Middle East: A conflict that threatens to worsen in the face of a divided Arab world without leaders

Predict and the Middle East are incompatible words. Very few today dare to predict what might happen in a conflict that threatens to escalate regionally after missiles are launched from southern Lebanon into Israel. The dead are more than a hundred in the Gaza Strip and the rockets launched from this Palestinian enclave against the Israeli territory exceed a thousand.

The umpteenth crisis affecting Israelis and Palestinians occurs in the face of an Arab world which no longer reacts against Israel as it did in the past. The reason? “Basically because We’re not in the 70s or 80s. Arab unity on the Palestinian question is not as strong as it was 20, 30 or 40 years ago. Several countries in the region have already recognized Israel, ”he said. TN.com.ar the Venezuelan academic Jairo Lugo-Ocando, Director of Executive and Graduate Education and Resident Professor at Northwestern University in Doha, Qatar.

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Lugo-Ocando, a graduate in media and communication studies from the University of Sussex and a master’s degree from Lancaster University in international relations, said the new conflict had not sparked the massive marches in favor of the Palestinian cause in the region where they were organized. until a few years ago. “It was only in Doha,” he said, “that there were demonstrations.”

“It is happening at the government level. In Arab cities, this support remains unchanged», He indicated.

In this regard, the Israeli Ambassador to Argentina, Angry Ronensaid this Thursday in TN that recently, his country has signed peace agreements “with four Arab countries: Morocco, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Sudan”.

“We already have 6” such treaties with the Arab world, in addition to those signed in the past with Egypt and Jordan, he explained.

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What is happening in Arab countries

Lugo-Ocando, who has lived in Doha for three and a half years, assured that “ the governments of the Middle East they were much more careful“In this new military escalation. “There was not that automatic solidarity this has been seen in previous years ”, and added:“ Not only in the Palestinian question. Neither in the case of the Chinese Muslim minority ”, the Uyghurs, who live in the western region of Xinjiang.

“There was no such automatic solidarity despite the fact that in my opinion Israel made a disproportionate response,” he said.

However, the Arab League, through its secretary general, Ahmed Abulgueit, condemned the Israeli attacks on Gaza which left more than 100 people dead, including at least 13 children, and warned that “there was not a single incident in which the violence started on the Palestinian side“.

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The professor considered that “the domestic politics and the interests of the Arab countries have changed a lot” and underlined that today is a rather different context from that which existed 20 or 30 years ago.

“All the rockets that are launched from the Gaza Strip come from Hamas, which rules Gaza and has mostly Iranian support. But 30 years ago, when Iraq was still under Saddam Hussein’s command, Palestinians have huge support from Baghdad. Moreover, Syria was not at war. The Palestinians had a broader base of support, especially from more secular regimes, such as Syria and Iraq, ”he noted.

He added: “Today Iraq is a very fragmented country, with very little force in the north, in the Kurdistan region. Syria is in ruins. Palestinians don’t have that base of support today. He ends up with the Arab regimes in the Gulf, which were very supportive. The Arab world is very fragmented and does not have the same capacity to respond», He affirmed.

Lugo-Ocando recalled that Egypt “was a great support for the Palestinians”, but lost the weight of the other years. However, Cairo remains the main hope for mediation in the conflict. In addition, American influence, according to the analyst, has diminished in the region.

Jairo Lugo Ocando, analyst

Washington has much less influence in the region than it did 30 years ago

“The United States is still a very powerful military element, but after Iraq its troops will leave Afghanistan on September 11. In Syria, the Russians are much more present. Washington has much less influence in the region than it did 30 years ago. For this reason, their mediation capacity is lower, ”in addition to the fact that their historic support for Israel still generates mistrust in the Arab world, he said.

In this sense, Ambassador Ronen said that in previous conflicts, such as that of 2014, Egypt, the United States, Russia and Germany mediated between the parties.

“And they’re already moving. Let’s see if they can. I hope so, but for the moment there has been no success, ”he said.

What is Iran’s role

Tehran is a key ally of Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah, the Shiite movement close to the Iranian government and responsible for the AMIA attack. “Hamas enjoys financial and military support from Iran, but Tehran lacks the capacity to unify the Arab world around Palestine,” Lugo-Ocando said.

“Qatar is the only Arab country in which Iran has more or less stable relations, as both share the largest gas reserves in the world,” he said.

Hamas, responsible for launching hundreds of rockets at Israel in recent days, has ruled the Gaza Strip since 2006, when it won elections in that enclave by defeating its political rival, Fatah, which rules the West Bank. The group is considered a terrorist organization by the United States, Israel, and the European Union, among others.

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Ambassador Ronen recalled that “the letter from Hamas says that the only way” to create a Palestinian state is Jihad, “holy war”.

“The problem is that these extremists control the Gaza Strip. With the ANP (Palestinian National Authority which governs the West Bank), we have had negotiations and agreements. We are vaccinating 100,000 Palestinians and their health team, but Hamas is a terrorist and anti-Semitic organization», Affirmed the diplomat.

Galit Ronen, Ambassador of Israel

Imagine if 1,700 rockets fell in Buenos Aires. What would they do?

He added: “If it was possible to make a truce, we are ready, but I don’t think it is possible. We need the rockets to stop. If it stops, everything stops. Israel protects its citizens and nothing else. We react because it is our obligation as a State. Imagine if 1,700 rockets fell in Buenos Aires. What would they do? He asked.

“At some point,” he insisted, “we have to end the threat against our civilians. It’s our duty “.

For Lugo-Ocando, in the midst of this conflict which threatens the Middle East, “one of the effects of the crisis is the competition of Muslim countries to assume Arab leadership in the world”.

And he said: “What exists is an international leadership vacuum in the region“.

The Israeli home front

For the analyst, it is also necessary to assess the internal situation of Israel. “The country is in the hands of a leader who is clashing with his own political survival. The government of Benjamin Netanyahu it is based on minimum agreements. Today, what defines Israeli policy are the extreme right groups, “which tip the scales through coalitions despite being a minority, he said.

The conflict, according to Lugo-Ocando, underlies the Israeli government.

And he concluded: “The Arab-Israeli population represents 20% of the total. If anyone manages to unify it, it would be a danger to Israel. “