Mass events would have little impact on COVID-19 transmission as face-to-face contact is more difficult, study warns

Mass events of more than 50 people might be safer than small gatherings of friends or family, as warned by researchers from the UK Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).

To come to this conclusion, they explained that in these types of towns, people do not mix with each other at large gatherings and rarely interact with each other, so experts believe they may not be at great risk of transmission.

But, nevertheless, they point out that smaller events occur more frequently and people have closer contact with those present, on birthdays, gatherings of friends, small events but groups of acquaintances or relatives.

This evidence could bode well for the organizers of recitals, concerts, sporting events and for the reconsideration of small capacity percentages in theaters.

The inquiry was presented in London to government advisers by members of the SAGE of the Universities of Bristol, Warwick, Manchester, Lancaster and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. His message? “Large groups of people have relatively little impact on an outbreak, under normal circumstances with pre-COVID contact patterns“.

According to the document, in normal life, large events involving more than 50 people make up only 0.5% of people’s interactions with others.

“Although there are more people around you, the chances of getting the virus from being around or touching someone are lower because people tend not to mix with most people. during large events, but rather to remain grouped in small quantities “, they underlined. .

“If one person attended a concert with 1000 people, but only spoke to five people, the number of group contacts would be reduced to those 5”They added.

The study suggests that around the 5.4% of COVID-19 cases could be linked to gatherings of more than 50 people during no lockdown. This compares to 18.9% of infections acquired in situations involving between 20 and 49 people and 25.2% which are transmitted in groups of 10 to 19 people in England.

The researchers did not study smaller groups: the current legal limit is six people for socializing in the case of the English, 15 for weddings or groups of parents and children and 30 for funerals.

The team’s modeling found that people’s close contact time increased with the number of people seen up to around 20 people., when it reaches a maximum of 29.5 hours of combined contact time in one day, among all.

Yes Although groups of 30, 40, or 50 people may have similar levels of contact time, they were less common..

During this time, small groups had plenty of contact time and were also very common, with meetings of 7-20 people making up 60 percent of all groups.

“Without social distancing and without assuming normal behavior, large groups of individuals have a relatively low epidemiological impact. Small and medium groups of 10 to 50 people have a greater impact on any epidemic, ”they point out in the SAGE document.

The study did not distinguish between indoor and outdoor gatherings, adding: “The trend of decreasing cases with increasing group size is observed both in groups of people who know each other and in groups of people who do not know each other.“.

The research was published by the government as part of the weekly SAGE Papers release, amid a context where the UK has started big tests for the reopening of massive events: a nightclub open for 6 thousand people in Liverpool.

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