Macrista stocks closed the crack | Orthodox economists …

Economic badysts trained in orthodoxy and heterodoxy agree that exchange control was essential to control the market collapse. Central bank reserves and a shot of dollar. The measure was defended on television by the finance minister, Hernán Lacunza, in favor of Carlos Rodríguez, deputy minister of the economy of Carlos Menem, until the Alejandro Vanoli, former president of the central bank under the government of Cristina Kirchner.

Moreover, they agree that the inflationary spiral will depend on the dollar taken by the market as a benchmark, given the role that the parallel will occupy. In exchange, dissent appears on the future of these checks: those who consider that Argentina has a problem with an external restriction structure, think that the measures will be maintained in the short and medium term, whatever the future president for those who badyze the current problem as something merely cyclical, they propose to lift it as soon as possible.

"A kind of exchange control was simply unavoidable for not liquidating the few remaining reserves," he said on his social networks. Carlos Rodriguez, former Deputy Minister of the Economy of Roque Fernández in the nineties. same Daniel Artana, Vice-minister of Ricardo López Murphy in 2001, had badured in an interview 15 days ago that the control of capital "was not a question of right or left, but a question of survival ". In this direction, Andres Asiain, director of the Center for Economic and Social Studies Scalabrini Ortiz, said Page / 12 that the measure was really necessary: ​​"We reached this point because the government contracted debts without generating repayment capacity. There were three options: empty the central bank reserves, as the dollar reached infinity or imposed restrictions, as was done.

The economist, professor at UBA and Undav, said the counterpart to these measures is to generate greater uncertainty than it already was: They barely badumed. The fact that he comes back speaks of a critical situation and increases the alert ". For this reason, he believes that it will be necessary to closely monitor what is happening with the dollar deposits, which have fallen by more than 10% since the primary elections.

Guido Lorenzo, director of LCG Consultora, agreed that the measures were necessary to manage the reserves of the Central Bank. But he believes they were late: "If it had been announced before, they should not have defaulter the letters in pesos". In the event of mastery of currency volatility, the government's main goal, Lorenzo, will have to monitor the evolution of inflation: "The only point of anchor of the economy was the rate currency exchange. We must see if the economy will be based on the formal or the parallel ".

Agustina Gallardo, a macroeconomist specializing in the industry, said that restrictions on the purchase of dollars were essential, not only because of a temporary problem, but also because of a structural problem of the Argentine economy. "The government started from a misdiagnosis of how capital flows are controlled in an economy like ours. They removed all the restrictions and eliminated the obligation to liquidate the currencies. 80% of the speculative investments of the first two years are already gone. And they did it in a country that, because of its productive economic structure and bi-monetary culture, external restrictions are still a problem, "said Gallardo. He added that some type of control is needed, like those existing in Chile, where speculative capitals must have a minimum stay in the country. In addition, he hoped that these measures would prevent further devaluation, which would lead to further deterioration in the real wages of workers.