Mexico COVID-19 deaths drop: ‘Biden wall’ could be a factor

After suffering one of the deadliest coronavirus outbreaks in the world, Mexico is seeing a significant drop in cases, and The American vaccination campaign may be one of the reasonssay scientists.

Confirmed deaths from COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, have fallen by more than 85% since January, when a brutal second wave swept through the country. Mexico City, the epicenter of the pandemic, was on high alert that month for the first time in a year. Authorities say the capital’s coronavirus alert may soon turn from yellow to green, which means medium to low risk.

The abrupt the decrease in the number of cases relieved the exhausted hospital staff and a certain normality to a beaten nation. Over the weekend, the capital’s huge Estadio Azteca opened to fans for the first time in 14 months. Thousands of people attended a few quarterfinals in the Liga MX football league.

“We are coming back to life”said Álvaro Jesús Rosas, 35, car painter and fan of Cruz Azul de Mexico, as he made his way to the stadium.

Scientists and government officials say the pandemic appears to be easing, at least temporarily, due to increased levels of immunity on both sides of the US-Mexico border. Up to half of the Mexican population has developed antibodies because the coronavirus has circulated widely over the past year. In addition, US vaccines appear to block the spread of the virus in the south.

Scientists warn that Mexico is a long way from achieving “collective immunity” and that the variants could still wreak havoc. Officials are calling on people here to continue wearing masks and social distances. Yet for a country that has suffered at least 330,000 deaths from COVID-19, according to official estimates, the recent drop offers hope.

The 17-week drop in new cases is “very encouraging,” he said. The Washington Post Hugo López-Gatell, the government’s coronavirus czar. He noted that he could not rule out a third wave of infections. But if the United States and Mexico achieve high levels of immunity“, He said,” it would make it unlikely that a local outbreak would lead to a change in the national trend. “

The main reason for the drop in cases many Mexicans appear to have been exposed to the coronavirusLopez-Gatell said. A national government study found that 25% of participants tested positive for antibodies between August and November 2020. Then came the peak of infections during the Christmas season, the most intense of the pandemic. Today, the Health Ministry estimates that at least 50% of Mexicans are immune, mainly because they have been infected.

There can be another intriguing factor. Malaquías López-Cervantes, professor of public health at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, has dubbed him the “Biden wall”. With Almost half of the American population vaccinated with at least one injection, he said, fewer infections are transmitted to Mexico.

“The transfer of contagion across the border was very high,” López-Cervantes said.

De hecho, el Instituto de Seguridad Social del gobierno descubrió el año pasado que los anticuerpos contra el coronavirus eran más prevalentes en el noroeste, desde Baja California hasta los estados de Chihuahua, lo que refleja la intensidad de las infecciones en la region fronteriza, dijeron authorities.

Before the pandemic, López-Gatell said that “the intensity of transmission in the United States has determined a lot [de] what happened in Mexico ”. Now, the high vaccination rate in the United States “is having a positive effect in Mexico.”

Mexico has benefited not only from Americans immunized at its border. With vaccines in this country still relatively rare, around 12% of the population has received at least one injection, hundreds of thousands of Mexicans have also traveled to the United States to be vaccinated.

Roberto Bernal Gómez, secretary of health for the state of Coahuila in south Texas, pointed out that many residents have taken advantage of family ties to organize vaccines in the United States. “Most of the people who live along the border have access to it because they have children who are studying [en Estados Unidos] or they work there, ”he told reporters.

Although pandemic restrictions prohibit Mexicans from crossing the border without having to travel, many residents can cross, either because they have dual nationality or because they have work, school appointments. or medical on the other side.

Meanwhile, a rush of vaccine hunters from inside Mexico is so intense that the number of plane tickets to cities in Texas has increased. Travel agencies are making great deals on tourist vaccine packages that include airfare, hotel, transfers, and vaccinations.

Mexico ranks fourth in the world for confirmed coronavirus deaths, after the United States, Brazil and India. The change is even more remarkable when South America is besieged by a third wave of coronavirus. Mexico may benefit from a warmer spring climate as winter approaches in the southern hemisphere. Another difference seems to be that the variants have not spread widely in Mexico. “To some extent it’s a mystery” why they didn’t become dominant, said López-Gatell.

Scientists warn against complacency; point out that the coronavirus has been unpredictable around the world. “We have seen time and again that new waves can emerge after a period of apparent calm,” said Jaime Sepúlveda, a former senior Mexican health official who now heads the Institute of Global Health Sciences at the University. from California to San Francisco.

Even with half of Mexicans possibly immune to the virus, he said, the other half are still susceptible. “And that’s a lot of people.”

His institute recently published a report criticizing Mexican authorities for their handling of the pandemic, claiming to have carried out too few tests, provided insufficient financial support to workers and failed to coordinate an effective national response. The government has blamed the intensity of the epidemic in Mexico on high levels of co-morbidities such as diabetes and heart disease, and social factors such as housing density and poverty.

The state of Quintana Roo, home to the resorts of Cancun and Tulum, shows the dangers that still lurk. It is the only one of Mexico’s 32 states in which coronavirus cases have steadily increased. Authorities blame the spring breakers and Easter tourists who have filled bars and nightclubs. Governor Carlos Joaquín warned last week of an “imminent risk” of further closure.

Even in places where cases have fallen, many remain skeptical about the end of the crisis. “You can’t help but notice what’s going on in India and Brazil,” said Marco Silva, 50, a businessman who attended a game at Azteca Stadium on Saturday. “We are paying attention.”

Yet Mexico City is more dynamic than it has been in months. While city closures haven’t been as severe as in other countries, sidewalk cafes and parks are suddenly full of people. Banks and restaurants can stay open longer, stores can fill up to 40% of their capacity and the Azteca stadium, the largest in the country, has been able to sell tickets for a quarter of its 87,000 seats for the matches. end of season.

“We still have a long way to go,” said Rosas, the automotive painter. He continues to mourn the deaths of an aunt and two uncles during the pandemic. But going back to a football game was a big step towards normalcy.

“We are ready,” he said.

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