Loser: Argentina overreacts to Fund orders

The economist concurred with the government's diagnosis that "the worst of the recession was over" and has been skeptical of opposition party demands for the need to renegotiate the economy. agreement with the Fund. "It's one thing to listen to the guitar and another thing is to play it," he said. Then, the dialogue that the professional had with Ambito Financiero.

JOURNALIST: How do you see the relations between the IMF and Argentina?

Claudio Loser: The fund has a lot of support. I think that with all the concerns that the Fund might have, there is an exaggerated response from Argentina to what the agency is asking for. I heard that the Fund was worried about inflation and new tax measures, saying that there should be new taxes. And I think it's more to say that in the context of the program, he's worried about inflation. He says inflation is not going well and we need to continue to work to reduce it.

Q: Do you think you are asking for more taxes to be raised?

C. L .: As far as tax policies are concerned, I interpret the answer that we are asking Argentina to do certain things that have been agreed before.

Q: For example, there was a question of eliminating certain VAT exemptions.

C.L .: It is very important. There is also a change in the possible rates for certain products. The experience we have, not only of Argentina but of the Fund, is that they give rise to a process of tax evasion. Cheats are made not to pay and ultimately they do not benefit consumers. When VAT rates are different, clbadification problems lead to fraud on the part of some people who claim to have sold foodstuffs when they do not.

P: There is also talk of eliminating Monotributo. There are 3.5 million monotributists and it does not seem that everyone is able to switch to the general regime …

C.L .: I think that under the monotributist regime, we can discuss certain things. Administratively, it is very easy to manage, but you have to see the amounts from which it is entered.

Q: Do you think there may be something new for Argentina at the IMF spring meeting?

C.L .: I think the discussion on Argentina took place last week. Argentina can certainly be one of the topics of discussion because it is one of the countries that has a program that is in a difficult situation. I do not think there is any profound change in the impact on the situation in Argentina at the next meeting.

Q: Where is the focus of the discussions?

C.L .: I think the important discussion for Argentina has already taken place. There are other problems related to the slowdown of the European economy, China's problems, the problems of poverty in Africa and the fiscal management of the United States. I think the meeting will be much more focused on that. Medium-sized countries like Argentina do not think they have much to do with this discussion. It hurts me to say it.

Q: How do you see the idea that the IMF allows Argentina to sell dollars at auction?

C.L .: It depends a lot on the Central Bank. In this regard, I believe that the IMF, rather than impose, has supported the BCRA's dollar policies. If the BCRA has such margins to intervene, it would be reasonable to use them in a non-mbadive way, but to intervene to avoid the daily fluctuations of the dollar.

Q: This year, IMF disbursements are ending. How do you think the relationship will continue?

C.L .: The IMF program ends in 2020. It lasts two years. If the authorities want to follow it, it will be at the end of next year. The question of payments is as follows: the loans of the Fund are for a period of 5 years and they must begin to be repaid during the third year. In other words, the funds that Argentina withdrew should start repaying them in 2021. It is true that the new government must define its parameters, but it is not the fund that will ask for immediately money. The interest rate is very low. Of course, there may be other conditions that make it expensive.

P: According to the opposition, the program does not work, it must be renegotiated.

C.L .: Well, it's always possible. We should see what elements the opposition would bring. One thing is to listen to the guitar and another is to play the guitar. Opposition can be scary when she sees what is going on. This is something I have often experienced, even in the case of Argentina.

Q: How do you see the Argentine economy? Will there be a recovery this year?

C. L .: Of the limited possibilities that economists have for predicting the future, I think that the lowest part has been reached and that he must now come out of this recession. It will be a long process. My impression is that the worst moments are over. The public perception is that things are so bad, that's natural. But I think that in both the theme of inflation as in the activity, there will be a major recovery, unless there is an international collapse, which, in my opinion, will not happen .

Interview with Carlos Lamiral