Let's change the illusion with the conquest of five governorates

Third-party scenarios, the division of the YP, particular conjunctures, broader alliances than national ones, sometimes fuel these interpretations. Both from Casa Rosada and from the PRO Barracks, they believe that despite the crisis context, it is possible to approach the goal of painting almost half of the country in yellow. The greatest optimism is found in Santa Cruz, San Luis, La Rioja and Santa Fe. To a lesser extent, Chubut. And where it seems difficult but possible, it is in Entre Ríos, Tucumán and Salta. And near Macrismo, there are versions of Chaco and La Pampa. For some, there is no possibility, others keep a glimmer of hope.

There is consensus that the alliance led by Mauricio Macri has nothing to do with Tierra del Fuego, Rio Negro, San Juan, Misiones, Catamarca, Formosa and Cordoba, although the last one was not presented as a change.

Tercios

"While the candidates have autonomy, we try to explain to the radicals who are at the origin of the formula that Macri measures better than them, that it is an error that to take off". National offices with interference in the provinces, they say answers plotted. And this applies mainly to districts where there are three forces with possibilities. That's where Cambiemos thinks he can hit.

In Santa Fe, for example, another vote by vote is seen as in 2015 between the ruling party of the Progressive Front, which proposes Antonio Bonfatti, the PJ who will have trainees between Omar Perotti and María Eugenia Bielsa, and Cambiemos with the radical José Corral. in the head. They know near Macri that in these cases, the local government has an advantage, but they still look "very competitive".

In other cases, the possibility of third parties is given by the disunity of the PJ. The most emblematic cases: San Luis with the brothers Rodríguez Saá fighting in general; Tucumán, with a similar battle between the governor Juan Manzur and his predecessor Jose Alperovich; and to a lesser extent, La Rioja, where the candidacy of Sergio Casas was rejected after the decision of the Court, the map was blurry, even without a date, but we know that there will be a candidate for the party at power and that the former governor, Luis Beder Herrera, will show up outside. of the PJ. Chubut has its own seasonings.

For the puntana fight, the illusion in the national offices lies in a formula with names installed, as the exmandatario Claudio Poggi (exaliado of Rodríguez Saá) accompanied by Mayor Enrique Ponce. Poggi had already defeated the brothers in 2017 within the OSP and had made it election to the generals. Now, the dispersion of Alberto and Adolfo can play in his favor.

Tucumán seems a somewhat less favorable scenario for Cambiemos, as the province's PJ footprint seems difficult to break through. But the national senator Silvia Elías de Pérez can also take advantage of the border crossing Manzur-Alperovich.

In Chubut, the radical MP Gustavo Menna rushes behind the governor Mariano Arcioni and the PJ, who will have trainees between Carlos Linares (mayor of Comodoro Rivadavia), former vice governor Gustavo Mac Karthy and Omar Burgoa (support actor priori). There, the division of the PJ has other roots, since the wing that responded to the late Mario Das Neves was nailed to the official party Chubut We Are All. At Casa Rosada, they still believe that Menna made a mistake leaving Macri. According to them, the strategy should be to appropriate 30% of the President's intention to vote and add other beans.

In Chaco, there seems to be little chance for Carim Peche. Only a slight light could be opened if the PCs were divided between Governor Domingo Peppo and Sector K, commanded by his predecessor, Jorge Capitanich. The Pampan radical Daniel Kroneberger must also lose against the justiceist Sergio Ziliotto, appointed by the governor Carlos Verna, to continue his project.

Sliding

"If Alberto Paredes Urquiza (mayor of the capital of La Rioja) closes with us, we can win," they told Cambiemos. There, the candidate for the governorship will be Julio Martinez, national senator who beat in 2017 Carlos Menem to the national legislatures. Paredes Urquiza, Peronist, pretends to stay in the PJ or join the yellow electoral front. With the mayor inside, the chances of victory increase. Anyway, after the court decision, in La Rioja, it's all about mixing and giving again.

The mayor of Salta, Gustavo Sáenz, is also zigzagging. He crossed the PC and the front in renovation. Now, I could integrate Change. Like Paredes Urquiza, he disconcerts the inhabitants and the foreigners. To the Peronists and Macristas. If you play for the national government, the UCR-PRO alliance will be better profiled. Alfredo Olmedo seems to be firmer for the provincial fight of the PRO coasts. For the PC, and without the governor Juan Manuel Urtubey in the provincial court, there is no definite candidate. And, with the current voting system, there will be no problem: the president of Urtubey would vote on a ballot. To the blessing governor, by e-newsletter. The government of Salta will seek to unify the systems so that the potential candidacy of the governor spreads.

The details

In Santa Cruz, we may have more optimism. Change. Mainly because of the wear of Kirchnerism, currently represented by Governor Alicia Kirchner. Eduardo Costa, radical with tense ties with Cambiemos, marks for the fight, in which it is not known if the PJ will again apply the law on the slogan that allowed the sister of the former president to be governor in 2015 without being a candidate. more voted

Entre Ríos is also an atypical case. Peronism is united after the re-election of Gustavo Bordet. The candidate who will benefit from Casa Rosada's support, Atilio Benedetti, has one advantage: Entre Ríos is one of the provinces where Macri is the best. If they find that it will be "difficult" to win there, they do not exclude a shock.

Among the districts where we change is official, the greatest fear goes through Buenos Aires. The unification of dates with the national can condition the possibilities of Maria Eugenia Vidal.