Lula back in the ring

For the first time since his prison, in April 2016, Lula da Silva made a long statement, almost an hour and a half, showing that he was in great shape: he touched on a wide range of topics and aspects of the tragedy experienced in Brazil. , focusing on certain initiatives by far-right President Jair Bolsonaro and, in particular, linked to the pandemic which has decimated at least 270,000 lives and continues to increase, with today an average of two thousand deaths per day.

At the same time, he recalled the achievements of his two presidential terms and, a clear sign that by recovering his political rights, he has also regained his combat space, he sent signals on what will be his steps from now on. He did not declare himself a candidate in 2022, but he acted as if he was.

Lula’s harsh criticism of Bolsonaro’s erratic, irresponsible and genocidal behavior had an immediate effect: a few hours later and after 36 official events in which he flaunted not wearing a mask, the president appeared wearing the protector. . And more: he praised vaccines, although he absurdly delayed their acquisition.

Lula’s speech revolved around four main axes: the shattered economy, unemployment, the pandemic and the very heavy distribution of weapons led by Bolsonaro.

“People don’t want guns, they want jobs,” “people don’t want guns, they want vaccines” were phrases scattered throughout Lula’s statement, and they also had an immediate effect on the presidential clan. A few hours later, Senator Flavio, Bolsonaro’s eldest son, sent a message to his supporters via social media: “Our weapon is the vaccine.” Until less than 24 hours ago, he, like Father President, despised vaccination.

If Lula’s harsh speech, as well as his desire to go quickly to the front line, have created such confusion in the presidential clan, on the verge of provoking a radical and unexpected turnaround, in the political milieu, there are unknowns on how the right and the right will react. the center-right. Already the left and the center-left are starting to move towards a broad front which, from what we understand from Lula’s words, will seek to co-opt the sectors of activity and also the conservatives, not to confused with reactionaries, willing to dialogue.

In addition to the right-wing parties, another sector that reacted badly to Lula’s return to the ring was the Armed Forces. Several senior officials, some at the top of the race, agreed to speak to reporters on condition of anonymity, a way of sending a stern alert to the former president. Despite the fact that Lula reminded them that under his two terms the Armed Forces were largely favored, it was once again clear that active uniformed men – better not to mention retirees – harbor a visceral hatred for him. PT. It was following what the then president, Dilma Rousseff, did to create the Truth Commission, which is considered by the army as a “purely revenge measure”.

At least in this first moment, and there are indications that both Lula and the top leaders of the PT foresaw, a polarization has developed between Bolsonaro and the former president.

Lula’s incisive speech was met with a series of inaccuracies that were difficult to understand as a response from the current president. While one was punctual and objective in its denunciations, the other resembled a drifting ship in its responses to defend itself.

All of this is happening amid the tragic escalation of the pandemic. Overnight it was learned that in the previous 24 hours the death toll had exceeded two thousand. Given the large volume of under-notifications, some specialists claim that in reality it may have been more than triple.

There is a widespread collapse in hospitals almost everywhere in the country and the active general at the head of the Ministry of Health is spinning aimlessly, as if he is drunk in the middle of a shooting.

And also at night, rumors arose related to what the high command of the armed forces, in particular the army, was plotting, in the face of the increasingly palpable erosion of their image in public opinion, thanks to their identification with a genocidal government.

The most intense rumor indicates the will of the military to follow the bad regime of the ultra-right, to sponsor a kind of catapult to root him out and to promote the vice-president, the very reactionary retired General Hamilton Mourão, to his presidency. Which, in turn, would establish a “government of notables”, replacing the pile of nullities and pathetic and aberrant current numbers, one number of which would leap, in 2022, to challenge the presidency with Lula.

There is no indication that this will happen in the short or medium term. But everything points to the explosive effect of Lula’s return to the ring.