Maximum tension in Brazil before the mobilisations against the Supreme Court called by Jair Bolsonaro on Independence Day

Brazil lives this Tuesday, its national holiday, a day of high tension with demonstrations summoned by President Jair Bolsonaro, which is seeking a show of force and massive support from its bases amid a fall in popularity, a clash with the courts and presidential elections looming on the horizon. There are also street protests promoted by sectors opposed to the president.

In large cities, especially in Brasilia and St.Paul, important safety devices have been deployed to avoid possible excesses and clashes between supporters of the two political sectors.

Early in the morning, Bolsonaro supporters have started to focus in Brasilia. There are tensions as some groups seek to get as close as possible to Congress and the Federal Supreme Court. Jair Bolsonaro He is already in place to lead the Independence Day event and, in turn, accompany the protests of his supporters.

However, according to the magazine See, the main concern is San Pablo given that at 2:00 p.m. local time (5:00 p.m. GMT) the two groups – those for and against the government – will march at the same time, although they are three kilometers apart. The mobilization in this city should be the largest in the country and Bolsonaro has already planned that he will also be present.

“The time has come to say on the 7th that we have become independent (…) to say that we do not accept that someone in Brasilia wants to impose their will”Bolsonaro exclaimed during a speech last week.

Was a clear allusion to the judges of the Supreme Court and the Superior Electoral Court Against whom he has been on the war footing for weeks after having opened several investigations against him and his entourage, among others for disseminating false information.

Friday, Bolsonaro went further and said the protests would be an “ultimatum” for judges of the highest court.. On Saturday, he raised the possibility of a Institutional “rupture”.

“Inflection point”

The former paratrooper, whose popularity is at an all-time low largely because of his handling of the pandemic, which has claimed 580,000 lives in the country, anticipates the marches in a big way: announced that he hopes to gather in the afternoon in São Paulo “more than two million people”.

It’s hard to imagine such a crowd on iconic Paulista Avenue, after the president only gathered a few tens of thousands in the country’s most populous city in recent protests.

For Geraldo Monteiro, political scientist at the State University of Rio de Janeiro, the president plays “To go all the pork“After having tightened the rope to the maximum with its recurring attacks on the electoral system, the Supreme Court and Congress.

“We’ve reached a point where everyone has to show their weapons, and that’s what Bolsonarism is going to try to do. They put a lot of energy into this demonstration, you just have to know if it will bring a large number of people into the streets.He opines.

According to him, this day of mobilization could “mark a turning point”.

If successful, Bolsonaro will offer a “show of force that can give you more leeway.” and new momentum for the 2022 presidential elections, in which polls show him to be largely defeated by former leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who has yet to confirm his candidacy.

But in the event of a fiasco, the president will be “even more cornered”, at the risk of being abandoned by his political allies and the business world.

“Calculated risk”

The President of the Supreme Court, Luiz Fux, expressed Thursday his concern about the bellicose tone of the president and his staunch supporters.

“In a democracy, protests are peaceful and freedom of expression should not be synonymous with threats or violence“, noted.

For the political scientist Andre rosa, the risk of violence is real. “Faced with opposition groups, Bolsonarist militancy is very reactive, so they will surely want to go to war. The Bolsonarist side is not peaceful, it is a pro-arms group. There will be police officers on leave, ex-soldiers“He warned.

Rosa, doctor in political psychology, It also does not rule out acts of vandalism, such as “broken glass at the Supreme Court”, located in the Plaza de los Tres Poderes in Brasilia, where the demonstration in favor of Bolsonaro will take place.

(With information from the Agencies)

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