More or less Europe: The battle to be waged during the most dramatic legislative elections of the continent

That the United Kingdom is the first country to go to the polls in the European parliamentary elections this week reveals the enormous complexity of this historic moment on the continent. It was badumed that at this stage he would no longer be part of the EU and that, for this reason, he would not elect representatives.

However, Brexit turned out to be much more difficult than expected and Brussels had to grant an extension to the UK. As it will continue to be part of Europe for at least another few months, its 50 million voters will have to choose Thursday the 73 MEPs corresponding to its population.

The British are one of the largest delegations of the European Parliament, which has 751 members. Only France, with 79 representatives, and Germany, with 96, who voted on Sunday 26, like most countries.

There is little at stake. Although the chaos of Brexit means that no party concerned plans to leave the Union today, there are more and more political forces. call to add as many seats as possible to fight the European institutions of the interior.

Between the 2014 elections and the current elections, many votes were held to elect national authorities in all the countries of the region. In many of them, there has been sustained advance of populist parties of the far rightwho dusted off nationalist flags and demanded greater autonomy for their states.

Opinion polls agree that these movements will have an important place in the next European Parliament, although the scale of growth remains to be seen. Its plan to weaken the mechanisms of regional integration runs up against a wide range of moderate parties – center-left and center-right, liberal and conservative – who agree on the need to strengthen 39; EU.

"A first question is whether anti-European MEPs will be in the majority or not, I do not expect this to be the case, but if it were the case, it would represent a political crisis with unpredictable ramifications, which could put an end to the European project and mark the return to nationalism it caused centuries of war in Europe. Even if they do not get the majority, the dynamics of Parliament will no longer be between the left and the right, but between pro-European and anti-European forces. It will also be dangerous for the survival of the EU, "he said. Infobae Gerard Roland, professor of economics and politics at the University of California at Berkeley, specializes in Europe.

Two opposing models

So far, the EU has always been ruled by a coalition of centrist forces. On the one hand, the European People's Party (EPP), which brings together the main center-right formations of the continent. On the other hand, the Party of European Socialists (PES), which brings together the Social Democrats. All indications are that this alliance will no longer be sufficient in itself to control the main institutions.

"Over the past decade, we have faced many difficult challenges in Europe. In 2008, the financial crisis and the rescue and austerity policies that followed in Greece. For 2015, we have witnessed a large influx of refugees and no consensus has been reached on whether to host them or not, or who should do it. I think there is a general feeling of social injustice and weak solidarity. Many people think they have been excluded from major social changes in the economy, that an elite tells them what to do and save, while paying the bill for that change. And they feel that the dominant parties do not take their concerns seriously, "said Isabelle de Coninck, researcher at the Institute of Public Governance of the University KU Leuven in Belgium, consulted by Infobae.

This long-standing malaise has created the favorable conditions for the emergence of populist leaders and parties. The rupturists, without worrying too much about the applicability of their proposals, managed to convince many dissatisfied people with rhetoric that attributed problems to elites who were more interested in welcoming immigrants than giving work to their own people.

"The anti-Europeans are the socialists and the people, who turned a dream into a nightmare, into prison. I feel more pro-European than pro-Europeans, as long as we are talking about a Europe before Maastricht, where people were talking about social protection and full employment, "said Matteo Salvini in a box. in Piazza del Duomo, Milan.

Italian deputy prime minister, undisputed leader of Eurofobo populism, is working politically to gather in Eurocámara all these parties in full swing. That's why he animated the closing of the campaign, which was attended by Marine Le Pen, leader of the French National Association, and Dutch Geert Wilders, of the Dutch Freedom Party, who concluded his speech by the cry of "Basta Islam, enough Islam!"

Representatives from Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Slovakia, Estonia, Finland and the Czech Republic also took part in the mbad demonstration in Milan. The hope is to create a parliamentary bloc with 12 formations, named Europe of Nations and Freedoms (ENL).

"There are many variations between countries." In some countries, like France or Italy, radical right parties are popular right now, but polls do not predict their victory in others, like Denmark, for example. The consequences of the economic crisis and the migration crisis provided a fertile ground for these parties, which could capitalize on the failure of the main forces of left and right. With clear and simple messages linking immigration to the EU, they take advantage of the discontent of certain segments of the population. Some also develop a protectionist economic agenda, which attracts the votes of those who formerly opted for leftist parties, "said Nathalie Brack, a professor at the Institute of European Studies at the Université Libre de Paris. Brussels, in dialogue with Infobae.

