Naaju Breaking News, Live Updates, Latest Headlines, Viral News, Top Stories, Trending Topics, Videos
[ad_1]
It's as it should be and should always be, definitely. But, from where it comes, the government needs to recognize something: respect for the independence of INDEC, the statistical center of the national state created in 1968, and not a appendage of power for all intents and purposes as it was in the dark era of the time. Intervention Kirchnerist.
What you need to know today | The most important news of the day to read in ten minutes
Monday to Friday morning.
If an extreme simplification was possible, one could say that the good thing about this revived organism is that nothing is saved. And the bad thing, if you can call it that, is that what is not saved shake the macrismo.
Without going too far, the INDEC published since March 14 a dozen long indicators of those who are always or usually news. Only one group in this group proved to be good news for the government: it chanted a consecutive trade surplus for the sixth time in a row after a series of endless imbalances, some of which impressive; dollars that are finally scarce.
For the rest sends a common seal: all that should go up, down and what would be good to go down, to climb. Inflation in its retail, wholesale, and construction cost versions; unemployment, underemployment, moonlighting and poverty; super-sales, stores and self-service stores; wages, GDP and industrial activity. None for, do not just talk about the interests of Casa Rosada.
In recent days, it has fallen to tenth rank according to the Industrial Production Index (IPI). The February issue was the lowest in the series started in 2016 and crowned the third longest plant recession of all those who started in 1980; almost since prehistory.
In front of such data, the technique of measurement of the last month compared to the previous month is a watering; this time, it would be February against January and raise 2.4%. The argument is true that it makes it possible to note a possible change in trend, but there is another thing that is also true: the measure has the advantage of giving much better than comparing with the same period of time. the previous year recommended by the manuals.
Clearly, the IPI fell by 8.5% compared to February 2018 and 9.7% in bimonthly variants compared to bimetric versions.
It is difficult to get there, that "the worst of the crisis was left" by Nicolás Dujovne. And also value the minister's other arguments, as the recession hit the ground in December and the economy is recovering.
Better than statistics, will tell people's perception and way of life if the wind direction has really changed. For now, we have more than 16 manufacturing sectors studied by INDEC, that of tobacco production.
Among the victims there were several monumental: 49% for TVs and electronics; 50% in the iron and steel industry; 59.5% in agricultural machinery and 69.4% for motorcycle manufacture until recently impetuous. Now he has just added cars, with 41% of March informed by Adefa.
Less than numbers, already people of flesh and bone are talking about a social security data that appears in the AFIP page. Only between the end of 2015 and the beginning of 2019, pure macrismo, 113,600 jobs were lost in the industry, 9% in just three years and the piquito.
Thus, the current allocation is almost identical to that of 2007, that is to say that eleven years ago. That is 1,150,059 jobs; that is, similar to the amount occupied by the commercial sector.
Nothing strange, because in total withdrawal, the factories' GDP was at its 2008 level and 10 percentage points below the 2011 peak. The costs here, the costs here.
INDEC statistics indicated that, by its magnitude, sounds in a positive direction: with January, construction activity recorded a growth of 8.3%. Of course, in the interannual variant, it has been out of order for six months.
But the magnitude of the collapse is such that even the World Bank itself is worried. According to the chief economist for Latin America and the Caribbean, Uruguayan Carlos Vegh has just said: "The fiscal adjustment necessary to comply with the IMF program a high price in terms of economic activity and the (Argentine) weight has once again suffered a setback. "The news of an institution born in 1944, as well as the Monetary Fund and Heat of the post-war, an institution that also knows a lot about these issues.
There would be a question, even in the midst of the rigidity of the plan and the emergencies posed by the financial control of the country. Specifically, if with a dose of ingenuity, it would not be possible to detach the drug in a way that would be less traumatic. What is obvious is that if something existed or existed, This seems insufficient.
Vegh has made further progress, now on the limits, not to mention the veto the Fund imposes on the central bank's exchange rate policy. Sentenced: "Personally, it would be from the idea that Argentina could intervene in the exchange group ". It is understood that we intervene directly to contain the endless collisions of the dollar, which is to say that in pbading, the monetary rigor and the interest rates through the clouds are not enough.
The strong statement of Christine Lagarde that accompanied the promise of 10 870 million US dollars expected by the government as a holy water did not exist.
The IMF chief called for "cautious spending" and "other measures to increase tax revenue". Translated: to deepen the adjustment by the two possible ways, until the balancing committed for 2019.
Not a single concession however, there was a BCRA intervention on the market or a band system that encouraged it. It sounded like repeating that the fund's money was not to be used to limit dollar hikes.
Another Dujovne: "The volatility of the dollar is really very low," he said Wednesday. That Wednesday, the price of the bank note was $ 43.84; everything is fine except that Friday closed the record of $ 44.96. A jump of 2.25% in two days, very similar to very high volatility.
Lagarde praised the efforts of the economic team, but gave no commendable warning: "The results in terms of inflation have been disappointing". But if it's about disappointments, there's one that directly affects the Lagarde team that is negotiating with Argentina: when it validated the first adjustment, his inflationary badumption was 20%.
.
[ad_2]
Source link
