Macri, between the ordeal of inflation and the promises of reactivation

Inflation is the most persistent ordeal of the management of

Mauricio Macri.

The phenomenon that scares society, investors and their own allies. A phenomenon that also calls into question the effectiveness of its own economic team. The real time bomb that left Cristina Kirchner and macrismo managed with more optimism than realism. The economy is experiencing one of those rare times when many prices are rising because, despite the fact that sellers know they will not sell anything. At the same time, the notion of relative prices seems to have disappeared. The same product can cost 15 or 20% less or more in similar sales centers. These inflationary surprises (no one thought, let alone the economic leaders), added to the last difficulties of the recession, explain very bad investigations for the government, which could reach the official offices in the coming days.

The problem
this is no longer the inflation of March (4.7% devastating), but that of April, which is also announced very high. In April, there will be fuel, gasoline and transportation increases, the most recent perhaps this year. But even in this case, they will condition the inflation of the whole month. The fundamental dilemma of the president remains the same: either he does what he has to do, or he devotes himself to victory. The two things could be incompatible in a social scenario in which Macri would have lost a large part of the middle clbad and the lower middle clbad. These are the social sectors that are not subsidized, suffocated by the tax burden and have fixed incomes or that, in the case of those who work for their own account, have lost a significant part of their income. An economic measure indicates that over the past month, the largest decline in the last 12 years of sales of appliances and clothing was recorded. Although the recession hit bottom last December, according to almost unanimous opinion of serious economists, the reactivation indicators resemble those of an intensive care patient. Improvement, but his status remains reserved and serious.

The announcements that the president will make today could improve the price situation in the coming months, but the problem is unresolved: Macri does not believe in this type of measures. It is a concession to his radical allies and the Civic Coalition and to the desperation of his main electoral adviser, Jaime Durán Barba. Obviously, the announcements have been negotiated with the International Monetary Fund. It is impossible to badume that economic decisions will be taken, in the current state of the Argentine economy, without consulting the Fund authorities beforehand. It is therefore likely that the Fund has refused some authorization for a price agreement, although this is a solution it deserves. Like Macri.

Several economists say that the inflation test will end in June, but that the price rise will not fall to zero. It will go to monthly rates of 2% or a little less than 2, but not much more. According to these economists, it is possible that starting in June as well, a more sustained reactivation of the economy will begin to emerge. Orlando Ferreres has changed its economic growth forecast for the last quarter of the year (only the two crucial elections, the first round and the runoff). According to Ferreres, this country will grow by 6% (4%) compared to the same quarter in 2018. In the last quarter of last year, the drop in GDP was 6%. "Real growth will then be 12%," says Ferreres. Ferreres' economic forecasts are being realized, but political factors could affect the economy.

An invisible candidate

The first thing to note about these political factors is that it is surprising that a large part of political and economic leaders think, with today's poll data, that Cristina Kirchner is able to win the elections presidential. She has not yet said whether she will be a candidate, although everyone badumes it. She also did not disclose her government program, in case of access to power, nor did she specify who would be part of her cabinet. He did not say anything. He does not speak, as he always does in an era prior to his election decisions. It's a non-candidate, invisible and silent. But she grows up in polls (or keeps her third place) and Macri goes down. It's social anger. A picture of the company as it is today. Nothing indicates, and there are experiments in the world that prove it, that the photo of today ends up being the film that we will see in October and November.

There is, on the other hand, the political and economic risk of the compulsory primary of the month of August. According to the data available today, Macri and Cristina will participate in these elections without competitors, but only in their respective spaces. Voting for them will be an act of faith or personal solidarity. Until now, Cristina has followers willing to do these things. The followers of Macri are more austere in their effusions. So what would happen to the economy if Cristina beat Macri for a few points during the August primaries, which might not anticipate anything in October and even less with the eventual November ballot? What would the dollar be and the price reformulated? What information will be used to tell the Wall Street brokers that the best part of the elections will still be missing? Which could be useful to consolidate the vote in Macri in October, if all antikirchnerism was united around him, because the economy would have a very bad effect. The government must make a great communication effort to encourage its supporters to vote in August. If the Macri economy were disrupted between August and October, all forecasts could change.

Macri must also deal with factual powers that have one foot in him and another foot in Peronism, including Cristina. Businessmen seem to see a strange sight. Maybe the cause of the notebooks bothered them, which involved a significant part of the cream of the business men. The president said he solved this problem. Can I do something else? No. Perhaps other businessmen, not just boys and girls, are wary of the president's policy of openness in economic matters. They have formed in a closed and protected economy and fear competition with the world. It is incoherent to imagine Argentina as an exporting power, according to Macri's proposal, while maintaining the closure of the economy. The world is not naive. Buy and sell.

The only incentive left for Macri is that he controls the state. All oficialismos have won until now in the provincial elections. Even in Santa Fe, the latest polls give the former socialist governor Antonio Bonfatti the victory over Peronist Omar Perotti. It is likely that Perotti made the political mistake of forming an alliance with Christian Agustín Rossi in a very anti-Kirchner province. But the excellent structure of socialism in power in Santa Fe and the prestige of Bonfatti should not be underestimated.

Provincial and national elections are and will be austere. The businessmen decided to help the candidates little and nothing after they had to repent before a judge for having already done so. They also repented of worse things. In this context, Macri will have resources that will be lacking to its competitors. Of course, inflation has ceased to be a social suffering and a constant political shock.