To understand this process, it is necessary to go beyond Europe. With nuances, in almost everyone, especially in developed countries, we see something similar. The economic, social and cultural changes of recent decades have been too dramaticand traditional politics is not able to give a convincing answer to new challenges.

"This reflects a global movement to reject globalization," Roland said. The Brexit, the election of Donald Trump and the rise of populist parties are part of the same phenomenon. Most research shows that support for these movements is linked to the effects of the 2008 crisis. Millions of people have been injured, lost their jobs, their homes, creating enormous uncertainty and anxiety. The populist parties fed on it and blamed foreigners, immigrants, refugees, Jews and minorities. In Europe, this has been exacerbated by the fact that the center-right and center-left parties have supported the German government's austerity policies. "

However, it would be wrong to imagine a triumph of populism in Europe. In many countries, one expects that they will get meager results, and in others, they might even lose some of the territory that they have acquired.. The best example may be Austria, where Heinz-Christian Strache, leader of the far-right Liberal Party of Austria, recently managed to join the government as a minority partner of Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, comes from resign for the broadcast of a video in which he accepted an impudent exchange of favors with Russian oligarchs.

"There is no general trend in all EU countries In some countries, like France and the United Kingdom, the right-wing populist parties have already performed well in previous European elections In others, such as Denmark and Greece, it may be that lost compared to 2014. And in others, like Germany, it is possible for greens to advance more than # 39; them. The increase of the radical right in the European Parliament will be mainly a consequence of the important results that the League (Salvini) hopes to get in Italy."he said to Infobae Wouter Wolfs, European Policy Specialist at KU Leuven.

An election that can mark the future of the bloc

The big fight that will take place after the elections concerns the appointment of the authorities. The most important are the president of the Commission, who would be the executive power; the President of the Council, which is responsible for moderating the resolutions adopted by the 28 Heads of State and Government of the EU as a whole; and the head of the central bank.

The party with the largest number of seats nominates a candidate for the presidency of the Commission, but it must have the necessary majority to fill this position. Salvini and ENL's maximum goal is to influence the nomination of who will succeed the Europeanist Jean-Claude Juncker, declared enemy of the populists.

"The Eurosceptics," said Brack, "could claim more positions in Parliament and have a direct and indirect impact on the direction of certain policies, such as the granting of asylums and immigration, investments in borders, trade and the degree of sovereignty Member States. Finally, it is likely that the camera is more fragmented, which will complicate the search for agreements. The risk is a stagnation of European integration. "

It is clear that the idea of ​​the EU as a permanently expanding bloc has been buried, integrating new members and expanding the delegation of state faculties. Few dare to propose today things that would have been accepted without much discussion in the early 2000s. The Europeanists have put themselves on the defensive and are convinced that the advances of the last decades are not reversed.

"It is likely that it will be increasingly difficult to reach agreements. The EPP and the ESP will continue to be the most important groups, but with fewer seats in between. Therefore, they will be under pressure to seek consensus with other forces, especially the group of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe. Decision making can be more complex, "said Karl Magnus Johansson, professor of political science at the University of Södertörn, in dialogue with Infobae.

The hope for the supporters of a more united Europe is deposited in the divisions of populism. Although the Salvini and Le Pen leaders make constant efforts to work together, they have profound differences and the supranational pacts are not in their DNA.

"In addition to Islam as a threat to "Christian Europe" and aversion to immigrants and refugees, there is little agreement between them Said De Coninck. They do not seem to have a clear idea of ​​how they want to correct the EU. In general, they favor weakening the competencies of their institutions and restoring key functions at the national level. But they have very few concrete projects on how to design an EU they can support. His rhetoric remains empty and vague and many differences persist. It's a force to be reckoned with, but we should not exaggerate their impact. "

That is why, despite all the reasons to think that the European project could be threatened, some badysts believe that the changes will not be abrupt and that the institutionality of the block will remain intact. At least for the next five years, for the term of office of MEPs elected from Thursday.

"I do not think there is any long-term negative effect"He said to Infobae Daniel Stockemer, professor of political studies at the University of Ottawa. "Without a doubt, the far-right parties will be a little more present in Parliament, but will remain limited to 15% or fewer seats, there will be a strong pro-European majority and a cordon sanitaire around the EU. extreme right, "he concluded.