Look at Brazil: it was the exemplary transition from Cardoso to Lula 16 years ago

Argentine democracy is now facing two routes and no shortcut: The first option is a traumatic and shameful change of government, like the one played by Cristina Kirchner and Mauricio Macri in 2015, which was the laughing stock of the world.

The second solution is to emulate the exemplary democratic transition agreement concluded by the Brazilian president. Fernando Henrique Cardoso and his successor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, in 2002, which defines itself as "the heir to one of the largest social debts of the world".

Despite its ideological differences, which have become more virulent since the "president of the workers" became a prisoner of corruption in 2018, the memory of this Brazilian transition can still serve as an example to Latin American democracies. Some time later, as president, Lula would congratulate Cardoso on the cooperation with his men, saying that "never put obstacles" or "scrambled information".

"I think that, unintentionally, Brazil has set the example for the world," Lula said. Cardoso, on the other hand, would say that he acted motivated by the belief that the institutions should be strengthened from the government's delivery to a party "fiercely opposed to the previous one but who seized power with the historic commitment to respect the Democratic Order and Republican Values. "

The agreement was a necessity

The world feared that Brazil would become a communist power and polls showed that Lula was the winner. On October 27, 2002, the former steelworker and leader of the Workers Party, won the presidential elections with 61.3% of the vote, becoming the most voted president of the history of Brazil, s & # 39; imposing 26 The 27 Brazilian states. José Serra, Cardoso's health minister (23.2%) and the candidates Garotinho and Gomes are missing.

The new government would replace a conservative leadership that had gradually plunged Brazil into an economic crisis, seriously undermining the electoral opportunities of the candidate for the succession chosen by his party, the PSDB. Cardoso's last concerns in the latter part of his term were the stability of the economy and the payment of the next installments of public, internal and external debt. Brazil, the tenth largest economy in the region, had poverty and inequality rates comparable to those of African countries.

After the devaluation of the realCardoso did not want to suffer a second humiliation and fall into the situation of neighboring Argentina, which was going through its worst economic crisis and had seen several presidents fall within a short period of time. The prospect of seeing the ninth world economy – in terms of production – and America's third in arrears or with the collapsed currency, worried the stock and financial operators who were relying on the vast Brazilian market for business.

"Brazil will not become Argentina"

In May 2002, only a few months before the elections, the total debt of the Brazilian state already exceeded 250,000 million dollars and continued to rise, fearing the favorite candidate, the populist Lula, strengthening the power of the left in the country. continent Before the alert triggered in the conservative sectors by a possible "Fidel Castro-Hugo Chávez-Lula da Silva alliance" and the warnings of a "domino effect" left in the region, Lula had to recognize that He was in fact in a relationship with these two leaders. as he had them "with other statesmen of the world", and that there was nothing to fear.

In August 2002, with the real devaluation of 30% since January, inflation of nearly 2% per month, rapid slowdown in the economy, public debt rating and investment risk of worse and worseCardoso has entered into a providential agreement with the US Treasury on a $ 30.4 billion loan to the IMF and authorization to spend an additional $ 10.1 billion in international reserves to defend the real against speculative attacks.

In September, the socialist candidate shook the international markets and aggravated the Brazilian financial storm by saying that "the Brazilian economy is fragile" but that "this country is not a republic like Argentina, he does not go bankrupt ". His statements even provoked the discontent of Fernando de la Rúa's government and shattered the real collapse and reached historic lows.

Lula denied in a newspaper interview O State of Sao Paulo As badysts and officials point out, rising survey results have sparked fear in the markets, accusing Cardoso of responsibility for economic fragility. "The government should not play with something so serious," he complains. "To say that Brazil could become an Argentina for the elections or that the stock market is down and the dollar goes up for elections it would be trying to provoke in the economy the same effect as the bomb that explodes in the neck of the person who poses it. "

The victory of the labor president

On October 28, the Brazilian market recorded a decline of 4.4%, registering a decrease of 29.49% during the year. The next day, the president-elect was received by Cardoso in the presidential palace to establish a coordination between the outgoing government and the technical transition team appointed by him, thus giving rise to a kind of co-government de facto in which the elected president fulfilled institutional functions. two months before the transfer of powers.

In the next two months, Cardoso and Lula worked side by side, leaving aside the ideological differences, for a change of peaceful government, for which they both received the prestigious Notre Dame Award 2003 for his excellence in the public service in Latin America. The award served to "honor the leadership shown by both men in the national elections that represent the first democratic transition between two presidents elected in Brazil since the early 1960s," said the university that delivers them.

When receiving the award, Lula said that "the transition, as it was done, was a kind of warning to the world," because many doubted Brazil's ability to exercise democracy. With the transition, Lula added, "Brazil is setting a good example in the world" by showing that two men can "be political opponents" while working for the same democratic project. Cardoso, meanwhile, said that they both served as "symbolic instruments of the Brazilian people".

"The president and all of us understood that this process was of interest to the whole nation. It was up to the state to impose a republican vision of the transition, "said a former Carodoso official, Pedro Parente, minister of the Civil House and coordinator of the transition from the government side. "We started working before we knew who could win the elections," he said.

A Brazilian "Pact of the Moncloa"

In November, Lula was able to gather more than 130 influential Brazilians among businessmen, politicians of all ideologies, businessmen, bankers and landowners with trade unionists and peasants to lay the foundations. of a social agreement similar to the pacts of La Moncloa, the priority would be to define the social and job creation policies and the basis of tax, labor and agrarian reforms, among others, which were then to be discussed at Parliament

In December, Lula traveled abroad to meet a large number of American leaders, including Eduardo Duhalde, Chilean Ricardo Lagos, Mexican Vicente Fox and American George Bush, and shared with Cardoso the importance of the Mercosur summit held in Brasilia on 5 December.

On January 1, 2003, Lula became the first president to receive the presidential gang of another democratically elected president since the 1961 transfer between Juscelino Kubitschek and Jânio Quadros. In his inaugural speech, Lula recalled his main election commitments and reaffirmed his concrete objective: "The mission of my life will be accomplished if, at the end of my mandate, each of the Brazilians can have breakfast, lunch and his dinner every day. "

What was the "damn legacy" that Cardoso left to Lula

In the following years, Lula was repeatedly heard about the "cursed inheritance" that he had received in financial terms, but never publicly criticized the transition process proposed by President Cardoso. His predecessor had left many issues unresolved, but was progressing in the consolidation of democracy and fiscal discipline, and maintaining it would be the biggest challenge of the first socialist president of Brazil.

♦ inflation. The devaluation of the real in 2002 has put pressure on controlled inflation since the first year of the Cardoso government and that ended 2002 with an alarm of more than 10% per year, which was not the case since 1995 .

♦ inequality. Cardoso has always criticized the profound inequality of wealth, but has not managed to change it.

♦ hunger. The basic slogan of the new government is to end hunger. The challenge is to do it without tax discipline in the air and without perpetuating badistance and retrograde measures.