Macri does not want to pour naphtha on the fire

There is a company whose behavior may reveal much of the government's direction in the coming months. C & # 39;


YPF
. The


Oil
was a topic of conversation in recent days for several reasons. Most noticeable, the way the value of his share has plummeted, which went from something more than 27 dollars in January to 13.90 after the dismissal of


Juan José Aranguren
from the government. This replacement at the Ministry of Energy, which


Macri
justified in front of his ex-minister in an express request of the political wing of Cambiemos, infused at the time of disruption of the market: Argentina could she come back on a path that qu & # 39; She seemed to have abandoned with Kirchnerism the policy of administered prices? It is true that these uncertainties did not start with the departure of Aranguren, but before, in April, with the last exchange, when the Ministry of Energy decided to summon the oil companies to mitigate, through a sectoral agreement, as in the past, part of the transfer of devaluation to suppliers.
The market is not forgiving: the effects of these decisions, which consisted essentially in postponing the increases until the situation calmed down, have been seen in recent days with a slight but incipient shortage of certain fuels yesterday this newspaper.
a note from Pablo Fernández Blanco. "In some parts of the country there are quotas for the wholesale sale of diesel: the agro knows that it will increase and store," said yesterday in a petrol.

A song that this industry has heard several times with almost every government and always dance the same way: at a bad price, nobody should sell. To avoid this, the government has decided to cancel the agreements and face a personalized dialogue with the oil companies. "Responsible Prices" is the slogan with which officials usually receive executives from the industry. So, suppliers are selling today


naphtha
and diesel calculated at $ 65 a barrel, which ended yesterday in London at 76.79. This shift is the reason for the current restriction: when the economy does not adjust to price, it does so in volume. For now the problem is YPF, which has chosen to reduce the increases despite the discomfort of the rest of the sector. Saturday's announcement between 5 and 8%, while Shell, who chose the least progressive route, applied from Tuesday between 9 and 12%. The result is also known: by offering the cheapest price, the state oil company will receive the flow of demand left by its competitor. Once again Shell. Guillermo Moreno is no longer there

Devaluation upsets everything. Before the exchange,


Argentine fuels
were the most expensive dollars behind Uruguay in Latin America; now they are among the lowest in the region.

The government badumes that there is a transient imbalance. JvieIguacel, the new energy minister, insisted yesterday on a conversation with Radio Miter that prices were free. The description shows more of what's going to happen than what's really happening: once the dollar has stabilized, something that optimists have started to enjoy this week, it will no longer be necessary to ask for accountability from an oil company. . they were neither Sergio Mbada, nor Kirchner, nor the radicals: the crisis threatens to take the blueprint of the model. Thanks to energy policy, Macri has come not only by reducing subsidies and public spending, but by receiving the only genuine private investment. In the gas market, where similar inconsistencies may occur, there is a somewhat more encouraging feature: thanks to the investments made in Vaca Muerta, the supply is 4 to 7% larger than the year last. The Ministry of Energy intends to capitalize this benefit since September with a universal instrument that has worked successfully in the 1990s: it will open bids for purchases that Cammesa, the wholesale market administrator of the 39, electricity and distributors make the wellhead. 19659009] Casa Rosada hopes that this virtual deregulation – the market is functioning today through a maximum price agreement between industry agents – encourages competition and lowers the prices of the entire system. Iguacel will thus avoid the trap that took its predecessor: the transfer of the devaluation and the completion of the agreement required for the October rises of the order of 80% of residential tariffs in October.

The minister dreams of this Argentina, a country based on its natural resources, based mainly on what produces Vaca Muerta. The gas is; it must be extracted. By January, 15% of the country's production will be provided solely by Tecpetrol, a Techint Group company, which has opted the most in this area. This proposal, which is that oil companies are competing again by volume, not by price, and that a modern frondizista might call "the gas battle," seems so ambitious that it transcends the market. Macri administration.

This is good news for any statesman, but a dilemma during an election period. How many deserts will we have to go through until we reach this oasis?

The task of Iguacel is not simple. Not only must prove to investors that nothing has changed, but to the own troupe, especially at UCR, the main stumbling block that has had the direction of Aranguren, which There will be no less injuries than is supposed. Radical ideology is relevant not only because it is an important partner of Change, but because it is quite similar to the cosmovision of the middle clbad: in general, they are the creators of a capitalism without profitability and with an attenuated property. Let us not forget that the clashes between Aranguren and Cornejo, president of the UCR, began in January for the state actions that the former minister had the intention to sell At Transener, the electric carrier

C was "not to be too coordinated". And that maybe he was betrayed by his training in the private sector: he thought that he would only have to report to his virtual CEO, who was Macri. This vertical exercise of power does not always work in politics.

Surprises that the state reserves to those who arrive with an exogenous logic. Miguel Gutiérrez, president of YPF, generally says that he works for a rational administration that brings benefits to shareholders without causing fires to the government. From this alchemy, squaring the circle for a 100% oil head depends on Macri's reelection.