Maduro plays to the wear of Guaidó in full crisis in Venezuela

In its attempt to stay in power, as Venezuela collapses, the president Nicolás Maduro He used a strategy that worked for him in the past: wait until his opponents are tired.

That's what he did in 2014, when the opposition blocked the street in an attempt to overthrow him. He used the same strategy three years later, when his efforts to cancel the opposition-controlled legislature triggered protests that went out four months later.

And now, while the last attempt of the opposition to end his presidency has three months, Maduro seems to hang back to power: he approves the sanctions against the oil industry, the ## 147 ## Isolating more than 50 countries, a parallel government set up a challenge, a series of constant military defections and a national cut in the six-day electrical service, as never before in the country.

At the same time, the United States has opted for a strategy of sanctions and other pressures that, according to the Trump government, would work quickly. But that did not happen and this week, Maduro has resumed the offensive.

On Thursday, Venezuelan intelligence agents entered the house of Roberto Marrero, head of the Juan Guaidó, leader of the opposition and arrested for being accused of being part of a terrorist cell.

Marrero has not been seen since then.

"The government is doing everything in its power to create a sense of frustration with Guaidó and make people lose confidence in him," said Geoff Ramsey, deputy director of Venezuelan affairs in the office. from Washington for Latin America. group of human rights.

"The increase in support for Guaidó has occurred in a few weeks," he continued. "They know it can go at the same speed."

Since Guaidó returned to Venezuela on March 4, the two men – each claiming to be the legitimate leader of the country – seem to be playing a sort of resistance game.

At one point, it seemed that Guaidó had the right to win; The number of countries that recognized him as Maduro 's substitute as the country' s legitimate leader was increasing, and the opposition declared that he was courting the country 's military forces for the purpose. they are at his side.

However, many believe that Guaidó's impetus has slowed.

In Caracas and its surroundings, it seems that Guaidó's message is confronted with the reality of many people whose main concern is to find food and water, in the midst of an economic crisis.

"Every time they organize a march, there is no transportation and I have to pay a taxi or a motorbike to go to work … I lose," said Gabriel Rondón, aged 25. years and living in El Hatillo, who works in a cafeteria "In neighborhoods, no one knows about Guaidó, I know his name, but that's all."

Another problem for Guaidó is the strategy of its main sponsor, the United States. The Trump government has bet that a barrage of sanctions in January and February will undermine Maduro so quickly that his armed forces would turn against him and impose Guaidó as president.

In addition to the oil sanctions of January, the United States attacked governors, generals, directors of the intelligence agency, the state oil company, a Russian bank partly owned by Venezuela, and canceled the visas of a dozen friends and relatives of Maduro. On Friday, the United States imposed new sanctions on the country's development bank and other institutions.

However, after using all his ammunition to help Guaidó, the United States has little influence on Maduro now that the conflict is prolonged.

"Maduro understood that the United States was already using their best cards and was starting to develop a medium-term strategy," said Columbia University professor Chistopher Sabatini, who is studying Venezuela.

Although economic sanctions continue to atrophy Venezuela's collapsed economy, Maduro seems to be trying to shield them. While US Venezuelan oil imports have fallen to zero this week, according to government statistics, Maduro has turned to other countries to buy Venezuelan oil, even though it must be sold at a lower price.

Until now, Maduro has also been able to hang on to his main diplomatic allies, China and Russia, who are wary of US intentions in the region and in respect of which Maduro owes a debt of billions of dollars. mainly with barrels of oil. A recent national power outage that occurred this month provided Maduro a path that would allow it to avoid criticism in the coming months as the situation in the country deteriorated.

The union of the state electricity company said that a fire had caused the power failure. However, Maduro has once again formulated a well-known badumption: a cyber attack, organized from Houston and Chicago, had been at the origin of the blackout.

Meanwhile, the Venezuelan government has used Trump's extreme statements, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and John Bolton, the national security advisor, to argue that the United States is behind a plot to overthrow Maduro, which has stated in the state media.

The arrest of Marrero was particularly shocking for the opposition and asked the question of what will happen next.

Marrero was arrested during a raid before dawn at his home; According to Néstor Reverol, the country's minister of the interior, "he was caught with weapons of war". Opposition representatives said the government had installed these weapons.

"This shows that the dictatorship does not care what the international community thinks," said Delsa Solórzano, an opposition parliamentarian close to Guaidó. He also added that it was particularly disturbing that this arrest took place while the United Nations Human Rights Commission, headed by Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, continues to investigate the violations committed by the Maduro government.

This week, Maduro tried to convey the idea that everything was returning to normal in Venezuela by broadcasting a recorded video with a mobile phone in which he is observed crossing the state of Aragua and greeting a crowd of supporters all over the country. by pursuing the steering wheel.

This was part of an effort to promote the Venezuelan auto industry, which has already collaborated with General Motors and Ford, but which has been very affected by the collapse of the economy.

Maduro announced the relaunch of a bus called Yutong, built with the help of Chinese investment. "Together we will achieve the big goals for the well-being of the country!" Writes Maduro on Twitter.

* Copyright: c.2019 New York Times News Service