Morales: more rejected in cities, more beloved in rural areas

President Evo Morales has generated more positive perceptions (57%) in rural cities than in capitals, where the rejection indicators expressed reach 60%, according to the study conducted by Tal Cual for La Razón.

The sample, consisting of 2,250 interviews, was taken between April 25 and May 12 with a maximum margin of error of 2.5 points. The nine cities, in addition to El Alto; 17 intermediate towns and 31 country towns were part of this work which coincided with the outbreak of the so-called Montenegro case, in which police officers are involved in drug trafficking.

In rural areas, 57% of the population, or five out of ten Bolivians, expressed their "positive sentiment" in favor of President Morales. If this happens in rural areas, in the intermediate cities, 47.03% have a "positive feeling" vis-à-vis the figure of the head of state, according to these data.

In the opposite direction, 60.69% showed a "negative sentiment" towards Morales, which means that six out of 10 Bolivians living in cities gave it a disapproval rating.

The overall results indicate that there is a "negative sentiment" of 51% for Morales; the "positive feeling" is second with 37.07% and the "neutral feeling" adds 12%.

REASONS The leader and counselor of La Paz for the Movement to Socialism (MAS), Jorge Silva, said yesterday that recognition to the head of state is not limited to rural areas. "It's also in the popular neighborhoods of cities, where President Morales is very attached to a clbad identity."

Consulted on the 60.69% who would reject Morales in the cities, Silva was attentive. "No wonder this vote is precisely in these sectors (cities) Since 2005, of the 35% who voted against the MAS, 90% were in centers where the middle and upper clbades are located."

Bolivian Senator Edwin Rodríguez, Bolivia's vice presidential candidate says no (21F), admitted that one of the outstanding issues of the opposition would be to be present in rural areas. "It's true, we need to work more in the field and that's why we are making alliances with indigenous and peasant organizations," he added.

Rodríguez estimates that the 56.98% who express their "positive feeling" vis-à-vis the figure of Morales in rural areas "are actually controlled by trade unions that control the bases under sanctions mechanisms". The senator, who identifies himself as a native of northern Potosí, also said corruption cases also affected the detected score.

Ricardo Paz, Campaign Advisor for Community Citizen (CC), said yesterday that he was relying more on the results of the urban area. "Regarding the urban area, the sample is representative, but in rural areas, it is not very important, I do not trust." According to Tal Cual, the CC candidate, Carlos Mesa , which is 11 points behind Morales, met on March 29 with representatives of the 20 provinces of La Paz in El Alto, precisely in order to request a rural vote on October 20. .

The survey also revealed that 28.62% of respondents expressed a "positive feeling" with regard to Morales in capitals. In rural areas, 32.09% also have "negative feelings", well below the 57% positive rating.

In the case of intermediate cities, after 47.03% increase, 34.59% gave a negative score.

To quantify negative and positive expressions, investigators also asked respondents to rank the head of state on a scale of one to 100 points. A 31.20% was in the sub-category of 20 to 45 points and 23.64%, in the subgroup of 55 to 80 points.

The Tal Cual survey, the first urban-rural application field, was developed at five months of this year's general election.

Rural is crucial

By Armando Ortuño, Electoral Analyst

In electoral terms, rural areas are very important, not only because they still represent a significant percentage of the electoral register, about 30%, but also because they have focused their electoral preferences over the last 10 years within a single political force, the one that presides over the party. President of the State, Evo Morales.

The Tal Cual survey confirms the notable presence of the ruling party among rural voters: only three out of 10 people have a negative perception of Evo Morales. Therefore, this political leader could count on a potential electorate of nearly 70% in the thousands of small towns and scattered rural areas that make up the national territory. This is an intense vote that can upset the expectations of candidates located primarily in capitals and badysts encapsulated in urban universes and social networks.

Needless to say, this behavior has its rationality: the improvement of infrastructure and the reduction of poverty are always perceived with greater intensity by those who have always been excluded. In addition, there is the social relevance of the farmers' organizations in these places and the obvious identification of many of them with a president of rural and indigenous origin.

In fact, these people also have different priorities and perceptions about the country's problems: they are relatively more concerned with economic problems and social services, and less so with institutional problems such as corruption or crime.

Thus, in rural areas, the indicators of concern presented by this survey regarding lack of opportunities, even, are lower than those of intermediate cities.

As in no other election, this strong differentiation between urban and rural electoral behavior will weigh on the final result after October 20. It is also an additional challenge for the candidate imposed in these nationwide elections: to govern for all, including those who, in some areas and territories, voted overwhelmingly for another option.

(5/24/2019)