more and more people want the government to “lose the election”

Jorge Giacobbe He was the first consultant to measure the electoral pulse of legislatures this year. He did so in mid-2020, when the agenda was monopolized by the coronavirus pandemic. He asked a single question to elucidate the most basic parameter: do people want Front de tous / government to win or lose the election? Then the two variables made their debut. But today, the party in power is in a complex moment: more and more people want a defeat K.

Jacob is one of the analysts with more media presence. He was a regular panelist on certain programs and is regularly consulted on radio and television. As a consultant, he publishes national polls bimonthly. In 2019, like most pollsters, he was far behind in his forecast.

“What is your position concerning the next legislative elections in 2021?”, He repeated as an electoral question in his latest book, out of 2,500 cases investigated between April 26 and April 28, it was published a few days ago .. And those who They want the Frente de Todos / government to lose they hit a peak of 59.2%. In June 2020, the first test, they added 42.9%. In other words, they have increased by about 26 points in just one year.

On the other side, those who they want an official victory, they have now reached the 28.9%, some 8 points below of the initial parameter. They finished the “I do not care” (10.9% in the latest study, 18.9% in June 2020) and the “don’t know, no answer” (almost unchanged, approximately 1%).

Thus, if other national surveys published in recent weeks are observed, the the ruling party’s floor is around 30 points, far from those 48 with whom Alberto Fernandez Yes Cristina Kirchner they won the last presidential election.

The nearly 60 from the opposition it is expected that they are for the most part Together for change, even if the dispersion of offers in the anti-K spectrum does not allow today to predict a result for these elections of 2021.

The STEP confirmation, even with a month postponement (they will run from early August to early September), this is good news for the main opposition alliance. Because? Because we suppose that between the primaries and the general (they will be it on November 14) it will be able to increase its flow by capturing this desire that the Front de Tous loses. This is what has been happening in elections since the rift was installed as the axis of the political conflict.

In any case, as analysts have clarified, the intermediate legislatures are in fact made up of 24 local elections. And there various readings can be made on the result: a national perspective, bringing together all the districts; another more focused on the large provinces (with an axis mainly in Buenos Aires); and even a third, counting the seats won and lost for each space.

Giacobbe’s analysis

As part of the report, Jorge Giacobbe analyzes the image and voting intention numbers. And he speaks of a remarkably stable scenario, despite the ups and downs of the country’s reality:

– “A few days before the last announcement (extension of the food menu), the image of Alberto Fernández has lost a positive point and gained a negative one. since February it has been around 27/28% positive and 60% negative. No vaccine shipment makes him grow taller, but no VIP vaccination causes him to fall. The Frente de Todos family of electoral products, including Cristina Kirchner Yes Axel Kicillof, pass the same fate “.

– “It is counter-intuitive to think that in the midst of a constant crisis the images are stable. But it can happen that everyone is already on the floor and the ceiling possible developments ”.

– “On the opposition side, the same thing is happening. Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, Patricia bullrich Yes Maria Eugenia Vidal they move in hundredths in a range of 35 to 40% positives and 40% negatives. The only slow but stable process that we check is the growth of the negative image of Rodríguez Larreta. Until the end of last year, it kept a third of the population in a “regular” picture. This third decomposes by streaming becoming negative. “

– “The same goes with the generic electoral scenario: 28.9% support the Frente de Todos against 59.2% who will seek tools to produce a defeat in the legislative elections of 2021. Far from noticing how the chambers of senators are doing and of deputies be configured, Argentines will go to the polls to pet or slap the government. Do not look for the return, it will not be more than that. “