Macri floats on the economic disaster of Argentina

An economy in the trash is usually a death sentence for a president who wants to be re-elected. However, until now, Mauricio Macri, On the occasion of winning again in October. His electoral resistance contradicts the maxim "It's the economy, stupid" and shows that other problems can capture and captivate the imagination of voters. More importantly, it shows the changes in Argentina that his opponents have not been able to adapt.

In Argentina, 2018 was a year of oblivion. The value of the peso has fallen by half, inflation has reached its highest level since the early 1990s and a nascent recovery has sunk into recession. The government had to negotiate not one but two rescue plans from the International Monetary Fund, for a total amount of 57,000 million dollars.

Most think that the economy is at a low ebb. The next harvest seems more promising, last year 's drought has disappeared. Argentine exports benefit from the strengthening of the Brazilian currency and the economic recovery of the neighboring country. And energy is booming: the Vaca Muerta oil fields are richer and more productive than expected.

However, even in the most optimistic scenarios, rare are those who expect more than a modest economic growth when the Argentinians go to the polls. Even in this case, with the exception of another financial crisis, Macri's re-election opportunities will not be greatly affected.

One of the reasons is that voters are more important than their pockets. As other politicians in the region have recently learned, security is one of the main concerns of voters: in a recent poll conducted by D & # 39; Alessio IROL-Berensztein, six Argentines l & rsquo; Considered an important issue.

Another reason is the social changes that have left large groups of voters adrift. The members of the once-ubiquitous Argentine trade unions are now a privileged clbad: in 1990, two out of three workers were union members; for 2008, only half was. Informal workers now account for almost half of the labor force, and the persistent persistence of poverty since the 2001 economic crisis has left an entire generation and a quarter of Argentinean on the sidelines.

The formerly dominant Peronist party did not adapt. He is surely facing a crisis of leadership. Former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, with all her corruption scandals and populist past, is by far the most favored party candidate in the polls. Their continued strength has prevented meeting around an alternative.

But the party's poor performance reflects deeper institutional challenges. Like the Institutional Revolutionary Party of Mexico – a long time in government and recently dismissed – the Peronists find themselves stuck in patronage and corporatist structures outdated and less representative. Although their control over their historical union base is intact, new movements and social organizations are less faithful.

Rural aid has disintegrated as young people settle in cities., and years of punishment for export taxes have enraged their loyal agricultural allies. Although the party continues to control much of the provincial governments and legislatures, its cohesion has disappeared. The presidential elections of 2015 and the mid-term elections of 2017 testify to this uprooting: the party lost its stronghold in the province of Buenos Aires, as well as seats in Congress.

Macri exploits these vulnerabilities. He and the media have kept alive the Kirchner administration's "libreta" scandals, an absorbing epic of more than a decade of clandestine meetings and pockets of money exchanging hands between business leaders, members of the cabinet and, presumably, Kirchner herself. Meticulously recorded in spiral notebooks by a trusted driver. In areas such as security, Macri has benefited from her popular security minister (and vice-presidential candidate), Patricia Bullrich, with whom he planned joint appearances, such as the recent announcement of a decree concerning the seizure of badets.

Your campaign benefits from clever and targeted management of social networks, as well as personal contact: the Cambiemos coalition website has registered hundreds of thousands of volunteers. The government has not refused to create its own patronage networks, developing civil society organizations with generous funding from the Department of Social Development.

Macri could easily lose his current advantage. Another financial crisis would sink him. The opposition could come together around a candidate. But the biggest risk is the base of his political coalition. A debate is already being formed on the extent of the network. The governors of Buenos Aires and the surrounding province want a broad umbrella encompbading the opposition: they consider that, despite the failures suffered by Peronism, the local mechanisms of the party can still produce votes. Other members of Casa Rosada believe that these alliances betray the promises of change in the coalition and tarnish Macri's reputation for doing things differently.

The next administration will have a hard way to go. The rescuer of the IMF came with unpopular commitmentsTo eliminate the deficit, it will be necessary to reform pensions, eliminate government jobs and reduce spending in general. In addition, the financial stability network will not be available, as the government owes a hefty sum of 57,000 million US dollars to the IMF and billions to private investors.

At this point, Macri seems to be the person who will face these challenges. However, it will also face more fundamental changes: Argentina's limited competitiveness, the aging of the country's population and broader economic trends that are relegating commodity producers to the margins of value chains. world. Re-election can be easier than adapting Argentina to the future that awaits you.