of marijuana supply in the United States,” notes that its presence is declining, from 287,000 kilograms in 2018 to 249,000 kilograms in 2019.

On the contrary, it highlights the “large quantities” of fentanyl, heroin, methamphetamines and cocaine distributed by the Jalisco Nueva Generación Cartel (CJNG) and the Sinaloa Cartel in the United States.

For this reason, Ernst stressed that the “survival” of the cartels does not depend on marijuana, besides having a great capacity to “extort” peasants who choose the legal route of planting.

“There is a great risk if you do not accompany the legalization of security strategies”, he concluded.

With information from EFE

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