May, an all-or-nothing month for the government

It was a fury Thursday. These days activate all alarms and exacerbate fears and reactions. Market behavior has lit red screens. The dollar, which has surpbaded 47 pesos and the country's risk, spanning 1,000 base points, dominated the agenda and dusted off the fatal allegory of the helicopter.

The hard core of the government remained firm in its convictions. In the middle of the alteration, everyone came out to say again and again that not only is there no "V corta plan", but there is also no " long plane B ".

Mauricio Macri does not come down, neither from the presidency, nor from the electoral race. This is the energetic message that was announced by the offices of the ruling party, while in the corridors of La Rosada, all sorts of versions were presented.

The President has planted the sentence that defines his interpretation of this, his worst moment: "The markets doubt our beliefs, they doubt the country for a possible return of Peronism to the elections of October". Faced with such a devastating observation, he explains what we already know: "The markets are different, it's another world, they are guys who hide behind a computer in a remote place, who buy, who sells, who have a shorter-term vision of opportunities, which do not know us and which should not know us. "

Macri returned to frame the cimbronazos of the economy in the electoral context.

The party in power has been trapped in its own strategy: it must shake Cristina's ghost, but the apparition was already out of control. Investors, frightened, are cured because of health problems complicating the economy, so that they place the Macri government on the brink. The fear of this accelerates the discredit and mistrust of it.

The word "edge" was used by the Financial Times. In a devastating article, the prestigious financial newspaper claims that "the fear of a payment default grows" and ensures: "Argentina has become the second most risky country in terms of sovereign debt in the world behind the Venezuela".

To badociate the grotesque of Venezuela with the economic measures taken by Macri is much more than one would expect.

This Friday, The country from Spain added the tension, under the headline: "Argentina examines the economic gap between doubts about the management of Macri." He states: "The possibility of a defect exists with Cristina Kirchner or without her".

With the hands of the IMF to intervene in the market to ease the instability of the green currency, actively and diligently confront the CFK literature and without third parties offering opportunities, the government goes round in circles vicious asphyxiant

Investors withdraw from their positions in pesos. The dollar is rising, prices are rising, and the strongest and fastest are food products, which have a direct impact on the inflation index and the mood of the majority. The perfect storm.

The only numbers that do not stop downloading are those of the presidential image. And if election expectations fall this Macri has renewed his mandate and CFK is growing, all over again.

Strange paradox: the more Macri is afraid, the more he fears the return of populism. Those who are supposed to wait for its continuity eventually sink it. To date, the forecasts are uncertain. "We must arrive in June" is the slogan of the moment. In government, it is clear that in May, they play all or nothing.

In the offices of the Rosada dominates the belief that the month that begins this Wednesday is decisive. All chips are meant to contain the dollar and reduce inflation. If these goals are not achieved, we will have to mix and give again. You already know that for these purposes, the month that ends is lost.

The boomerang effect of the hasty implementation of the "rescue plan", added to the green stampede, will be felt in the April CPI, already estimated at more than 4%. If inflation does not weaken during the month, there is little opportunity to build confidence. And without this vital contribution to governance, reaching October will be a test.

There is no possible electoral strategy if governance is not maintained and if there is no governance without trust, there is no confidence if inflation does not give way. Without at least three months of downward trend in the index measuring prices, there is no hope of becoming competitive in elections. They understood it well.

The men around the president are trying to maintain the morale of the troop itself but do not eat glbad. They recognize that the latest market turbulence has more to do with endogenous factors, typical of a stressed and fearful domestic market, than with global warming. Christina's fear and anti-macrismo that the "red circle" expresses unhindered are fed.

Many of those who criticize Roberto Lavagna's candidacy are now turning to Maria Eugenia Vidal with love. The governor of Buenos Aires was Tuesday "the spoiled child" of the lunch meeting of the Inter-American Council of Commerce and Production (CICYP). The candidacy of the former Minister of the Economy was diluted in an internal scrum as to the opportunity to address or not to the OSP, threatening to disintegrate any valid proposal for one third of the thirds..

Few people understand that Macri should go down and give way to his delphine. They consider it less worn, more empathic, capable of reinforcing consensus and conveying closeness, and open to enlarging the photo of possible chords. Mariú Vidal, who today seduces businessmen, has dodged the most pressing response to this table with elegance. Is there room for Plan V?

Despite persistent ratifications that Mauricio Macri is still in the race, in the corridors of power suggest that until June, no one will have the last word. Every minute counts, and in this context, a month is an eternity.

There is not much time left to cope, given the elections, the presidential competition beaten. The variables of the economy check the day-to-day management and remove the possibility of recovering levels of confidence that allow him to maintain acceptable levels of governability until today, October, far-away .

The president acknowledges his difficulties. Around him, he is seen as something more open and open to politics, talking to governors and allies, and fully aware of the limits of time. Meditating as a gesture of generosity and wisdom have left vacant the figure of vice.

It is they who believe that the alarming numbers that locate CFK nine points in a possible ballot can not yet be taken too seriously. Remember, there are seven months left for a second round. Another criterion is the criterion to be taken into account in PASO surveys. The August primaries worry more. A difference above the five points in the primaries, they point out, will be very difficult to overcome.