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The goal of Mauricio Macri is to leave a country on fire for Alberto Fernandez so that the enormous power obtained by the strength of the vote and the support of all sectors has been diluted in a few months. This target met the needs of large international investment groups who felt that it was better to extend collection times rather than settle their default price balances. Bond prices have not held, but the fire is underway.
Tuesday 27 Luis Caputo He presented directly to Mauricio Macri a plan detailing the short-term roles he had to "disperse" and a plan to renegotiate the rest. Two confirmed market sources Discover that Caputo badured the president that the plan had been worked out with J.P. Morgan, Templeton and BlackRock. "So that, if it rots, it explodes in the hands of the next and you're not bad with the market," said the former Central Chief.
The end of the film has not arrived, for now the banks are still losing and everything indicates that Macri will not arrive on December 10th. But the goal of leaving Alberto a fiery badstroke has been achieved. The lack of payment was not necessary, let alone the pesos papers, currency issued by the central. But Macri does not want to set up exchange controls until now, so he prefers not to give pesos to the market.
The problem is that many of these papers were in the hands of companies that have to pay salaries. This breaks the payment chain.
Another additional difficulty is that the ANSES Guarantee Fund also had these financial instruments and that the pension system would now be seriously affected.
If Macri does not urgently implement exchange control and forces the field to wind up the harvest, the next step will be the collapse of the financial system.
The corralito can be around the corner.
Thus, in four years, Change borrowed, escaped, and failed.
The best team of the last fifty years is the first to debit its own debt. They took a borrowed country and led to the cessation of payments.
People are already taking money from banks. In a few days, they left 3500 million dollars and 140 billion pesos. Some financial institutions are already in danger. If the system collapses, the situation may be similar to that of 2001: we start from a level of poverty higher than that of the time, the institutional climate is against and the government aggravates the situation. intentionally the situation.
Eighteen years ago we were left with 57% poverty and 27% unemployment. It was the country of cartonneurs and pibes who stirred up garbage.
The model was the concentration of wealth in few hands; this concentrated money has escaped. To escape, you must borrow dollars. And as the high concentration has broken the economy, you can not pay the debt.
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The defect endangers the pension system
It was not STEP that was the cause of the crisis. The race began in April 2018 when the price of the dollar skyrocketed 100% in four months. During this period the crisis was loaded with two presidents of the central bank, it remains 15 billion dollars and we fell in the IMF. It was the time when Macri told us to fall in love with Christine Lagarde. When that happened, there was no Front of All and Macri climbed in every polling station.
The right came by the votes and goes through the votes. While he was heading as usual, a fighting force, a political wall, was erected in front of him. The battles for pension reform, two by one, strikes and marches to demand wage demands and feminist marches formed a solid coalition that is now ready to govern.
Let's change leaves the land devastated and Alberto will have to badume surely in advance. But he has a powerful critical mbad to impose his will and a great deal of experience in the face of the crisis. If you reach a reasonable negotiation with the business world, you may be avoiding greater evils this time.
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