Malamud: "There is room for a Bolsonaro only if the economy explodes, which is extremely improbable"

The political scientist said that Macri "has a chance" to be re-elected, even if evaluated according to the parameters we have modified, this could be considered a "failure".

Andrés Malamud believes that the government of

Mauricio Macri

he is confronted with a paradox: according to the goals imposed by the alliance itself, we changed when we arrived at Casa Rosada, his government failed; but at the same time, it keeps strong the membership of a significant part of the electorate that could give

re-election

, also ensuring that a non-Peronist government puts an end to its first mandate without institutional upheaval.

In an interview with LA NACION, the political scientist and principal investigator of the Institute of Social Sciences of the University of Lisbon badyzes the current situation and warns against the rise of extremist speeches that promote a strong hand or measures against migration , which "will take place during this year's campaign.However, he thinks there might be a place in Argentina for the anointing of a character like

Jair Bolsonaro

"Only if the economy explodes", what he considers as "extremely unlikely".

Malamud also badyzes the internal aspects of macrismo, between those who consider that it is necessary to open the space to the Peronist rulers – that, according to the political scientist, it is a matter of a "rapine" – and those who rely on the consolidation of space. "There are two visions: one that includes the alliance as temporary and one that considers it long-term," he said.

– Do you think it's possible to break the polarization?

-It is possible to break with polarization, understood as extremism, but not with bipolarity, understood as a division into two fields. The Argentine political space is structured around the axis Peronism, not Peronism, and each area can be moderate or extreme. At this moment, the polarizing element is

Cristina

which divides the Peronist field and lags it to an emotional, not ideological, extreme.

-How do you evaluate the current situation of Peronism? Do you think it is possible to unite with Citizen Unity?

-C is possible if Cristina goes out and anointed a moderate candidate. With her or with a tough Kirchner, no. I want to emphasize that I do not advocate the unity of Peronism, I only badyze its possibilities.

– Do you think that the level of extremism that appeared during campaigns abroad can occur in Argentina?

– In the hard speech, anti-immigration, surely; in the electoral success of a candidate to break up, like Bolsonaro or Trump, very difficult.

– Do you think Patricia Bullrich is a reference for this speech?

-Reference of a hard speech safe, yes; extremist in the anti-democratic sense, no.

– Is there a place in Argentina for a Bolsonaro?

-Only if the economy explodes.

-What does it refer to?

-Another dollar blow dragging the banking system. I see it extremely improbable.

– Do you think PASOs are useful?

-They are useful as a filter and as a welder, not for selecting candidates. As a filter, because in 2007, before the PASS, there were 14 candidates for the presidency, and in 2015, only 6: this increases transparency, reduces campaign costs and simplifies the life of the voter. PASO also serves as a welder when the parties use them to seal alliances, as they did to form Cambiemos (Pro-UCR-CC) and UNA (Mbada-De la Sota) in 2015. However, they are less used: Many leaders prefer to break their party and go to the outside rather than challenging the direction, and some conductions, such as that of Change, do not promote internal competition either.

-How do you evaluate change management?

-There are three ways to evaluate it. With the parameters they themselves have established, it is a failure: inflation and poverty will have increased after four years. With the parameters of the electorate, the thing is more encouraging: Cambiemos continues to lead the majority of the polls and is likely to be reelected. With the parameters of the story, if Macri finishes his term on December 10, he will have broken a 90-year curse: no president who is neither a Peronist nor a military president can end a constitutional mandate.

-There is a section of the ruling party that promotes the opening of change to other parties. Do you agree with this postulate or do you think that the macro-policy should aim at greater cohesion with the parties of the coalition?

– I understand that they do not promote the opening to other parties, but the rapin of leaders of other parties. It seems to me a strategy of deinstitutionalization which, independently of my appreciation, is contrary to the objectives proposed by Cambiemos.

-If this rapine is contrary to the objectives of the coalition, why do you think the sectors of change promote it?

-With change, we share two visions: the one that considers the alliance as temporary and the one that considers it in the long term. Those who hold the first vision prepare landing and emergency plans; those who hold the second prefer to consolidate the built.

– Macri is likely to be reelected?

– According to the Constitution, you have the right; according to the polls, you have a chance.

Despite corruption cases, Cristina Kirchner still retains a high level of membership. How is society's behavior explained?

– Corruption and economic performance have a limit to the motivation of the vote: that of the tribe. Just as you do not change your football team when your team plays badly and you go to B, people do not easily change their collective identity in the face of a rival tribe.

-In 2018, social issues such as the decriminalization of abortion and women's rights were included on the agenda. Do you think these questions will be at the heart of the campaign?

-The

decriminalization of abortion

no Candidates will be faced with the issue, but, being cross-cutting and cut across the electorate and major parties, they will not command either the vote or the campaigns. The importance of women will be present, although we still do not know if it will benefit those who promote it or a conservative reaction.

What would the conservative reaction consist of? Do you really see that in this context?

Yes Evangelicals already participate in the government of the three largest countries of the continent (United States, Brazil and Mexico) and everything indicates that in Argentina they add forces in two stages: first in alliance with Catholicism and then eating the base.

– Is there a party who capitalized these claims?

– Perhaps the porteño radicalism, the only one of the big ones who has been institutionally declared favorable to the legalization of the abortion.