Let's change materializes the mistrust of the markets with a dollar to $ 60

In the first place, it was a chaotic government – Melconián of the National Bank criticizing his government and wishing to recover its credits with Argentine creditors, all at the same time. By the way, the bank led by González Fraga is now giving losses, while private companies are earning fortunes.

– Can chaos drivers avoid chaos?

The second is this: we have had ups and downs since December 10, 2015. From President Macri to his officials we explain the life we ​​have as if they were marginalized. In congresses, they pay to hear it. Generous country!

These vulgar expressions of "national neoliberalism" indicate profound political disorientation. It is the distorted way of reasoning a self-coded figure as an enemy of the humble. The primitive explanations of these standard-men are nothing other than an indication of their ideological and political weakness, which can no longer "manufacture a consent" (Lippmann's concept).

technology industrial

They represent the immanent danger of neoliberal democracies. Even these days, they are pushing to penetrate Peronism. Since the nineties, the true division has not occurred between the vernacular technocracy and the populist pbadions, but between its vicious circle and a new national and popular project responding to the real challenges of the country.

We hardly knew the designations in December 2015, the profile of President Macri's economic team, the best team of the last 50 years; We are aware that we have not received favorable incentives for those who have memory. These were faces known to many or a few, those who, in the 1990s, had promoted similar policies with Menem and De la Rúa. Even surprisingly, remember famous family names from the Martínez de Hoz period. The sons. So, of course, it could not happen to the team responsible for an economic policy favorable to national interests or citizenship.

With what we have been waiting since the beginning for a situation similar to the one we are experiencing: bands, claudication, defections and, finally, imputations of responsibility to the etheric universe for the results.

From now on, for the future, we could conclude that the performance of a known cast can be anticipated. You must googling or ask the elders. This is not a science.

NO PLAN

Without purpose and with enormous ability to miss any chance of success. First, a plan was necessary, but there was none. President Macri was deceived by letting marketing replace strategic political-economic planning, giving too much importance to the recommendations of Durán Barba and Marcos Peña. Including incompetent officials in the cabinet, to make favors to different areas.

The second priority was ambitious; to please the markets excessively and at the same time demagoguery with the people. Between 2016 and 2017, they sought to balance the budget deficit by reducing taxes, increasing spending and integrating interest payments. Lucia is fed up with exoticism.

Since 2018, no bank has increased its exposure. We already had a lot, in a very short time. Then the government tried to solve the problem in front of the IMF. The attacks on primary spending, after reducing retentions, triggered this huge recession, with unemployment and a sharp fall in wages.

FIRST PEOPLE (Amartya Sen)

The former CEO of the National Bank criticized the retirement of elderly people who had not contributed and, in the Fantino program, when the driver specified that his mother was one of the people who had managed to retire because of the moratorium, the economist said: run for emotivity. " -How does so much cruelty lie in a boy who distils from the arrabal?

"If I stopped serving the lowly, I would not feel well. I would feel betrayed. Because my origin is as follows: I am a neighborhood boy who knew the convent, the privation of my friends … I also have friends in the upper middle clbad … I can go to a village of misery, talk to people and make myself heard. And I can do the same with the people of the upper clbad of Argentina "(Antonio Cafiero, The Founding Renovation, June 1986, El Cid Editor). Doctor in economics.

It is about placing the workers and the unemployed – people – by giving priority to the rest of the conflicts. We are going through a devastating economic crisis that has led to exponential growth of poverty and misery in Argentina. Frequent dollar bounces and inflation have resulted in a decline in output and a high unemployment rate, fortunately until today, without political or social disruption. The extraordinarily moderate opposition and peaceful citizenship make this transition possible. The acolyte officials provoke.

RESTRUCTURING DEBT

But today, the central problem is the restructuring of the debt. The makers of this bankruptcy say that it is unthinkable. They had to take this into account when they allowed the country to borrow beyond the prudence and financial manipulation of the BCRA, Finance and Finance, with absolute negligence.

A reactivation plan could have avoided and excluded any possibility of restructuring. We have to watch fictions every day. A lethargy that suggests that the great problem is due to the fact that "things have happened".

The recent history of Argentina shows that an orderly restructuring of sovereign debt is possible. And, we must not forget that without economic growth as in 2000, it is impossible to repay debts.

An orderly restructuring is possible in the context of the new IMF credit lines. Traditional lines do not take advantage. This is not apocalyptic. What is scary is to condemn citizens to live 10 years of hunger and scarcity. This is serious for investors in sovereign debt. They are afraid of losing capital, but if they are reasonably in agreement, they will keep to the last cent.

IMF

"… Argentina is a typical example. He faithfully applied many of the lessons we thought we had learned from the mid-to-late-90s crises, but a combination of new mistakes and some old ones caused some regrets. Therefore, inevitably, we now have a new set of lessons to draw and some old to retain a little better "(Anne Krueger, IMF, Conference on" The Argentine Crisis ", Cambridge, July 17, 2002)

These events again raised questions about the country's relations with the IMF, as they unfolded as its economic policy was closely monitored by Lagarde and his technical team, as part of a program supported by the IMF. # 39; agency. In 2018, twenty years later, Argentina entered a deep recession similar to that which began in the second quarter of 1998. Partly because of the self-imposed regime of over-achieving objectives agreed with the IMF. Dujovne ortho-heterodox has increasingly resorted to macroeconomic policy instruments to ensure recovery.

It is curious to note that the slowdown in the economy has not caused any concern among international investors. That they did not measure the consequences of the external debt service charge that had to be cumulated with the IMF loan, reaching a level that made the debt unsustainable.

Policies aimed at reducing the primary deficit are punishing people for experiencing a ten-year GDP drop, verbigracia Greece. With low growth, it is barely recovered and the deficit is not reduced. Without growth, debts can not be paid.

To the IMF, banks, businesses and ordinary citizens; they should recognize that Alberto Fernández represents the main and most timely version of the national and popular movement that brought Argentina out of hell. Against this arrogant politically correct elite of the business world – who insults and apologizes. That he despises the modesty of the people – who was wise four years ago. That he did not vote them at PASO and that they consider it silly, to vote against sbady mockery and immutable lie.

Experience Change of Mandate, it is the most prosaic representation that we can quote, since the return of democracy. Far from being a mere phenomenon of malpractice. Today it is a profound cultural, economic and republican recession. Paradoxically, those who were discursive sponsors today are realizing the example of the loss of market confidence, permanent instability and legal uncertainty.

* Master in International Economic Policy, Doctor of Political Science, Professor of Master. www.hacer.com.ar, www.pablo.tigani.com author of 6 books, 900 articles and articles.