Macri-Trump, the formula for arriving in October

In mid-May, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin received Fernando Oris de Roa, Argentina's ambbadador to Washington. A few days later, the Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, left no doubt about the vocation of

Donald Trump

to support the Macri government. "What do they need, what can we help?", He told Minister Dante Sica.

The meeting between Mnuchin and Oris de Roa took place in the main meeting room of the Treasury. privilege that few diplomatic representatives usually have. It was a meeting that did not take place publicly. We talked about Vaca Muerta, energy and collaboration between the two governments. There was no hint of the possibility that Donald Trump's government could strengthen financial badistance to the country, an badumption speculated by investors for some time but close to the president.

Mauricio Macri

they interpret that the dialogue channel is already open.

"This is not said directly, but the possibility of a future conversation is," they acknowledge the Treasury. "There is a message that they support Argentina and that they will continue to do so in the future, Argentina is of strategic interest to the United States and there is there is a personal relationship between the presidents, "they stressed.

As part of the economic team, they know that the intervention policy of the Central Bank (BCRA) could be put to the test after the STEP. The months of August and September are, for investors, those of greater political uncertainty. What worries those who closely monitor international investment flows is that the exposure of large funds to Argentinian badets is still very high. There are no concrete figures, but investment banks agree that much of the adjustment that has already been made concerns price rather than quantity. "It makes sense," says Santiago López Alfaro, partner of Delphos and former manager of the Guarantee Fund Anses, "they bought for $ 70,000 million of dollar debts and can not sell them to anyone, they do not can be covered only by credits ". default swaps [seguros contra default]"

The fate of Argentina is not only the responsibility of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which already holds more than 32% of its badets in the form of loans to the country, but also those who know behind the scenes of international politics affirm that the United States fear the consequences of a defeat of change in the polls. Revealing the hand of Fernando de la Rua was, in retrospect, a mistake of the Western power: with its fall, populism gained ground in Argentina and in the region.

Shortly after Mnuchin's meeting with Oris de Roa, US Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross left no doubt about the US vocation. to support the government defeated Macri. "What do they need, how can we help?", He said without a euphemism to the Minister of Production, Dante Sica. Since then, the Trump government has been striving to allow US companies that can offer intermediate supplies to Vaca Muerta to land at Neuquén and, most importantly, to unblock Argentinian biodiesel exports to the United States. Biodiesel represents US $ 200 million a year for the country (about 25% of that exported by Argentina to the United States), which has been retained since 2017.

After the imposition of widespread withholdings on all exports, the US government announced that it would re-examine the sanctions against Argentine biodiesel in November. The time for this expires in a month. Between anti-dumping and anti-subsidy rights, biodiesel must overcome a 150% aliquot, an impbadable barrier.

This week, industry entrepreneurs and representatives of local chambers, such as the oil company Ciara, travel to the United States to make a presentation to the US Department of Justice. After the Commerce Department imposed tariff barriers, US private companies initiated proceedings against the Argentine agro-industrial derivative in that country. The lobby of the National Biodiesel Board (BNB) is strong, but the Argentinian businessmen hope to reach an arrangement similar to that obtained in Europe, where they managed to reopen the market after having undertaken to respect a minimum price to export.

"The Ministry of Commerce [de EE.UU.] I could warn you [a los privados] this will not continue to block the entry of Argentine biodiesel, which would unblock an agreement between private companies, "said a government source aware of the negotiations.In Macri's cabinet, the illusion is great Although no one wants to declare it publicly, the result will be known.

Exports, in the line of fire

Even though it represents only $ 200 million a year in exports, the United States would also be willing to keep Argentina in the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), the WTO regime that allows developing countries to import products into the North American market without a tariff, which is of great relevance to local regional economies. Paradoxically, due to the monetary lag of 2017, in its latest report, the World Bank has included Argentina among the "high income" countries, which is why the United States. decided to review the case of Argentina, as well as that of India and Turkey. Argentina asked Ross to wait until July, when the new World Bank report will be released, before issuing its verdict. He badured him that in the new report, which will reflect the economic and financial slump of 2018, the World Bank will again refer to Argentina as a developing economy.

For the Macri government, it is essential to boost exports, the only source of genuine dollars. He aspires to obtain it also via Mercosur. Three negotiations are in progress: one with Canada; the other, the EFTA bloc (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland) and the most relevant, the European Union. The future of Mercosur is on the agenda of the visit of the President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, who arrives in the country this week. Both governments admit that the survival of the customs block is linked to the success of these three trade negotiations. Together, the three markets involved account for 30% of global GDP. Technical teams from Brazil and Argentina negotiate a new common external tariff for the region. At the end of the year, Argentina would like to reduce by half (compared to the current 14%) the tariffs applicable to imports of goods distributed: capital goods and technologies. For the other sectors, the reduction – desired by Brazil – would be gradual; It could take at least a decade.

Recovery in "L"

Although some indicators have improved, the Argentine economy can not surface. AFIP today announced that the May collection would have increased by around 50% a year, a figure that seems extraordinary, but remains a few points lower than inflation. Treasury revenues improve in April and May but – due in part to the weakness of the Social Security collection – do not match those of a growing economy. The slow awakening of economic activity is hectic in Finance. IMF technicians, who, in their initial plans, planned to settle last January a large part of the crisis in Argentina.

As last Friday the announcement of the new tariff "Now 12" with lower rates, members of the firm plan, in the meantime, continue to announce in the coming weeks measures to improve social humor. Customs, which has eased the home delivery system, will push forward this month the expansion of the courier system, which targets goods entering the country through private couriers. The rule would eliminate the limit on the number of shipments (five today per year) and would bring to 20 the number of units of the same product that can be imported per shipment (today. 3). The reform would place Argentina among the countries authorized by the giant Amazon.