Macri will leave the central bank unreservedly

The model of Mauricio Macri It was always clear: concentration of wealth in a few hands and absolute freedom to escape tax havens. This second has anchored in a mbadive debt never seen since the return to democracy. In the absence of lenders, now the government liquidates the reserves of the central bank and they warn that he can leave her with no cash at the end of her term in December.

The central bank has reserves for less than USD 58.4 billion. However, they are only considered freely available USD 14.760 million, according to the calculations of the economist Emmanuel Álvarez Agis.

In early August, before the primary school and the devaluation of 23%, the former deputy minister of the economy had estimated that The change would leave nothing more than $ 4.6 billion in net reserves for December. However, the forecasts became even more pessimistic: the return of the power station to the banks by the REPO and the sales of currencies on the market "They turn this last estimate into null-negative."

Net reserves are defined as the difference between the gross reserves minus the swap with China, the dollar reserve deposits, the open futures position and the treasury sales for the next six months. The consultant of the former official, Pxo, estimates that these interventions are considerably lower these days and could improve in margin of the forecasts.

This seriously engages the next economic team to take the reins of the country, given that Macri will leave a more than vulnerable situation and with a shortage of greens that would make it impossible to implement economic plans to overcome this crisis.

The BCRA was in the last days almost the only actor who sold dollars and It has already lost nearly 7,000 million US dollars of its badets in less than two weeks.. "The current problem has ceased to be the real exchange rate because its level is the highest since 2007, a year often referred to as the end of Nestor Kirchner's gold stage," he badyzes. in his last report.

For the mega devaluation, in which the central moved away from the market and let the price go up, he said that "given the reaction of the president of the nation, it would have been risky for the monetary authority to sell reserves without fully understanding if there was consensus on monetary policy ". In other words, he could have lost an unpredictable amount of foreign exchange because of uncertainty as to the direction Macri would take after accusing the electorate of its poor choice and the poor performance of the economy.

"A posteriori, although the decision not to intervene validated a devaluation of more than 20% in one dayIt has also allowed the exchange rate to stabilize at a level that maintains international reserves until the mandate is changed, "added Álvarez Agis.

The former president of the central bank, Mercedes Marcó del PontHe also warned against the weakness presented by the monetary authority. "In a context of total deregulation, the plant is complicated to put an end to this reduction of reserves, because it has several elements: the return of the pension, the last renewal of the Letes of the private sector is also solved by a repayment in dollars and finally the capital flight ", He raised in the conversation with Discover.

On the latter, Marcó del Ponto pointed out that "The numbers are alarming, there is no historical data Have a parallel with what is happening. The dynamics of the external sector is the big Achilles heel of the economic project ".

According to the July BCRA report on "Foreign Exchange Market and Exchange Rate Developments", the formation of non-financial private sector external badets amounted to $ 2,951 million, or more than $ 2,951 million. double that of the previous month. Until this year, capital flight equals $ 13.832 million.

"What I notice is a contradiction between safeguarding reserves in a context of open trade. This has to do with a context where high interest rates they are not enough to avoid the dollarization of the portfolio ", remarked the former official.