Lula greatly surpasses Bolsonaro | Opinion

From Rio de Janeiro

In the most comprehensive investigation of the issues, Lula outshines Bolsonaro. At the same time, the survey carried out by the company XP / Ipespe indicates the reasons for the change. When Lula regained his political rights -Although he always reaffirms that he is not a candidate, that he will only deal with the issues of 2022 in 2022- his name immediately became part of the polls. In everything Lula overcomes Jair Bolsonaro. This allows a broader panorama of the Brazilian political situation.

In the assessment of the Bolsonaro government, the trend is clearly unfavorable. In 2021 alone, the government lost eight points, with the evaluation of bad and terrible, it goes from 40 to 48%, while the optimal and good qualification goes from 32 to 27%. Regarding the way Bolsonaro governs, disapproval has increased from 50 to 60%, while approval has increased from 40 to 33%.

Regarding the course of the Brazilian economy, the idea that it is on the wrong track drops from 50 to 65%, while the view that it is on the right track drops from 39 to 23%.

Regarding the impact of the coronavirus, those who are very afraid have gone from 39 to 55%. Those who are a little scared fell from 36% to 28%, while those who are not afraid went from 24% to 17%.

It is therefore not strange that the electoral scenario is unfavorable to Bolsonaro, even more from the moment Lula fully returned to political life. In the first round, Lula goes from 25 to 29%, while Bolsonaro goes from 27 to 28%. Everyone else is far away, 9% or less.

In the second round, Lula goes from 40 to 42%, while Bolsonaro goes from 40 to 38%. Asked about a possible tie between Lula and Sergio Moro, the leader of the PT would win by 41 to 36%.

The polls are pictures of a certain time, but the most important is the projected future trends. Lula is clearly on the uptrend and Bolsonaro is on the stagnant trend. In surveys where rejection levels are measured, Lula has less rejection, with a tendency to decrease. Bolsonaro, on the contrary, has a high rejection level, prone to the rise.

Elections are scheduled for October 2022. The polarization between Lula and Bolsonaro will hardly fail to prevail in the electoral dispute. The other candidates – starting with Ciro Gomes – decrease their voting intention. Psol discusses the possibility of supporting Lula from the first round. Other parties are also considering this possibility.

Lula has more legal hurdles than political ones to become the new president of Brazil. The plenary session of the Supreme Federal Court has yet to judge, once again, the lack of impartiality of Judge Sergio Moro and the full recovery of Lula’s rights. The political conditions are already largely favorable to Lula.